Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Picks, Odds

Cleveland has had trouble plating runs all season, and we expect Terry Francona's group to continue to struggle when they match up against left-hander Tarik Skubal on Thursday. Read more in our Tigers vs. Guardians betting picks.

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The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians begin a four-game series at Progressive Field on Thursday night. The Guardians still maintain a decent chance of catching up to the first-place Twins in the AL Central, while the Tigers are just 3.5 games behind Cleveland.

MLB odds opened with the Tigers as slim -115 road favorites but early money has come in on them, shifting that number to -135. Here are my best free MLB picks and predictions for Tigers vs. Guardians on August 17.

Tigers vs Guardians odds

Tigers vs Guardians predictions

The Detroit Tigers are sending southpaw Tarik Skubal to the hill today. Skubal had a breakout season with Detroit last year, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with 2.96 FIP and a 1.16 WHIP across 21 starts. 

The 26-year-old began this year on the IL with an elbow injury but he has made seven starts since coming back to the rotation at the start of July. He has been a roller-coaster in those appearances, not allowing a single run in four starts at home while surrendering 15 earned runs across 14 innings in three starts on the road. 

That said, there's plenty of reason to think that Skubal will put together a strong performance today. Although his ERA sits at a mediocre 4.17 in a relatively small sample size, his expected ERA (2.70) and FIP (2.09) suggest positive regression.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians have been awful at the dish and are averaging a pathetic 3.59 runs per game at home. They are also 26th in the majors in OPS (.693), with that number dropping to just .650 against lefties.

Skubal was also very sharp when he went to Progressive Field to face an almost identical Cleveland lineup last year, throwing five innings of shutout ball. Expect him to shut down this weak-hitting squad once again and bet the Under 2.5 earned runs.

My best bet: Tarik Skubal Under 2.5 earned runs (-140)

Tigers vs Guardians same-game parlay

Skubal u2.5 earned runs (-140)

Skubal u1.5 walks (-200)

Greene o1.5 hits (+215)

Skubal also limits walks and has allowed more than one walk in just two of seven starts. The Guardians also rank just 25th in the majors in walk rate despite rarely striking out. 

The Tigers' lineup hasn't been much better than Cleveland's, but one guy that has been mashing is Riley Greene. The young outfielder was ranked as the top prospect in baseball last summer and he has been playing up to those expectations.

Greene struggled during the first month of the year but has been terrific since, slashing .346/.404/.571 since the start of May. The left-handed slugger has picked up at least a pair of hits in four of his last six games and will have the platoon advantage against Guardians starter Xzavion Curry. 

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Tigers vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis

This line opened at close to a pick'em but money has come in on Detroit, making them -135 road faves as of 11:00 a.m. ET. The total opened at 8.5 and has stayed steady. 

The Tigers are coming off a win as +161 underdogs against the Twins last night. They are now 5-3 in their last eight games but still have a 54-66 record. That said, their 28-33 record on the road means that they've profited 7.82 units in away games this year. 

Meanwhile, blind betting Cleveland at home would have resulted in a loss of -10.32 units. The Guardians have a 58-63 record and have lost 10 of their last 15 contests. 

The Tigers have gone 4-2 in six meetings against the Guardians this year, with three of those victories coming as underdogs.

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Trend to know

The Cleveland Guardians have hit the First Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games at home (+5.78 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians

Tigers vs Guardians game info

Starting pitchers

Tarik Skubal (2-2, 4.18 ERA): Skubal needs to be more consistent in the final month and a half of the year, but he definitely has the stuff to do so. The lefty has a four-seamer that averages 96 mph and also relies heavily on a terrific slider that generates plenty of groundballs. 

Xzavion Curry (3-1, 3.39 ERA): With the Guardians' rotation hobbled by injuries, the 25-year-old has made five starts in his last seven appearances. In 19 innings as a starter this year, Curry has pitched to a 4.26 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP. In his previous outing, the right-hander surrendered six hits and five runs in five innings against the Rays.