The Probability That Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal And Chelsea Would All Advance To Finals? Less Than 1%

Chelsea and Arsenal will meet in the final of the Europa League in Baku, Azerbaijan, on May 29. The success of the two London clubs follows on from Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspurs amazing three-goal comebacks against Barcelona and Ajax in the Champions League.

It means that for the first time ever teams from one league will provide all four finalists for the finals of the Champions and Europa Leagues.

After the first leg of the respective semi-finals, the probability of all four Premier League teams making it to the final was less than 1%—0.9828% to be more precise.

FiveThirtyEight.com assessed Liverpool's chance at 7% chance; Spurs 25%; Chelsea 72%; Arsenal 78%.

Arsenal's odds would have been much shorter if not for a late goal a week ago at the Emirates Stadium by Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. It gave Arsenal a 3-1 lead going into the second leg in Valencia, but such as been Arsenal's form of late, no one in their right mind would have thought that over the two legs, Arsenal would win by four goals. 

The Mestalla is an intimidating stadium and the last thing that Arsenal wanted to do was to provide any encouragement to Valencia and its fans that another European fightback was on the cards. 

But, that was exactly what Arsenal did.

With Guedes finding more space than Captain Kirk on the left wing and the movement of Gameiro and Rodrigo in the attack,  Arsenal was rattled right from the kickoff.  It was no surprise when Gameiro gave Valencia the lead after just 10 minutes.

For season upon season, Arsenal has been vulnerable to good counter-attacking teams and it was a counter that allowed Gameiro to score.

However, rather than folding Arsenal struck back with a goal from Aubameyang. The genesis of the goal came from Arsenal going route one - a simple kick down the middle from goalkeeper Petr Cech caused the Valencia defense all sorts of grief. The ball eventually fell to Aubameyang on the edge of the penalty box and it was more a half chance rather than a big chance.  

Arsenal gained confidence and began to string some passes together. With the score on the night 1-1 and 4-2 in Arsenal's favor at half-time, things were looking good for the visitors. Things looked even better when Lacazette gave Arsenal a 2-1 and although Gameiro scored once again, Arsenal smoothly moved up a gear.

Aubameyang scored two more goals to complete his first Arsenal hat trick and Arsenal eased to a 4-2 win and 7-3 on aggregate. 

Aubameyang's hat trick was more than enough to make in man-of-the-match but even without the goals, his performance was outstanding. He harried, chased and never gave Valencia a moment's piece. His partner in attack Alexandre Lacazette was not far behind.

Chelsea had to work very hard before eliminating Eintracht Frankfurt on penalty kicks. Both legs finished 1-1 but Chelsea won the decider 4-3.

It was a hard no quarter asked none given type of game. Chelsea led at halftime 1-0 through a very tide finish by Ruben Loftus-Cheek. The midfielder accepted a pass from Eden Hazard after Hazard had attracted all the attention of the Frankfurt defense. The run and pass took at least five defenders out of the play - more Hazard magic.

Any thought that Eintracht would simply roll over in the second half was put to rest when Luka Jovic equalized. It was a brilliantly simple goal.

Jovic nipped ahead of Chelsea defender David Luiz and chested a pass to the very lively Gacinovic. Gacinovic played a pass behind Luiz who was guilty of ball watching and Jovic did the rest. 

The equalizer energized Frankfurt and Chelsea was pinned back for much of the second half. Chelsea found its second wind in extra time but although there countless close calls at both ends - including a disallowed goal from Chelsea's Azpilicueta - the game came down to a penalty kick decider. 

Eintracht had the advantage of shooting first and in front of its own fans. That advantage increased when Azpilicueta had his penalty saved by Frankfurt goalie Kevin Trapp. 

Eintracht lead 3-2 after round three but the most dramatic and fateful moment was still to come. Throughout the 120 minutes of play, Eintracht center-back Martin Hinteregger had been a colossus. The Austrian, on loan from Augsburg, launched himself at every loose ball - on the ground and in the air. He cleared crosses, blocked shots and intercepted passes. 

But as we all know, it is a cruel game. Hinteregger went for a power penalty, low and down the center of the goal. Chelsea keeper Kepa Arrizabalaga did not move and blocked the shot with his foot and then managed to squeeze his thighs together to stop the ball squirming into the goal. 

David Luiz then tied the penalty count at 3 and Paciência had his penalty saved by Arrizabalaga. Up stepped Eden Hazard to calmly roll the ball into the corner of the Eintracht net and send Chelsea to another Europa League Final. 

Heartbreaking/inspiring stuff depending on your leanings. Like Ajax, Eintracht Frankfurt has provided some wonderful entertainment and soccer through their European campaign - they will be missed but fondly remembered.    

What's next?

On Sunday, Chelsea is away to Leicester and a win will secure third place in the Premier League. Should Chelsea stumble, a win for Tottenham Hotspur at home to Everton will have Chelsea slipping to 4th.

The final day of the 2019 Premier League season has Arsenal away to Burnley. Arsenal is 5th and will almost certainly finish no higher. Manchester United is a point behind and although both teams will qualify for the Europa League next season, there is an incentive to finish 5th.

It's possible that whichever team finishes 6th will have a Europa League qualifying game July 25 rather than an automatic group spot for the 5th placed team. The group stage does not kick off until September 19.

Starting play July 25 impacts pre-season training schedules and it will also mean that a number of money-making friendly matches will have to be cut.

There is, of course, a chance that Arsenal will start in the Champions League come September. For that to happen Arsenal must beat Chelsea in the Europa League Final. Only the winner receives the bye into the 2020 Champions League although Chelsea has already qualified by finishing in the Premier League top four.

Both Chelsea and Arsenal, of a sort, take long undefeated runs into the Europa League Final. Chelsea is unbeaten in 17 games in the competition while the Arsenal manager, Unai Emery, has now gone 19 ties in the competition without being eliminated.

On to Baku, leave early and pack a few lunches!