Toronto Raptors vs Detroit Pistons: Prediction, starting lineups and betting tips

The Toronto Raptors take on the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday, marking their third and final meeting this season. The rebuilding squads split their first two matchups 1-1, so Wednesday’s contest will decide their season series.

In their first matchup in Toronto on Nov. 19, the Raptors blew out the Pistons 142-113. However, Detroit got revenge on Dec. 30, winning 129-127 at home to end its NBA-record-tying 28-game losing streak.

Plenty has changed for both teams since their last showdown. The Pistons (11-53), led by rising star guard Cade Cunningham, have shown signs of improvement lately.

They’ve won two of their last three games, most recently a 114-97 home victory over the Charlotte Hornets (16-49) on Monday. Nonetheless, they still have the NBA’s second-worst record.

As for the Raptors (23-42), they’ve been hit with a rash of injuries, most notably to first-time All-Star forward Scottie Barnes (hand).

They enter Wednesday losers of four straight games and six of their last seven. That includes Monday’s 125-119 road loss to the defending champion Denver Nuggets (45-20) in which they surrendered a 22-point lead.

Notably, Toronto owes its top-six protected 2024 first-round draft pick to the San Antonio Spurs. Meanwhile, it has the league’s seventh-worst record. Thus, the Raptors could be incentivized to pull the plug on their season to increase their chances of retaining their pick.

Detroit, on the other hand, appears to be a near-lock to finish in the NBA’s bottom three and secure top NBA draft lottery odds (14.0%). So, the Pistons are likelier to play semi-competitive basketball over their final 18 games.

Toronto Raptors vs Detroit Pistons: Preview, starting lineups, betting tips and prediction

Wednesday’s matchup between the Raptors and Pistons takes place at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. The contest tips off at 7 p.m. EST on Bally Sports DET and TSN. It can also be streamed on NBA League Pass and FuboTV.

Additionally, fans can tune in to the showdown via radio with 97.1 FM The Ticket and TSN Radio 1050.

Moneyline: Raptors (+130) vs Pistons (-155)

Spread: Raptors (+3.5) vs Pistons (-3.5)

Total (Over/Under): Raptors (o232.0) vs Pistons (u232.0)

The odds could change closer to tip-off, as the odds listed were based on available information at the time of writing.

Toronto Raptors vs Detroit Pistons: Preview

During the Pistons’ last three games, in which they won two, they’ve been led by Cunningham’s strong all-around production. The 22-year-old is averaging 29.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 9.7 assists and 3.0 3-pointers per game on 46.0% shooting.

During that span, Detroit has also benefitted from a combined 37.0 ppg from sophomore guard Jaden Ivey and trade deadline acquisition Simone Fontecchio. Meanwhile, sophomore center Jalen Duren continues to be a nightly double-double threat, averaging 12.7 ppg and 10.7 rpg over his last three outings.

As for the Raptors, they have been extremely shorthanded during their four-game losing streak. During that stretch, shooting guard Gary Trent Jr. has led the team in scoring (23.0 ppg). However, he has appeared in just three of their four losses.

Meanwhile, midseason acquisitions Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are averaging 22.3 ppg and 21.3 ppg, respectively, in three appearances apiece during Toronto’s losing skid.

Unfortunately for Raptors fans, Trent, Quickley and Barrett could all be sidelined on Wednesday. That would open the door for Toronto’s young prospects to get extended playing time. Sharpshooting rookie Gradey Dick and sophomore wing Ochai Agbaji stand to benefit the most.

For the season, the Raptors rank 20th in offensive rating (113.7) and 24th in defensive rating (117.6). Meanwhile, the Pistons rank 25th in offensive rating (110.9) and 28th in defensive rating (119.1).

Regarding injury reports, Toronto could be without all its starters and a few bench players. Barnes (hand), Jakob Poeltl (finger), Barrett (personal), Chris Boucher (knee) and D.J. Carton (ankle) are listed as out. Meanwhile, Quickley (hip), Trent (groin) and Mouhamadou Gueye (hand) are considered questionable.

On the flip side, Detroit should be near full strength. Rookie forward Ausar Thompson (illness/asthma) is listed as questionable. However, he is the only player on the Pistons’ injury report.

So, despite being the league’s second-worst team record-wise, Detroit should have the talent advantage over Toronto. At the very least, the Pistons will have considerably more size and should be able to take advantage of the Raptors’ undersized rotation.

Toronto Raptors vs Detroit Pistons: Starting lineups, subs and rotations

Toronto and Detroit’s projected starting lineups for Wednesday’s showdown are as follows:

Raptors: PG - Immanuel Quickley (GTD)/ Javon Freeman-Liberty, SG - Gary Trent Jr. (GTD)/Gradey Dick, SF - Bruce Brown, PF - Ochai Agbaji, C - Kelly Olynyk

If Quickley and Trent are ruled out, the Raptors will need their young players to step up offensively. Outside of Dick and Agbaji, reserve guard Javon Freeman-Liberty and backup stretch big man Jontay Porter could receive increased opportunities.

However, Toronto’s offense will likely run through veterans Bruce Brown and Kelly Olynyk, who offer valuable frontcourt playmaking.

Pistons: PG - Cade Cunningham, SG - Jaden Ivey, SF - Ausar Thompson (GTD)/Simone Fontecchio, PF - Isaiah Stewart, C - Jalen Duren

Given the Pistons’ size advantage, big men Isaiah Stewart, Duren and James Wiseman should all have opportunities to put up strong numbers. However, Detroit will likely still run its offense through Cunningham and Ivey.

If Thompson is ruled out, Fontecchio should again see increased run at the small forward position, providing the Pistons with another offensive boost.

Meanwhile, outside of Wiseman, reserve guards Quentin Grimes and Marcus Sasser project to be Detroit’s top bench contributors.

These are predicted lineups, which could change depending on the availability of players whose status are uncertain.

Toronto Raptors vs Detroit Pistons: Betting tips

Cunningham has a 22.5 over/under points prop for Wednesday’s contest, slightly below his season scoring average (22.6 ppg). The 2021 No. 1 pick has scored 23-plus points in three of his last four games.

Meanwhile, he is averaging 24.0 ppg through two games against Toronto. Considering the Raptors are extremely shorthanded, he should be able to hit the over.

As for Ivey, he has an 18.5 over/under points prop, well above his season average (15.4 ppg). The 22-year-old has scored 18 or fewer points in 11 of his last 12 games. Meanwhile, he is averaging just 10.5 ppg through two games against Toronto. So, it makes sense to take the under.

Toronto Raptors vs Detroit Pistons: Prediction

Given Toronto’s injuries, Detroit appears poised to secure consecutive wins for just the third time this season. The Pistons project to have an advantage on both ends, so they should be able to cover the spread (-3.5) at home.

Additionally, given both teams’ lackluster defense and the Raptors’ lack of size, they could surpass their over/under points total of 232.0.