Timberwolves vs Pacers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Covers

07 March 2024

Timberwolves vs Pacers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

While Karl-Anthony Towns' injury isn't welcome news for the Timberwolves, they've had time to process his upcoming absence, and our NBA picks see them ready to attack the Pacers tonight — especially Rudy Gobert.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are already having a bad day. The morning news of Karl-Anthony Towns’ meniscus injury makes tonight’s NBA odds against the Indiana Pacers feel like an afterthought for the Timberwolves organization.

This will be a test of the Minnesota coaching staff, to keep the team focused on a needed win despite losing one of the franchise’s cornerstones for the indefinite future. Even if the Timberwolves knew this bad news was coming before the rest of the world did, it will still be a distraction.

And when Minnesota is distracted, there is one specific piece of its offense to focus on, a player prop that leads our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview Timberwolves vs. Pacers on March 7.

Timberwolves vs Pacers odds

Timberwolves vs Pacers predictions

Logically, the Minnesota locker room knew the Towns news long before Shams and Woj got a text from his agent. The Timberwolves have had some time to ponder their short-term future without the best-shooting big man of all time. And they already knew they would be without him tonight in Indiana.

So, first off, do not overreact to the Towns injury when it comes to considering this exact matchup. It should not impact any line or prop. His Thursday absence was already accounted for. Any number this changes is a market overreaction.

The market had already bumped up Rudy Gobert’s points prop to 16.5 at most books, though at least one clings to 15.5. That move up was not only a reaction to Towns’s injury. Gobert has been playing well on both ends for months now.

Since Jan. 9, Gobert has scored 16 or more points in 14 of 25 games. Until recently — honestly, tonight is the first time yours truly has spotted this change, but it is absolutely possible it popped up over the weekend — Gobert’s nightly points prop was set at 14.5, and it was often the best bet to be made on a Timberwolves game.

It still is, particularly tonight.

No one in the NBA gives up more field goal attempts within five feet of the rim than the Pacers, their 34.7 per game drastically ahead of the rest of the league. The gap between Indiana and the Charlotte Hornets at No. 5 in this worrying defensive category is greater than the gap between the Hornets and No. 16.

Narrow your focus to recently, and the Pacers are giving up even more shots at the rim, 35.9 per game, the gap from there to No. 2 greater than the gap between No. 2 and No. 6. Indiana’s paint defense is easily argued to be the worst in the NBA.

To make matters worse, that uptick across the last month in field goal attempts within five feet of the rim has also featured an uptick in field goal percentage on those attempts. Before Feb. 1, opponents shot 62.9% at the rim against the Pacers, No. 20 in the NBA. It wasn't ideal to give up so many close looks, but at least Indiana had some semblance of deterrence once there.

Since Feb. 1, that has jumped to a 65.4 field goal percentage on shots within five feet of the rim, the seventh-highest in the NBA.

Gobert has scored more this season than broadly recognized. With the disheartening Towns news today, Minnesota should focus on its most consistent offense to stabilize. And against the Pacers, finding the French veteran in the paint should reap more rewards than usual.

My best bet: Rudy Gobert Over 15.5 points (-122 at FanDuel)

Timberwolves vs Pacers same-game parlay

Rudy Gobert Over 15.5 points

Mike Conley Over 5.5 assists

Under 228

If betting on Gobert points, the correlated play that makes too much sense to ignore is an Over on Mike Conley’s assists prop. Towns is actually underappreciated in how often he finds Gobert at the hoop, but Conley connects with his former Jazz teammate more than anyone else on the Minnesota roster.

It has not been a coincidence that Conley has handed out six or more assists in 13 of 22 games in the same stretch that Gobert has been racking up points.

Betting this full-game Under adds some value to the same-game parlay; combining prop Overs with a full-game Under will almost always boost a payout more than you’d expect, simply given the conflicting natures of those plays.

No one on Minnesota’s roster is as loose with the ball as Towns. Edwards averages a touch more turnovers — 3.2 to 2.8 — but that fits his ball-handling usage. Towns regularly loses the ball on a drive, creating transition opportunities that the Pacers would feast on. Diminish those and suddenly a few easy buckets may disappear tonight, enough to inspire this Under.

Best NBA bonuses for Timberwolves vs Pacers

Timberwolves and Celtics both win
+282 BOOSTED to +320!Claim Now

Edwards/Doncic 30+ points each
+135 BOOSTED to +200! Claim Now

Timberwolves vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis

Minnesota opened as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday afternoon, but that jumped across the fence to favoring Indiana by the end of the night, a reflection of the Towns news being known before it was public. He was listed as out before the news was even released.

By the end of Wednesday night, the Pacers were as much as 2-point favorites, where the line mostly remained on Thursday morning. Indiana is 3-3 against the spread this season as a one-bucket favorite.

The total hit the market at 230.5 and rose to 231 before the Towns impact began knocking it down, as low as 227.5 early Thursday.

Timberwolves vs Pacers betting trend to know

Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five games, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 6.8 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Pacers.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.