Thunder vs. Lakers prediction ATS, odds, best bets for player props on Monday, March 4

The first full week in March begins with an unfamiliar face atop the Western Conference. Despite being loaded with contenders, the West’s current No. 1 seed is owned by a team that fields the NBA’s second-youngest roster, the Oklahoma City Thunder.

After a wild roller coaster ride in Phoenix that saw OKC blow a 24-point third-quarter lead and fall behind by as many as six points in the fourth quarter, the Thunder composed themselves and posted a 118-110 road victory. Combined with Minnesota’s 89-88 home loss to the Clippers, Oklahoma City closed Sunday atop the entire Western Conference, trailing only the Boston Celtics for the NBA’s best record.

LeBron James became the first player in league history to top 40,000 points on Saturday night, but couldn’t lift the Lakers (33-29 SU, 23-39 ATS)  past the defending champion Nuggets. James finished with a team-high 26 points and nine assists in a 124-114 loss, and now his Lakers get another look at a potential playoff opponent ranked among the West’s best that they could run into provided they get out of the play-in round.

Handicapping Thunder vs. Lakers betting odds, props, and predictions hinges on weighing whether L.A.’s desperation can overcome OKC’s young legs and amazing form.

Top-rated sportsbooks are basically calling this a pick’em even though the Thunder would be the West’s top seed and the Lakers are No. 10 if the playoffs began today. LA hasn’t lost consecutive games since Jan. 29-30 and is 9-4 since Feb. 1. The Thunder are 9-3 in that same time span and improved to 7-1 over their last eight on Sunday night.

Thunder vs. Lakers odds: Point spread, moneyline, total

Here are the latest NBA betting odds for Oklahoma City vs. Los Angeles:

The Lakers have the West’s fifth-best home record at 21-10, while OKC’s 18-12 road mark is tied for fifth-best in the entire NBA. This is the fourth and final meeting between the teams, and L.A. is looking to move to 10-4 against the Thunder since 2021 while winning this season’s series 3-1. 

Oklahoma City Thunder betting news and analysis

MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way in the win against Phoenix with 35 points, eight rebounds and nine assists, shooting 15-for-27 from the field. NBA Most Improved Player candidate Jalen Williams added 22 points and all five Thunder starters scored in double-figures.

The top of Oklahoma City’s rotation averages 23.5 years of age, which is the youngest in the league over San Antonio (23.6), Orlando (24.3) and Detroit (24.3). Gilgeous-Alexander stepping up as the unquestioned leader of the group is one reason he’ll receive serious MVP consideration alongside Denver’s Nikola Jokic. 

In all, the Thunder are dominating in a manner that is anything but smoke and mirrors. They’re not sneaking up on anyone. Teams know exactly what they’re facing when OKC comes through town and no one is skimming through their scouting reports. They know what’s coming but simply can’t stop it. 

Gilgeous-Alexander is an elite closer, but Williams, a second-year wing from Santa Clara, is shooting 69% in the clutch this season, the best clip in the NBA. OKC is an elite jump-shooting team and has thrived despite guards Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort struggling offensively at different points over the past few months. 

The Thunder lead the league in 3-point percentage (.396) and effective field goal percentage (.567) while adding a key ingredient that was sorely missed last season thanks to rookie Chet Holmgren providing much-needed rim protection. 

Showing no signs of slowing down, Oklahoma City actually has some room for improvement since both Dort and Giddey can settle into a better offensive flow and Gordon Hayward is likely to get better acclimated to his new surroundings over the next few weeks. After they close out this four-game trip mid-week against the Blazers, the Thunder open a four-game homestand featuring games against the Heat, Grizzlies, Pacers and Mavs in which they’ll be favored.

Los Angeles Lakers betting news and analysis

The Lakers are in the midst of a stretch that will see them play every one of their games in California from Feb. 28 through March 24. Dating back to LA’s return from the All-Star break, its longest road trip until visiting Milwaukee on March 26 will have been to Phoenix on Feb. 25. That’s an incredible run playing 14 of 15 in-state that must be taken advantage of. James even admitted it’s a crucial stretch that must be capitalized on if his team is to avoid the play-in. 

After losing in Oklahoma City 133-110 on Nov. 30 without Rui Hachimura and Cam Reddish, the Lakers have had the Thunder’s number in the past two meetings. James scored 40 points in a 129-120 win at Paycom Center on Dec. 23 and added 25 points, seven boards and six assists in the 112-105 conquest on Jan. 25, while Anthony Davis led the way with 27 points and 15 rebounds.

Forwards Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood have made key contributions in both victories but won’t be available here due to injuries. Jonas Hayes has been seeing backup minutes behind Davis in Wood’s place, while Hachimura, Reddish and Taurean Prince are getting extended playing time without Vando available.

The Lakers were in Sunday night’s game against the Nuggets until losing the fourth quarter 35-25 in a 10-point loss. They won the fourth quarter 39-16 this past Wednesday, rallying from a huge deficit in a 116-112 victory over the Clippers, and survived the Wizards in overtime the next night, so LA’s finishing kick isn’t a concern.

Darvin Ham will need his group to play all 48 minutes to run with the young Thunder as they look to get off to a strong start in a taxing week in which the Kings, Bucks and Timberwolves all come through town.

Thunder vs. Lakers player props picks

BetMGM has set Gilgeous-Alexander’s points prop for this contest at , and some other books opened this number at 30.5. SGA has scored 30 or more points in 18 of his last 21 games, including six straight. He’s averaging 31.2 points per game, second only to Dallas’ Luka Doncic, and continues to take over games when it matters most.

The Lakers don’t have a defensive stopper who can stay in front of or keep him from getting into a rhythm or getting to the free-throw line, so backing the OVER on his scoring total is the only way to go. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 30.3 points on 55 percent shooting and has made eight free throws per game through the first three meetings against the Lakers.

Although James continues to smack around Father Time, the key to LA being in position to take down the Thunder lies in the production of Davis and guard Austin Reaves, who wrapped up his college career at Oklahoma. Davis doesn’t necessarily have to score, but must own the paint and push around the skinnier Holmgren. I see him topping rebounds and think the Lakers will play through him, so backing the OVER on assists is my favorite prop from this game.

Reaves averaged 17.3 points in February, scored 19 against Denver on Saturday and has reached double-figures in 13 of 14 games. Take a look at backing the OVER on his scoring () and 3-pointers made () props, since he’s made multiple shots from beyond the arc in eight of his last 10.

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Thunder vs. Lakers prediction ATS

The Lakers simply couldn’t survive Jokic getting great support from Murray and X-factor Michael Porter, Jr., who shot 10-for-10 to make the difference for the Nuggets two nights ago. However, LA didn’t play poorly, continues to thrive offensively with James consistently making the right plays and has a heightened sense of urgency aiding the cause.

Although tired legs aren’t a factor for the young Thunder, the fact they couldn’t hold a massive lead in Phoenix on Sunday and had to go all out to secure the win may ultimately hurt them down the stretch in this one.