The Verdict: Cox Plate

Racing.com's Ben Asgari explains why your horse can or can't win the xxx

GROUP 1 LADBROKES COX PLATE (2040m)

ROMANTIC WARRIOR ($3.70 - Ladbrokes odds correct at time of publishing)

Why he can win: If he can find his best form, he’s the best horse in the race. He bolted in to win the Hong Kong Cup second up last preparation.

Why he can’t win: Seemed underdone fitness wise in the Turnbull and only has three weeks to get back to his best.

ZAAKI ($23)

Why he can win: Might be ready to peak third up rising in distance and looks one of the two potential leaders in the race.

Why he can’t win: Form in recent preparations suggests he might be slightly below his best and below the level likely required to win this race.

MR BRIGHTSIDE ($7)

Why he can win: Seems to have come back a better horse this preparation and was a month between runs when beaten at $1.95 last start on a track that might’ve been too firm. Maps for a soft run behind the speed and should be much closer than in his previous two “failures” at 2000m.

Why he can’t win: Settled last and others were stronger late in this race 12 months ago off a moderate speed by Cox Plate standards. Seemed to have every chance last start.

ALLIGATOR BLOOD ($5.50)

Why he can win: Has won his last two starts at Group 1 level, the latest in a high-pressure 2000m contest suggesting he’s more than capable at the distance. Can lead or sit close to the speed.

Why he can’t win: Is two weeks between runs off a very tough run which has the potential to leave him flat and the fields he’s beaten at his last two starts were inferior to what he tackles here.

GOLD TRIP ($9)

Why he can win: Had no luck in this race 12 months ago and seems to be going even better this year as evidenced by his Turnbull Stakes win/Caulfield Cup third placing in what was a significantly stronger Caulfield Cup than 2022.

Why he can’t win: Had to go 17L faster the first 1800m in the Caulfield Cup this year which could take some of the sharpness out of his legs on the back up. He will probably settle towards the tail of the field from the barrier.

MY OBERON ($51)

Why he can win: Showed he can settle closer to the speed last start in the King Charles where he finished alongside Mr Brightside. Has won one of his two starts at the Valley.

Why he can’t win: The step up to 2040m is a query, especially in a race of this class.

Why he can win: Is 2/2 at the Valley and was five weeks between runs last start in the Toorak Handicap so might have further improvement to come from that run.

Why he can’t win: The barrier means he potentially has to go right back and he’d likely need to produce a clear new career-peak to be in the finish.

FANGIRL ($9)

Why she can win: Got firm ground to suit and raced straight past Mr Brightside last start in the King Charles. Her firm track record is outstanding and did win her only start beyond 1600m in the 2022 Vinery Stud Stakes (1850m).

Why she can’t win: Unproven at this level over the distance and probably settles towards the rear of the field.

DUAIS ($41)

Why she can win: She was strong late in the Might And Power from an impossible position given the race shape. She should get a soft run from the inside barrier and could be strong late if she gets all the breaks.

Why she can’t win: Has been a while since her two big wins in the autumn of 2022 and others have stronger form/she likely needs to produce a new career-peak.

VICTORIA ROAD ($8.50)

Why he can win: His trainer Aidan O’Brien has a terrific record in bringing the right horses to run well in the Cox Plate. Brings some potentially crucial “different form”.

Why he can’t win: His recent form suggests he might be a rung below some of the horses his trainer has run in this race previously.  

MILITARIZE ($8.50)

Why he can win: His Golden Rose win was stunning after only getting clear at the 150m mark and then he had no hope given the race shape in the Caulfield Guineas. Has drawn perfectly to potentially settle much closer to the speed.

Why he can’t win: If he’s slowly away he could be back and buried and there is a query whether the three-year-old form is strong enough.

KING COLORADO ($26)

Why he can win: He did beat home Militarize in the Caulfield Guineas and might relish the rise in distance.

Why he can’t win: He needs to go to a new level and I’m not sure he has the speed to roll forward from the barrier.

SELECTIONS

SUGGESTED BET: Romantic Warrior & Militarize to win

Odds correct at time of publishing, subject to change. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.