Thunder vs. Timberwolves odds, prediction: NBA play-in tournament picks for Friday
It took three years for a No. 10 seed to win an NBA play-in tournament game.
Amount of time it took for a second No. 10 seed to prevail in a win-or-go-home contest? Less than three hours.
After the Chicago Bulls overcame a 17-point third-quarter deficit to beat the Toronto Raptors in Wednesday’s first No. 9 vs. No. 10 clash, the Oklahoma City Thunder took the court in New Orleans and proceeded to shock the favored Pelicans.
Oklahoma City’s 123-118 victory set up Friday’s final NBA play-in elimination game in Minneapolis against the Timberwolves.
Minnesota will be looking to take advantage of a second opportunity to move into the Western Conference playoff bracket after squandering a 15-point second-half lead in Tuesday’s overtime play-in game loss to the Lakers in Los Angeles.
With home-court advantage, an extra day of rest and their best rebounder back in the fold following a one-game suspension, the Timberwolves are the betting favorites to survive and advance.
They’re our favorites, too, as we’re laying the chalk in this one.
Odds updated as of 5:30 p.m. ET on April 13.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Prediction
Timberwolves -5.5 (at BetMGM)
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Prediction: Analysis
We erroneously went against both these teams in their initial play-in contests, thinking neither had enough manpower to get past two (seemingly) superior opponents that were deeper and healthier.
Both obviously were bad calls, but the decision to recommend a first-half wager on the Lakers over Minnesota was particularly off the mark. Because the TWolves not only covered the first-half line, they took a 60-49 lead into the break.
That lead grew to 78-63 with about five minutes to go in the third quarter — a remarkable achievement considering that Minnesota was playing shorthanded.
Not only was 7-foot-1 center and leading rebounder Rudy Gobert back in Minneapolis serving a one-game, team-imposed suspension for punching a teammate, but the team’s best defensive stopper, Jaden McDaniels, was in street clothes after punching a wall and breaking his hand in the regular season finale.
But just as it looked like the Timberwolves were going to pull off a huge upset, they somehow forgot how to put the ball in the basket.
Minnesota scored just 20 points in the final 16 1/2 minutes of regulation, then tallied just four points in overtime as L.A. prevailed 108-102.
It was a gut-punch of a defeat — the kind with after-effects that can often linger and lead to a downward spiraling.
However, in this case, the Timberwolves should be uplifted by what transpired in Los Angeles.
Think about it:
They didn’t have Gobert, the team’s best rim protector who averages 13.4 points and a team-high 11.6 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game.
They didn’t have McDaniels, who averages 12.1 points but more importantly is assigned to lock up the opponents’ best defender.
And leading scorer Anthony Edwards was a complete abomination against the Lakers. He missed 14 of 17 shots — including all nine from 3-point range — and finished with just nine points.
Despite all those negatives, the Timberwolves took LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Lakers to the limit (and beyond).
Yes, they should be peeved that they didn’t put away L.A. and lock up a playoff spot. But they also should be encouraged knowing that A) Gobert will be back on the court Friday, and B) there’s no way Edwards plays as poorly as he did Tuesday.
On the downside, McDaniels remains out indefinitely with his broken hand. That’s significant, because the small forward would’ve been a key part of Minnesota’s defensive game plan against Thunder point guard/budding superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Gilgeous-Alexander basically matched his 31.4 points-per-game scoring average against New Orleans, pouring in a game-high 31 points.
The fifth-year pro played in three of four games against the Timberwolves during the regular season, and his points output increased in each — from 31 to 33 to 35.
However, Minnesota won three of the four contests, including two of the three in which Gilgeous-Alexander played. Also important to note: The TWolves didn’t have All-Star forward Karl-Anthony Towns for the last two meetings against OKC in December and went 1-1.
In the two games Towns played against the Thunder — scheduled four days apart in October — Minnesota won 115-108 at home (overcoming SGA’s 32 points) and 116-106 on the road (SGA didn’t play).
Towns stepped up big in Gobert’s absence against the Lakers, going 8-for-12 with 24 points and 11 rebounds while also holding down the fort defensively. And he did that while navigating foul trouble.
With Gobert back on the court Friday, Towns won’t have to expel as much energy playing defense. So, in theory, he should be even more productive offensively.
Couple that with a strong bounce-back effort from Edwards, plus Gobert’s points and rebounds contributions that were missing in Los Angeles, and the TWolves should take care of business by a decisive margin and snag the Western Conference’s No. 8 seed.
Point spread: Thunder (+5.5) @ Timberwolves (-5.5)
Moneyline: Thunder (+180) @ Timberwolves (-225)
Total: 227.5 points
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