The Longshot: Stats nudge Ireland ahead but French are ones to beat on home soil
IRELAND to win a World Cup? Ireland to win a quarter-final at a World Cup? Ireland to limp out at in the pool stages? Which would be the most surprising?
Ultimate glory in anything is something we are not naturally attuned to on this island. Disappointment even in the face of modest ambitions is what we are used to. So talk of Andy Farrell’s men making it to a final in Paris in October is something that puts us on guard.
The tough thing to come to terms with despite legitimate expectations of doing well with a strong squad is that we are on the tough side of the draw. South Africa and Scotland in our group and France or New Zealand if we emerge from that. After that, Argentina maybe. And then a decider.
The sports stats company Opta reckon we have the best chance of any team of winning. The data provider used AI to simulate the World Cup 10m times to see what the most likely outcome would be and we apparently have a 21.7% chance of winning, 0.3% ahead of France, and one percent ahead of South Africa and France. So is there any real point in even playing, just give us the William Webb Ellis trophy.
Opta cannot factor in the unexpected. What if, against form, Johnny Sexton doesn’t get injured and isn’t forced to sit out the tournament after twisting his ankle/getting concussed against Tonga? What if one of the favourites gets a red card? What if Japan bring some of the attacking flair they showed at the 2019 event they hosted? Or if Argentina, who have a huge amount of their team playing week in, week out in the febrile atmosphere of Top 14 in France, make the most of the weaker side of the draw?
France and New Zealand face off in the opening game tonight and both are 3/1 to win the tournament outright, the hosts for a first time and the All Blacks for a record fourth. Ireland are 11/8 to top Pool B, with South Africa 10/11 favourites. The Springboks are 10/3 to lift the cup for a fourth time, while we are 5/1. These four are on a collision course in the quarters (if we ignore Scotland, hopefully not at our peril), so only two of the favourites will be making it into the semi-finals.
This might be considered being negative (or just be going on experience) but I think you’d have to be slightly insane to think we are going to win it. A run of three games of South Africa, Scotland and NZ/France, before we even negotiate a semi-final? It just looks too difficult, especially when you consider the inevitable injuries Farrell’s side will incur if they were to get that far. A semi-final would be a great achievement though. And if we do get that far of course I’ll be free to change my mind!
Momentum looks to be with South Africa who crushed New Zealand 35-7 at Twickenham in their final warm-up game, a result that followed on from their 52-16 drubbing of Wales. But an All Blacks side out for revenge or France could stop them in their tracks and their power game is pulverising, but without a plan B.
I think we can rule out Scotland, Wales, England and Australia. Getting out of the group would be a massive achievement for the Scots. One they are capable of but it would be hard to see them going further.
England are pitched in the weaker half of the draw but there is no guarantee they will get out of their group in their current form. Their first defeat to Fiji concluded their summer warm-up matches and was their fifth loss in the last six matches. Confidence appears to be at an all-time low while Owen Farrell and Billy Vunipola are suspended for their crucial opener against Argentina.
Their former boss Eddie Jones is now in charge of the Aussies and you’d have to imagine they will probably meet in the quarter-finals, if just for entertainment purposes.
So does that mean I am tipping France? It does. They should have won a World Cup by now (especially when they were robbed and I had them backed in 2011). They have muddled things up a bit by selecting Bastien Chalureau, who says he is not a racist, despite strong evidence to the contrary. However, with only one defeat in the last two Six Nations, and home help they will take some stopping if they topple the All Blacks in their opener tonight. They do have to cope without Romain Ntamack after the fly-half ruptured his ACL last month, but with the likes of Antoine Dupont and lethal finisher Damian Penaud to provide the flair and pace, they are a formidable force.
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WILL JORDAN and Penaud are the joint 8/1 favourites to be the top try-scorer at the World Cup. Jordan has scored 27 tries in 34 Tests for New Zealand, while Penaud is also a dangerous and prolific winger who has scored 22 tries in 31 Tests for France.
