The Ashes: Analysis, past results and betting pointers for the fourth Test at Old Trafford

Overview:

The first Ashes Test match since cricket lost the great Shane Warne will leave many with a sense of sadness, as if a piece of Ashes furniture is missing.

Warne’s star was born on this very ground back in 1993 when the Australian’s first ball in Ashes cricket ripped past Mike Gatting’s defences. It would become known as the Ball of the Century.

30 years later and Warne would most certainly have approved of the cricket played this summer, Australia hard-nosed and efficient, England more attacking and carefree – both teams very good.

It's a great shame that Warne didn’t live to see Bazball – one suspects he would have approved – but a series already rivalling the 2005 edition that was the leg spinner's finest hour promises to deliver another thrilling chapter in cricket’s fiercest rivalry.

2019 Ashes: Australia won by 185 runs

Australia: 497-dec & 186-6dec

England: 301 & 197

Man of the Match: Steve Smith 211 & 82

Having been stunned by Ben Stokes’ Miracle of Headingley in the previous Test, Australia bounced back with a dominant display that saw them retain the Ashes at Old Trafford.

Big first innings runs proved decisive, Australia winning a good Toss and racking up a huge total as Steve Smith compiled a brilliant double-hundred to continue his stellar series.

England managed 301 in reply, but conditions slowly started to deteriorate and though they fought hard in their second innings, the hosts were unable to save the game as Australia finally broke their resistance late on the final day.

Last Test match: England v South Africa, 2022 – England won by an innings and 85 runs

South Africa: 151 & 179

England: 415-9dec

Man of the Match: Ben Stokes 2-17, 103 & 2-30

A hard match to analyse in terms of what to expect this summer. England ran out convincing winners, but much of that was down to how poorly their opponents performed, particularly with the bat.

South Africa twice failed to reach 200, but England’s first innings was much more like it for Manchester as Ben Stokes and Ben Foakes made centuries in a total of 415-9 declared.

Interestingly, both teams lost early wickets throughout the match on a pitch offering typically good pace and some early seam movement. Zak Crawley’s 38 was the best score any of the openers managed.

Nevertheless, this looked a typical Manchester pitch which rewarded those seamers willing to bend their backs, but also allowed for runs to be made if batsmen were able to get in and set. Spin played a part as the match wore on, too.

Betting pointer:

With an unsettled long-range weather forecast, seamers on both sides will be hoping for more swing when the fourth Test comes around than one usually expects at this ground.

Traditionally, Manchester offers a hard, abrasive surface that suits quick bowlers who can hit the pitch hard at good pace. Seam movement generally plays more of a role than conventional swing, though the ball can reverse here if conditions are dryer than we expect this week.

As such, Australia have generally enjoyed playing at Old Trafford as conditions tend to closer mirror what they get at home, and clear skies would make a few in their batting line-up interesting propositions for big runs.

The first two County Championship matches played here this season both ended in draws as batting proved relatively easy and big runs were scored, from first innings to last.

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