Tips and strategies for the 2024 bracket

talkSPORT

07 March 2024

Tips and strategies for the 2024 bracket

The NCAA Tournament is one of the most highly-anticipated sporting events of the year and among the biggest betting days in the sports calendar.

As the 68 top programs in college basketball square off with a jam-packed schedule of games, upsets are prevalent, and thrilling finishes become the norm.

As each team squares off the crown the champion of college basketball, there is plenty to know in preparation for the massive sporting event.

Best promos for the 2024 NCAA finals

How NCAA tournament betting works

While there are no differences in the rules or overall gameplay for the NCAA Tournament games, the high stakes produce a different intensity for each game.

With so many matchups taking place in such a short period of time, it also creates some surprising results.

The combination of quantity of games and increased intensity produces some unexpected scores in front of one of the greatest atmospheres in all of sports.

The tournament begins with the First Four matchups which include a few teams on the border of officially qualifying. The NCAA selection committee officially decides all seeding and matchups on Selection Sunday.

Don’t officially write off the First Four selections as every team in the tournament has a chance.

Just last year, 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson University knocked off a Number 1 seed for just the second time in NCAA Tournament history. In 2022, 15-seeded St. Peters advanced all the way to the Elite 8 despite being massive underdogs in the opening round.

You can wager on each game in the same way any college basketball game can be bet on.

This includes the over/under totals, spread, and moneyline bets, as well as some unique wagers that are only available during the tournament.

There also are plenty of futures available such as how far each individual team will make it or which region of the bracket will cut down the nets.

Betting on the NCAA finals

There are seemingly endless and ever-growing options for what type of wagers you can place.

The point spread, over/under, and moneyline are the most common ways to place a wager, but there are plenty of prop bets and other options as well.

Point spread

Set with the goal of leveling the playing field in a matchup, the point spread quantifies the estimated gap between the two teams matching up. This typically results in even odds on each side of the spread. For favorites, they must win by more than the set number of points and for underdogs, they must either win outright or lose by fewer than the set number.

For example, if Duke is set to face off with Kentucky as +4.5 underdogs- they must win outright or lose by 4 or fewer points in order to cover the spread. In this same example, Kentucky would be -4.5 favorites and must win by 5 points or more in order to cover the spread.

Expect some large spread in the early matchups of the NCAA Tournament and for these numbers to shrink as the rounds progress.

Over/Under

The over/under is the projected total of combined points scored over the course of a game. Bettors can wager on whether the final score will go over or under this set total.

If in this same example the over/under for Duke vs Kentucky was set at 145.5, the two teams would have to score 146 or more combined points for the over to cash. If 145 points or fewer are scored the under will cash.

Oftentimes this can be a very volatile market as contrasting styles, quick turnarounds, and shooting variance all play a massive role in the two teams’ level of production.

Moneyline

The most straightforward method of betting, moneyline, is purely dependent on which team wins the game.

Each team is assigned a moneyline value based on their implied probability of winning the game. Favorites oftentimes have a high price tag, however, it can be extremely lucrative to bet an underdog on the moneyline.

To continue with the Duke vs Kentucky example, Kentucky would likely be around -180 favorites considering they hold a -4.5 advantage on the spread. In this situation, you would need to risk $18 for every $10 you want to win.

So if you bet $18 on Kentucky’s moneyline and it cashes, you would win $28. On the other side, Duke would likely be roughly +160 underdogs on the moneyline.

In this situation, you would win $16 for every $10 risked so if you wager $10 on the matchup and Duke gets the win your ticket would cash for $26.

As is part of the tournament’s charm, there are sure to be some significant upsets during the tournament which leaves the opportunity for some significant payouts.

To read more about betting on basketball and more about the sportsbooks for basketball betting in the US, check out the comprehensive basketball betting overview.

Popular NCAA tournament prop bets

The availability of prop bets varies depending on the sports betting platform you are using. However, there are some fairly standard prop bets that can spice up your tickets and give you a different angle to wager on a game. Here are five of the more popular ways to maximize your potential earnings.