Wales’ Josh Adams was top try scorer in 2019 but he is 40/1 this time around. One behind him in Japan was Makazole Mapimpi, who scored six tries in South Africa’s victorious campaign. Ireland’s Kiwi James Lowe is fourth in the betting at 18/1, behind the All Blacks’ Mark Telea at 14/1. Mack Hansen, whose mam hails from East Cork, is 33/1. Possible high scores in the pool games means this is an open enough race.
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ANTOINE DUPONT is the standout favourite to be named the player of the tournament. The diminutive maestro, who was the world player of the year last season, is 7/1.
Current world player of the year Josh van der Flier is 20/1, alongside Johnny Sexton, with only centre Garry Ringrose ahead of them for the men in green at 18/1.
Ireland are 5/6 to be knocked out at the quarter-final stages once again and it is 6/5 that the All Blacks will be the ones to do that for a second successive tournament. We are 15/2 to bow out at the semis and 8/1 not to get out of the group.
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THE Green Bay Packers have seen their odds for the Super Bowl drift this year after they left legendary quarterback (and bit of a prat) Aaron Rodgers leave over the off-season and they are now 33/1 to win next February.
The New York Jets, who have been out of contention for many years, are rated as 16/1 after signing the veteran, who is considered one of the best passers in the history of the game. And Tom Brady has shown in recent years that players in their 40s (Rodgers hits that decade in December) can lead teams to ultimate glory.
Lots of Irish fans already shout for the Wisconsin-based Packers (main rivals to my own Chicago Bears, who they play on Sunday) and many more are likely to as their new starting punter is none other than a Wicklow man, Dan Whelan.
Green Bay unexpectedly released last season’s punter, veteran Pat O’Donnell (another good Irish name), leaving Whelan as the sole punter on their roster. Whelan moved to California as a 13-year-old from Enniskerry and quickly excelled at American football.
If he starts he will be the first player from this country to play NFL in nearly four decades, since Dublin-born Niall O’Donoghue lined out for the St Louis Cardinals in 1985.
The former League of Ireland player spent eight years in the league playing for the Buffalo Bills, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Cardinals. At 6’6”, he remains the tallest kicker in NFL history and although he did not have a stellar career, making it as far as he did is an extraordinary achievement. He ended up with a field goal success rate of 59.3% and he played alongside OJ Simpson with the Bills.
One of the more standout moments in his career was when he was called in to take part in a pre-season kicking competition with the Cardinals’ Steve Little, who remains one of the highest drafted kickers in the NFL.
Little had not delivered on his talent during his first season and in the kick-off at a training session O’Donoghue landed 14 out of 15 attempts at the posts to Little’s nine.
Showing no hard feelings, Little offered to take the Dubliner out for a few drinks in St Louis that night. O’Donoghue wanted to get up early to prepare for the first game of the season and decided not to go. The next morning he woke to the news that Little had wrapped his car around a pole after drinking and driving. He would live the rest of his short life as a paraplegic.
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EARLIER in the summer we tipped Auguste Rodin to win both the English and Irish Derby. When he won the former as 9/2 second favourite he just held off 66/1 shot King of Steel.
Since those Classic wins, Aidan O’Brien horse’s standing has taken a bit of a hit (he is 20/1 for the Prix de L’Arc) after finishing last pulling up in the King George at Ascot, which recalled his poor run in the 2000 Guineas in Newmarket in May.
So which horse is he?
King of Steel finished an impressive third in the Ascot headliner and is now rated as 9/4 favourite to win the Champion Stakes at Leopardstown tomorrow, ahead of Auguste Rodin at 7/2. To be fair tot he Derby winner, his two bad runs have come on bad ground and the good weather this weekend should ensure a fast race.
O’Brien has won the Irish Champion Stakes a record 11 times, but the Newmarket-based Roger Varian is seeking his first triumph in the contest with King Of Steel.
The Bet
FRANCE at 3/1 seems a bit short but if you want to name the finalists it is 40/1 that they will face Argentina. That would of course be a repeat of the football final in Doha last Christmas.
The South Americans are 28/1 to add the rugby title to that captured by Messi and co in the Middle East.
