Toronto Raptors betting trends: Scottie Barnes can do it all
The Toronto Raptors have been a painfully average team this season.
The latest: Toronto was a buyer at last year's trade deadline but if the first 20 games are anything to go by, the team should be a seller this time around. The Raptors are 9-11 and have some glaring inconsistencies. Scottie Barnes and Dennis Schroder are bright spots on this team while Gary Trent Jr. has been nearly invisible.
Here are the Raptors betting trends to know as of December 3.
Raptors betting trends
Stuck in no-mans land
The Raptors aren't good enough to compete for a title and they're not quite bad enough to fall into the draft lottery. That's the last place a professional sports franchise should want to be.
Toronto sits 11th in the Eastern Conference at the season's one-quarter mark. Its -1.3 net rating and 111.3 offensive ratings each rank 22nd among all teams while its 112.6 defensive rating ranks 14th. That would suggest this team is below average.
There are nights when the Raptors look good (they beat a healthy Milwaukee Bucks team by 19) and there are nights where they look awful (they were held to 91 points against the bottom-feeding Portland Trail Blazers).
All in all, these inconsistencies are the signs of a poorly constructed roster with an inexperienced head coach. Even though Toronto is 10-9-1 ATS as of Dec. 3, we wouldn't recommend betting on it in any capacity moving forward, simply because of how unpredictable the team has been so far.
The Raptors would likely be wise to field offers for Pascal Siakam, who is one season away from being on the wrong side of 30. There are a few players they should keep, though, and Barnes is undoubtedly one of them.
Barnes is the guy
If there was any doubt about Barnes' ability to be a franchise player following his sophomore slump, he's erased it.
The third-year small forward is averaging career highs in points (19.6), rebounds (9.1), assists (5.5) and blocks (1.3). The PPG number might not jump off the page, but Barnes isn't being asked to take 20-plus shots a game.
He is averaging 15.7 shot attempts per game, which is 47th in the NBA. But Barnes is making the most of those opportunities with a 52.9 effective field goal percentage while shooting 38.2% from beyond the arc. Both of those numbers are career highs.
Betting on Barnes to clear his PRA line has proven to be profitable this season — as has betting on him to record a double-double.
He's got eight double-doubles in 20 games — coming one counting stat short in four additional games — and that market is typically priced generously around +150 or higher. When Barnes is going up against a poor rebounding team, bettors should look to back him in multiple markets.
Raptors betting trends: Toronto has a VanVleet doppelganger
The Raptors fumbled the bag when they let Fred VanVleet walk for free last offseason instead of moving him at the trade deadline.
But the front office partially righted that wrong by bringing in Schroder as his replacement. To call the 30-year-old a VanVleet doppelganger would be fitting, and not just because it's a German word. Check out how the two are performing this season:
Those are very similar numbers and it's reasonable to suggest Schroder is playing better than VanVleet, considering the difference in minutes per game. Oh, and Schroder is making $28.4 million less per season.
Look to back Toronto's point guard in the assist or PRA market when he's going up against teams with porous defences.
What happened to Trent?
In his first two full seasons with the Raptors, Trent averaged 17.9 points per game and was shooting 37.7% from deep.
It would've been reasonable to expect a big leap for the 24-year-old considering he hasn't reached his prime. But Trent has been relegated to a bench role, and his production has plummeted as a result.
The former Trail Blazer started 113 of 136 games under Nick Nurse but has only started two of 17 this season with Darko Rajakovic in charge. Trent is still seeing 25.8 minutes per night but is only averaging 11.0 PPG on 39.9/36.4/56.7 shooting splits.
It's worth noting Trent put up 14 and 17 points in the two games where he started. The potential for Trent to improve is there, but we would recommend fading him as long as he's coming off the bench.
