Three takeaways from Mage’s victory in the 2023 Kentucky Derby

Mage, a lightly raced 15-1 shot, won the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, taking advantage of a fast early pace to charge from near the back of the pack and pass Two Phil’s down the stretch.

Here are three takeaways from a race day that saw Mage’s triumph balanced by the tragedy of two more fatal injuries and a morning line favorite scratched because of injury.

He was no 80-1 shocker like last year’s winner, Rich Strike. In his previous start in the Florida Derby, he’d finished just a length behind Forte, the Derby favorite before he was scratched Saturday morning. But Mage was not in the first sentence of many conversations handicapping the first jewel of the Triple Crown. He had run just three times and won just once, in his maiden race at Florida’s Gulfstream Park in January.

“There just wasn’t much to say about Mage,” NBC’s Mike Tirico said when it was over, summing up the lack of prerace intrigue around the Gustavo Delgado-trained colt.

Without the electricity of an unfathomable upset or the coronation of a mighty favorite, fans and analysts were left to celebrate Mage’s 45-year-old jockey, Javier Castellano, who won four straight Eclipse Awards as the top rider in the sport between 2013 and 2016 but had never won a Derby.

Castellano rode a perfectly patient race, refusing to panic when Mage broke slowly and the pace ahead of him ran hot. He kept his horse safely in the middle of the track, waiting for the perfect moment to swing him outside and fire past the tiring leaders. It was a consummate performance from one of the sport’s great gentlemen.

“You will not find a nicer guy in horse racing than Javier Castellano,” NBC analyst Randy Moss said.

It was also a career-defining triumph for Delgado (a native of Venezuela like Castellano). Though he had trained Grade 1 winners, he had never been competitive in a race like this. His previous top earner, Bodexpress, finished 13th in the 2019 Derby.

So it was another Derby for the guys we never saw coming. Favorites dominated the race in the 2010s, but those days are gone.

There was no chapter two in Rich Strike’s Triple Crown story because trainer Eric Reed opted not to bring the upset king to Baltimore last May, instead holding off for the Belmont Stakes, where he finished sixth.

Delgado’s son and assistant trainer, Gustavo Delgado Jr., offered no assurances of a May 20 Preakness run in the immediate aftermath of the Derby. “Give me a couple days at least,” he said.

But Sunday morning, trainer Gustavo Delgado Sr. and co-owner Ramiro Restrepo said the Preakness is a strong consideration.

“If my guy is feeling the way he’s feeling, then on to Baltimore and crab cakes we go,” Restrepo said, nodding toward Mage’s stall as he spoke with reporters at Churchill Downs.

If he does not make the trip, we’re in for another hot debate over the Triple Crown calendar, whether it’s too tightly packed to suit modern thoroughbreds that rarely run on less than a month’s rest.

If Mage does come to Baltimore, however, the Preakness could be quite interesting, with Derby runner-up Two Phil’s and third-place finisher Angel of Empire potentially lining up for another shot and trainer Chad Brown again waiting in the weeds with a talented horse, Blazing Sevens, that did not run in the Derby. Brown used the same formula to win the Preakness last year with Early Voting and in 2017 with Cloud Computing (ridden by Castellano).

And what about Forte? If the bruise on his foot heals quickly, might trainer Todd Pletcher chase his first Preakness win with the scratched Derby favorite? Pletcher did not rule out the possibility.

We have not seen a horse win even two of the three Triple Crown races since Justify took all three jewels in 2018. The next two weeks will be far more exciting if Mage gives it a whirl against top competition.

Fatalists sensed the bad news coming as soon as turf writers spotted Mike Repole, Forte’s owner, locked in conversation with Kentucky racing officials after the Derby favorite galloped on race morning. Sure enough, the headline flashed across social media a few moments later: Forte was out, scratched by state veterinarians, who were concerned about a bruise on his right front foot.

The morning line favorite became the fifth horse scratched from the Derby field between Thursday and Saturday morning, and though his late exit was not unprecedented — 3-1 favorite I Want Revenge scratched the morning of the race in 2009 — it was a fitting note in a relentlessly gloomy run-up.

The news would get worse as the day carried on, with two horses, Chloe’s Dream and Freezing Point, suffering fatal injuries in races on the Derby undercard. Their breakdowns brought the equine death total to seven over a nine-day span at Churchill Downs.

The Derby is the horse racing equivalent of opening day, a spring festival for which all the sport’s top owners and trainers put their best feet forward, thinking this might be their year. More even than the outlandish hats worn by patrons, optimism defines it.

Not in 2023.

Before the scratches and Saturday’s latest fatalities, track officials scrambled to figure out why five horses, including Derby qualifier Wild on Ice, died over a five-day span. They suspended Saffie Joseph Jr., who trained two horses that died suddenly, and scratched his Derby contender, Lord Miles.

All this at a time when casual fans seem more inclined than ever to wonder if horse deaths are an acceptable sacrifice for racing to roll forward.

All these headlines of death, illness and injury continued an unsettled stretch for the most celebrated of all American races. We have not seen a “normal” Derby since Justify began his Triple Crown run by winning in 2018. In 2019, Maximum Security crossed the finish line first but was disqualified by stewards because he swerved into the paths of several rivals. In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic pushed the Derby to Labor Day weekend, after the Belmont Stakes. In 2021, Medina Spirit lost his victory because of a medication violation that also led to the suspension of the sport’s most famous trainer, Bob Baffert. In 2022, Rich Strike, not even in the field until another horse scratched Friday morning, won as an 80-1 underdog.

Mage does not deserve any less credit for his win because Forte and other viable contenders such as Practical Move and Skinner were absent. Bad luck is a constant in this game. Even the greatest trainers know their best-laid plans can unravel with one bad step.

But death and disappointment were as much stories as the pursuit of victory at the end of this difficult week in Kentucky.

148th Preakness Stakes

Pimlico Race Course

Saturday, May 20

Post time: Approximately 6:50 p.m.