Tottenham vs Chelsea Odds & Picks

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05 November 2023

Tottenham have put everyone on notice in the EPL this season and will look to pick up three more points against the awful Chelsea. With a better offense, our EPL betting picks are backing the Spurs to come out on top.

Spurs prepare for their third London derby in as many weeks when they welcome Chelsea to Tottenham Stadium on Monday for a Premier League clash.

Tottenham found themselves atop the Premier League heading into Matchday 11, and they can reclaim the spot from Manchester City with a victory or pull level with a draw. Having taken 26 of a possible 30 points on offer, they’ve had a terrific start to the league campaign and have yet to drop a point at home.

Chelsea’s lackluster 2023 is coming to a close, but their struggles aren’t for a lack of creating chances. Heading into the weekend, the Blues would have the second-most wins if expected goals mattered more than actual goals. Their inability to finish chances is a key reason they’ve tied their club record for Premier League defeats in a calendar year.

Can Chelsea figure out how to put the ball in the back of the net and continue their dominance at Tottenham, or will Spurs move back out in front of the pack? I discuss that and more in my Tottenham vs Chelsea Premier League picks for Monday, November 6.

Tottenham vs Chelsea best odds

EPL predictions for Tottenham vs Chelsea

While Chelsea can’t seem to buy a goal at times, Tottenham are making the most of their chances. They’ve outperformed their xG tally by 4.6 goals — the fourth-highest differential in the league this season — and rank fifth in goal chances created per 90 minutes. They lead the league in shots taken per 90, and their 6.20 efforts on goal per 90 trails only Manchester City.

More importantly, Spurs are denying teams at a high clip. They’ve conceded 2.6 fewer goals than expected on non-penalty chances, the best differential in the league, and their 0.15 goals allowed per shot on target are also tops in the EPL.

That’s just going to make things tougher for Chelsea on Monday. Their 13 goals scored through 10 matches are far fewer than the 18.2 xG registered, easily the biggest gap of any team in the league.

And that number is made worse when you realize it’s higher because of the quality of their chances, not due to the volume of attempts. They sit mid-table in efforts on goal per 90 minutes but are held down by putting only 30% of their chances on target.

Tottenham have faced four teams at home so far in league play, including Manchester United and Liverpool. They’ve conceded just two goals while scoring exactly two in all four outings. They’re playing amazing football at the moment, and are getting players back from injury — including fullback Destiny Udogie, who is expected to be available for the match.

Chelsea, simply put, are on the opposite end of that spectrum. Their injury list could probably finish mid-table, as they’re missing the creativity brought by wingback Reece James and new forward signing Christopher Nkunku.

While James was able to play an hour against Blackburn in the EFL Cup this week, former Spurs manager Pochettino stressed he needs to be eased back. As such, he’s likely to be only available off the bench. There are also concerns about the health of Cole Palmer and Mykhailo Mudryk, although both are anticipated to be at least on the bench.

Spurs are the better side, are in better form, and should have their preferred starting XI.

My best bet: Tottenham moneyline (+120 at TonyBet)

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Tottenham vs Chelsea same-game parlay

Tottenham ML

Tottenham TT Over 1.5

Second half to have more goals

My same-game parlay at bet365 banks on Spurs to score multiple goals with the bulk of the action coming after halftime.

Tottenham have scored exactly two goals in all four home fixtures in the league so far, and have failed to score multiple goals in their 10 Premier League matches just once this season. Chelsea conceded two goals each to Brentford and Arsenal in the past three matches, and have multiple key players out in defense. Take Spurs to bag at least two.

Chelsea have conceded just three first-half goals this season, but they’ve conceded eight after the interval. 14 of Tottenham’s 22 goals have come in the second half, and they’ve outscored their opponents after halftime in eight of their 10 matches. I’ll back the second stanza to feature more goals than the first.

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Tottenham vs Chelsea side and Over/Under analysis

TonyBet’s +120 is the best price you can get on Tottenham right now, with most books down to +115 as the line has dropped throughout the week. Chelsea winning is favored over the draw on the 3-way line, with a price of +230 the best on offer. The draw pays out as high as +280, but the last six meetings between these sides have finished level just once.

As for the total of 2.5 goals, only one of the past seven meetings at Tottenham have gone Over. The public is banking on that trend ending, with the Over 2.5 costing -148 or more.

Spurs have kept four Premier League clean sheets this season, with two of those coming against lowly Luton and Bournemouth. And for all their struggles to finish, Chelsea have scored in nine of their 13 matches across all competitions, with three of those bagels coming in consecutive matches in September.

I’m projecting this as a 2-1 win for Spurs, so I’d lean Over. That said, I’d suggest waiting a bit and getting a better price live. If these teams play as they have of late, the bulk of the scoring should come after halftime which allows you to lay less juice for the Over after 15 to 20 minutes.

Tottenham vs Chelsea game info

Tottenham vs Chelsea key injuries

Tottenham: Desinty Udogie D (Probable), Ben Davies D (Doubtful), Ivan Perisic M (Out).
Chelsea: Reece James D (Doubtful), Christopher Nkunku F (Out), Armando Broja F (Doubtful).