The Texas Rangers Know Nothing Is Certain Until They Hoist the World Series Trophy
After a pair of wins on the road, the Texas Rangers now lead the World Series 3-1, putting them one more victory away from capturing their first championship in franchise history.
The history of teams leading 3-1 in the World Series should make the Rangers feel good about their chances of closing the deal. Throwing out the 1903 Fall Classic (which was best-of-9), 48 teams have led 3-1 in the World Series all-time, of which 42 (87.5%) ended up winning. Those odds are even higher in recent years: out of the 13 teams who led 3-1 since 1988, 12 won — the only exception being the 2016 Cleveland Indians in the year of the 3-1 comeback.
So it makes sense that the playoff odds give Texas an 89% chance to win the series from here. But the Rangers of all teams should know that nothing is assured until those odds hit 100%, because they’ve let a more likely championship than this one slip through their fingers. In 2011, they had a 98% chance of beating the St. Louis Cardinals for the title during Game 6, the third-highest peak championship probability ever by a team that went on to lose the World Series:
Leading by two runs in the bottom of the ninth inning, Texas had St. Louis third baseman David Freese down to his last strike before Freese hit a bases-clearing triple to tie the game. Then, after a two-run home run by Josh Hamilton in the top of the 10th, Cardinals right fielder Lance Berkman was once again down to the last strike of the season before singling home the tying run and setting up Freese to play hero again with a walk-off homer in the bottom of the 11th. The Rangers lost Game 7 in St. Louis, 6-2. It was the second year in a row that they lost the World Series, and they didn’t get back to the Fall Classic until this season.
Most likely, Texas will be your 2023 MLB champs. But their fans can be forgiven for still harboring doubts and remaining on edge. We’ve seen stranger things happen than the comeback Arizona must now pull off.
