The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 3

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 3

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

This is the Vikings probability meter after the Week 2 loss at the Philadelphia Eagles.

The most unkind of them all, FTNFantasy.com actually predicts Green Bay to take the NFC North, a change of pace from the pro-Detroit sentiment over the last several months. As of late, DVOA stats (now housed at FTN Fantasy) have loathed the Vikings but now flipped the script in 2023, ranking Minnesota as the league’s 16th-best team through two weeks.

Last year, Minnesota had a 13-4 record but ranked 27th leaguewide per DVOA.

The Bears are nearing practical elimination, per DVOA, an early indictment after a summer stuffed to the gills with momentum for Chicago fans.

Sportsbooks = 27.8%

Most credible sportsbooks settled around a +115 moneyline for Minnesota to visit the postseason when the regular season kicked off, which translated to 46.5%. That percentage and moneyline stayed stagnant for most of the offseason, as oddsmakers decided Minnesota was an 8.5-win team after it lost Eric Kendricks, Adam Thielen, Za’Darius Smith, Dalvin Cook, Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, and others — and that was that.

But after the Week 2 loss, the moneyline changed to +260 or 27.8%. That’s what happens when a team loses two games to begin the season. The win-total over-under also fell to 7.5 wins.

The Vikings can right the ship against the Chargers, and a win would rejuvenate Vikings fans to the utmost. Oddsmakers have an even line for Week 3 between Minnesota and Los Angeles, a true “pick ’em” affair.

PlayoffStatus.com = 24%

This site takes a more rudimentary approach to the calculation, not necessarily factoring in predictive performance. But in the interest of fairness and sheer math, PlayoffStatus.com was included for a broader view.

The Vikings play the Chargers on Sunday afternoon at U.S. Bank Stadium. Minnesota has defeated Los Angeles (and San Diego) thrice consecutively.

typically reveals playoff odds and other NFL metrics by now, but nothing is available as of September 20th. Perhaps it will publish something after Week 3.

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.