Futures

Rather than wagering on one specific game, placing a future involves a team reaching a certain point in the tournament or winning it all.

The most common futures bet is to win the National Championships or make the Final Four by winning their region of the bracket. These odds are constantly adjusting in response to outcomes, injuries, and level of play but provide the opportunity for a massive payout if the ticket cashes.

First to 15

Coming in the form of a fast-paced high-adrenaline bet, wagering on the first to 15 points is settled within the first few minutes of the game. Bookmakers set odds for both sides and the point values are typically offered in the first to 20, 30, 40, and more as well.

Tournament MVP

In addition to betting on team success, you can bet on players in different formats as well. While the number of props is more limited for players at the collegiate level, tournament MVP is one of the most common options.

This is wagering on which player will be crowned tournament MVP which is also known as the Final Four Most Outstanding Player. While there is no doubt that team success is connected to the wager, you oftentimes can find some additional value by selecting the best player on the team you expect to cut down the nets.

Derivatives

Derivative odds allow you to bet on segments of individual games rather than just the full results.

The layout and content of the bets (point spread, over/under, moneyline) remain the same, but it segments so that it is only based on portions of the game. An example of this would be to wager on a team’s first-half team total if you believe they will get off to a hot start.

Prop bets

Proposition bets, or prop bets, are alternative wagers set outside of the standard markets.

This is a wide brush painting a number of categories of wagers, including things like total number of three-pointers, total fouls committed, events, and stats.

There also are longer-running prop bets available such as betting on the number of teams from a specific conference to advance to certain stages of the tournament.

NCAA tournament betting tips and strategies

As one of the busiest sports gambling days in the entire sports calendar, there are plenty of options for what wagers and what teams to bet on during the NCAA Tournament.

The number of games and unpredictability of so many of the matchups make it impossible to be fully prepared. However, there are a few notable trends to know that can give you an advantage before hitting send on a wager.

1. Look for tournament experience

Teams and players who have been there before tend to perform better. The NCAA Tournament is a new environment with high stakes that not all players are prepared for.

2. Check strength of schedule

It is easy to fall in love with a dark horse team with an impressive record that can sometimes be deceiving. With so many college basketball teams and some teams qualifying without playing the higher-ranked teams it is difficult to project how teams will stack up.

Be sure to check into the strength of schedule and find out which teams are more battle-tested ahead of the tournament’s start.

3. Search for the Cinderella Team

While it is easier said than done, finding a surprise team that is ready to make some noise is a fast track to some massive payouts. There is at least one team that makes a deep run despite being seeded poorly in every tournament and finding it early on is a huge advantage.

4. Capitalize on live betting

With some many games going on and momentum being such a huge part of college basketball, the NCAA tournament should be an active betting experience.

You can oftentimes get much more favorable odds shortly into a game’s start and the massive momentum swings have a huge impact on these numbers which can create opportunity for sports bettors.

Where can I bet on the NCAA tournament?

The availability of each sportsbook and sports betting as a whole varies from state to state. The biggest operators such as DraftKings and BetMGM will have a wide selection of markets on the NCAA finals, and will also have special promos for players to take advantage of.

Be sure to check in with the most recent legislation in your area, but sports betting has never been more readily available than is currently the case.

How to watch the NCAA finals

Venue: Various venues
Time: March 17 (selection) - April 8 (finals)
Where to watch: CBA, TBS, TNT, TruTV & Paramount+

Sean Barnard

Sean Barnard has worked in sports media for the past five years. He has spent time as the 76ers Lead Writer for Philly Sports Network, Associate Editor at CluchPoints, Eagles Beat Reporter for YardBarker, and more. He also owns and operates his own Podcast Network called Pick Swap Media and is a radio host on Fox 102.5 The Gambler presented by iHeartMedia. Sean has written over 1500 articles and recorded over 500 podcasts and is just getting started. Based out of the Philadelphia region in the United States, Sean is a lifelong passionate sports fan who can be reached on Twitter at @Sean_Barnard1 where he rattles off basketball breakdowns and other news.

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