The Time is Right for the Blackhawks to Extend Lukas Reichel

I’ve been watching teams with cap concerns dance around extensions for young players this summer and have been fascinated with the term and dollars. The Blackhawks are still in their building process, and don’t have cap problems. But they do have some players whose futures should be considered soon.

The biggest of which is Lukas Reichel.

Reichel, 21, will get his first full-season shot at the NHL this year. In his first extended look at the league last year, he showed signs that he’s got skill to perform well, scoring seven goals with eight assists in 23 games with Chicago.

According to Natural Stat Trick, Reichel produced 16 high-danger scoring chances last year in a few seconds over 304 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time. If we project that up to around 1,000 minutes at even strength (for context, Andreas Athanasiou skated 1,090 last year), he would be in the neighborhood of 50 iHDCF. Add to that the improved talent around Reichel this year, and 50 might be underselling what he could do.

Reichel is entering the final season of his entry-level contract that carries a $925,000 cap hit. We’ve seen an arbitrator hand Philipp Kurashev $2.25 million per for two years this summer, which is a nice pay day for a player who has scored 23 goals in 191 career regular-season games.

Kurashev is a nice player, but Reichel appears to be the first forward prospect making his way to the NHL who could be a part of the future in Chicago (with Connor Bedard, obviously). What we don’t have from Reichel is a lot of games at the NHL level to evaluate. But he’s performed well in Rockford and is ready to make the jump.

The Blackhawks won’t have cap concerns for a few years as they continue bringing the next waves of prospects up to the NHL, but that shouldn’t keep them from committing to Reichel beyond the coming season. The organization chose the two-year term for Kurashev in arbitration, so they were comfortable seeing him for a couple more years. And I consider Reichel’s profile to be more of a top-six threat than Kurashev (by a lot at this point).

Now that we’re inside the final league year of his contract, Reichel is eligible for an extension. And I’d like to see the Blackhawks get something done to keep him around for a while.

How About Some Comps?

There have been a lot of deals done this summer, and every contract comes with different circumstances and scenarios that should be considered. But there are four deals that I’ve highlighted when I think about what the Blackhawks might offer Reichel on a bridge deal.

Jack McBain is 23 and signed a two-year deal with the Coyotes that carries a $1,599,999 AAV. He scored 12 goals with 14 assists in 82 games in Arizona last season. He was originally a third-round pick by Minnesota in 2019.

Alex Newhook is 22 and signed a four-year deal with the Canadiens with a $2.9 million AAV. He scored 14 goals with 16 assists in 82 games with Colorado this past season; he was traded to Montreal for a first and second round pick in 2023 and Gianni Fairbrother this summer. He was the 16th overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft by the Avs.

Eetu Luostarinen is 25 and signed a three-year deal with the Panthers that carries a $3 million AAV. He scored 17 goals with 26 assists in 82 games last season in Florida. Luostarinen was originally a second-round pick by Carolina in 2017.

Gabe Vilardi is 24 and signed a two-year deal with the Jets with a $3,437,500 AAV. He scored 23 goals with 18 assists in 63 games for the Kings last season; he was traded to Winnipeg in the Pierre-Luc Dubois deal this summer. Vilardi was the 11th overall pick in the 2017 draft by LA.

We’ve got a couple guys who were drafted outside the first round and two guys who, like Reichel, were drafted in the teens. Two players were involved in summer blockbuster trades (though the Vilardi deal was a more significant move, the price Montreal paid to get Newhook was significant). Their productions vary a bit, as do their ages; they’re all at least two years older than Reichel.

And the length of the deals vary from two to four years.

How Much Should the Blackhawks Offer?

Most of the fantasy hockey projections I’ve seen for Reichel have him as roughly a 20-goal, 50-point player this season. So I pointed to these four players for a few reasons.

McBain has the lowest cap hit and produced the least, but his limited career resume is comparable to Reichel at this point. Newhook underwhelmed as the Avs hoped he would replace Nazem Kadri as their second-line center last year but is a good player. Luostarinen and Vilardi are a couple players who are starting to come into their own.

I would be open to the Blackhawks offering Reichel a bridge deal in the neighborhood of three years and $2.5 million. That’s more years and dollars than Kurashev got, but Reichel doesn’t have nearly as much experience in the NHL yet.

That also buys the Blackhawks some time to more thoroughly evaluate Reichel — and, more importantly, how his game fits with the prospects drafted by Kyle Davidson and others who are coming in the next few seasons. By the end of a three-year extension (four seasons from now), I would expect Bedard, Frank Nazar and Oliver Moore to all have NHL experience. And Bedard will be up for an extension in two years, remember.

I like Reichel’s game and appreciate that Davidson’s front office has very intentionally invested time in his development in Rockford. Giving him a few more years without the pressure of chasing a contract to continue his development with Luke Richardson and his staff at the NHL level would be a good decision.