Toledo vs. UMass prediction: College football picks, odds

Saturday looks like it could be a beautiful and chaotic day of college football.

Alabama and Texas A&M will meet in College Station for what is essentially an elimination game for the playoff, undefeated Louisville plays host to Notre Dame, No. 1 Georgia has a tricky game against 5-0 Kentucky and Texas takes on Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.

All of these games have potential to shake up the entire season and will attract plenty of betting attention, but we’re not here to discuss the headliners.

No, we’re here to break down what looks like the ugliest tilt on the entire slate. 

We’re here to talk about Toledo vs. UMass at McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Hadley, Mass.

(And before you run away, just remember that the money you win on Toledo vs. UMass is just as green as the cash you win on the Red River Rivalry.)

The new campaign couldn’t have gotten off to a better start for UMass. Coming off three straight years with a 1-11 record (not including the COVID-shortened 2020 season when they went 0-4), the Minutemen got off the blocks hot in 2023 with an impressive win on the road against New Mexico State.

And yes a win over NMSU is hardly a massive result for most teams, but for UMass it looked like the first step back to some sort of respectability.

It also validated what plenty of college football diehards thought about the Minutemen going into the new year — they would be better than expected thanks to a new quarterback (Taisun Phommachanh) and some other players (Mark Pope, Anthony Simpson) brought in via the transfer portal. 

Things haven’t gone as swimmingly for UMass since the season-opening win — which is a nice way of saying the team is 1-5 on the season now — but the results haven’t been that bad.

The Minutemen lost by a combined five points to Eastern Michigan and New Mexico, plus a 13-point loss to Miami (Ohio) was gutsy given that UMass was down 21 points on two separate occasions and made it competitive despite playing backup quarterback Carlos Davis. 

And what’s most notable here is that UMass is averaging nearly 27 points per contest.

Even in a blowout loss at Auburn the Minutemen found a way into the end zone twice. Not too shabby for a team that went over 10 points in just five of 12 games in 2022. 

With an offense that can score at a decent clip, UMass actually becomes a viable bet at numbers like this.

Furthermore, this is also a terrific spot for the Minutemen.

Toledo is the betting favorite to win the MAC and comes into this game with a 2-0 record in the conference after narrowly defeating Northern Illinois.

Betting on College Football?

I don’t think a non-conference showdown with an independent team is going to be all that high on their priority list.

They may not even get off the bus.

And if the Rockets get out to a big lead, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them take their foot off the pedal a bit and rest some starters rather than risk injury in what is a relatively meaningless game for them. 

There are a lot of college football bettors out there who had UMass on their betting blacklist for years, but the time has come to take them off and get behind the Minutemen at +19.5.

The pick: UMass +19.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)