‘The betting markets early in the week are just poison!'
Amelia’s Jewel returns in the Let’s Elope Stakes on Saturday. Picture: Western Racepix
Every Thursday, News Corp Australia's national racing editorial director Matt Williams and senior racing writer Ben Dorries chat all things horse racing.
Matty and Benny's weekly ramblings continue as the spring carnival reaches fever pitch.
MW: Benny, a lot are questioning why Imperatriz's owners aren't running her in the $20 million Everest but it's a slot race. The owners have to split the winnings with the slotholders and invariably the slotholders do better out of the deal. As an example my old man's horse, Gytrash, ran third in The Everest in 2020 which was $1.3 million prizemoney. Without saying exactly what the owners received, it was a lot less than half of the $1.3 million by the time the slotholder, jockey and trainer took their slice. A deal might be 50/50 if they win but further down the placings they go, the slotholder usually takes more of a cut. In contrast, Gytrash won his next start in the Yes Yes Yes Stakes and the owners pocketed $1.13 million because there was no slotholder involved.
BD: I'm one of those questioning why she's not running in The Everest. I'd donate one of my kidneys if she couldn't run top four. In my opinion, The Everest and the Cox Plate are Australia's two biggest and most popular races these days. If you're a top level sprinter, it's a bit gun-shy not to race for the huge cash against the other elite sprinters in the big race in Sydney. If I owned a horse with half the ability of Imperatriz and was offered an Everest slot, I'd take it before the slotholder could say ‘Evere .. ".
Imperatriz leaves Giga Kick in her wake in the McEwen Stakes.
MW: The Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes is on Saturday but Amelia's Jewel is the headline act at Flemington. She's drawn the widest gate in the Let's Elope but surely she smashes this lot of mares? I want to see her do it on the eastern seaboard before declaring her a superstar but the way Simon Miller talks about her she might be the next Phar Lap! Reading between the lines, I reckon they're warming to the Cox Plate as their grand final. Mr Brightside looks a good thing in the Makybe and should make it five in a row (a word of warning: he's only won one from six at Flemington). The racing at Randwick is outstanding. The new 7 Stakes and The Shorts are cracking contests.
BD: Mr Brightside is now just as popular as The Killers' song. Just like the lyrics, destiny is calling him. He's got a cool story, a cool name and is the sort of horse who puts bums on seats and gets extra eyeballs on racing. Having said that, I couldn't back him at the short odds. I'll be having something on my old mate Alligator Blood. The rise to 1600m is in his sweet spot and he'll have bridged the fitness gap after being beaten less than half a length by Mr Brightside last time. I can't spy much speed in the race so ‘Gator is likely to get his own way in front.
MW: Watching Romantic Warrior's trainer, Danny Shum, talk about the hurdles he has to clear before racing his star in Australia made my eyes water. From not having the right feed to all the CT scans, it's no wonder a lot of internationals have put the white flag up and said coming to Australia, especially Victoria, is just too hard.
James McDonald celebrates his QEII Cup win aboard Romantic Warrior at Sha Tin. Picture: HKJC
BD: It's crazy the way racing works. Victorian officials spent so many years rolling out luxurious red carpet to the internationals to the point where many Aussie trainers felt they were treated like second-class citizens. Now they're putting roadblock after roadblock in their way. No doubt officials had to act because no one wanted the spate of Cup fatalities we were seeing. But Shum is rightly dismayed that Romantic Warrior had to undergo three CT scans — surely that's overreach.
MW: I've always taken an interest in the all-in markets early in the week at carnival time but most of the odds put up these days are poison with ridiculously high percentages. As an example, Kovalica opened $4.50 for the Theo Marks last Monday and within a matter of minutes he was into $3.50. By jump time on Saturday, he was around $21 on Betfair. But it's not just that example, a majority of odds posted early in the week are gross unders. The smarties know which horses are true overs but those odds usually get snapped up so quickly.
Charm Stone wins at The Valley last week.
BD: Perhaps the only way to make money on futures and all-in markets is spotting some anonymous overseas horse running in some anonymous overseas race and getting inside mail they're coming for one of the Cups or another race. I like Charm Stone in the Golden Rose Saturday week but I'll probably do better on race day than the $8 available now. Here's a tip for free. Have something on Skirt The Law at Flemington. The Charm Stone form is elite.
MW: My boy Kovalica's run was better than it looked last week. He ran 32.75 for his last 600m, carrying 58kg, which was the equal third fastest of the race. He would've needed to break 32 seconds to be in the finish and first-up over 1300m he was never capable of that (nor would any horse). He'll be much better suited in the Epsom over 1600m at Randwick on September 30 when he'll carry 54kg. That's the race which will define his spring.
BD: Those potting him will end up wiping an egg off their faces. A giant goose egg! Kovalica has never won at less than 1600m and he was first-up after a 2400m Queensland Derby prep and he has much bigger fish to fry this spring. Stick with him and you'll be rewarded. And you'll get better odds now too …
