Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (12/20/23)

It's a fairly quiet night in the NHL with just three games on tap. However, that does not mean there isn't money to be made! Let's dive into a short slate and pad those bankrolls!

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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the NHL games on Wednesday, December 20, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some hockey games. Follow me on Twitter/X @BKemp17.

Today's NHL Betting Picks - New York Islanders vs. Washington Capitals

O/U: 5.5 | Moneyline: WSH (-125)

It's a Metropolitan division tilt tonight in Washington as the Capitals play host to the New York Islanders, a club playing their second game in as many nights.

It was a solid 3-1 win for the Isles over the Edmonton Oilers on home ice Tuesday night but they did get out-shot by a 31-21 margin. Ilya Sorokin was the difference but he will surely give way to backup Semyon Varlamov for this one tonight.

Now, Varlamov has been good with a .919 save percentage through 11 outings. However, he has allowed at least three goals in each of his last five starts. He's been getting peppered with pucks as the Islanders have allowed at least 35 shots in three of Varlamov's last four starts and at least 40 in two of those four starts. He managed to win four in a row before dropping a 5-3 decision to the Canadiens in Montreal his last time out.

The Isles' defense has slipped to 18th with 3.16 goals against per game on the season while they sit 27th in expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five action. Additionally, their 72% clip on the penalty kill sits dead last in the NHL.

The good news for a fading back end is the fact the Capitals have struggled mightily in scoring goals. Their offense not only sits 30th with just 2.39 goals per game but they are dead last with a shocking 9.8% clip on the power play. Alex Ovechkin has just five goals on the season. Nicklas Backstrom may have played his last game in the NHL. This is not the same Capitals offense we are used to seeing year after year.

Their defense has helped them out at 10th overall but regression could be in store as they also sit 21st in expected goals against/60 at 5v5. Their penalty kill has been solid at 12th with an 81.5% mark.

This is a hard league to play two games in as many nights. The Capitals are 8-4-2 on home ice but perhaps most important here is the 6-5-2 record the Islanders carry on the road. This is a contest the home side knows they need to have as they look to gain ground on the Islanders in the Metro standings.

Pick: Capitals moneyline (-125, DraftKings sportsbook)

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Today's NHL Betting Picks - Detroit Red Wings vs. Winnipeg Jets

O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: WPG (-155)

It's a rare cross-conference tilt tonight in Manitoba as the Winnipeg Jets and Detroit Red Wings get together for their lone meeting at Canada Life Centre.

The Jets had won six of seven before taking a 3-2 loss at the hands of the Montreal Canadiens on Monday night. Their offense, which had scored 11 goals over their previous two games, was cooled. Still, their defense remained solid as they have allowed two regulation goals or fewer in eight consecutive games while they haven't surrendered more than three goals in a game since Nov. 2 against the Vegas Golden Knights.

They are a solid 13th in expected goals against/60 at 5v5 but they also sit 27th on the penalty kill. It's tough to imagine this stealth run on defense to last much longer.

This is a Red Wings offense that sits fifth overall with 3.55 goals per game on the season. However, they're also 30th in expected goals for/60 at 5v5. Again, it's awfully difficult to envision this high-powered offense to keep producing at this level given the underlying data.

Nonetheless, the Wings catch a big break in this one as Connor Hellebuyck will give way to Laurent Brossoit in the Winnipeg crease. The heavily-used Hellebuyck sports a 2.43 GAA and .916 Sv% across 23 outings, going 15-6-2 in the process. Brossoit hasn't been bad but his .909 Sv% is a drop off from Hellebuyck despite owning a solid 2.57 GAA. Brossoit sits a solid 27th of 69 qualified goaltenders in goals saved above average, as per Hockey Reference, but Hellebuyck sits seventh in that department.

It's not a major drop but a drop nonetheless. Let's look for the Red Wings to capitalize at quality plus-money odds.

Pick: Red Wings moneyline (+130, DraftKings sportsbook)

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