Trail Blazers vs Clippers Odds, Spread, Props & Predictions (Dec. 11)
Already without Robert Williams III due to knee surgery, Portland’s injury report for Monday also includes Jerami Grant (out, concussion), Deandre Ayton (questionable, knee), and Malcolm Brogdon (questionable, knee). As of 1:00 pm ET, it remains unclear whether Ayton and Brogdon will be in Monday’s NBA lineups. Neither played in Portland’s last game, a 125-112 home loss to Dallas on Friday.
LAC Gets Back Over .500
Considered an outside threat in the NBA Championship odds at the start of the season, the Clippers’ early play left a lot to be desired. A six-game losing streak from Nov. 1 to Nov. 14 dropped them four games under .500, and they didn’t dig out of that hole until their most-recent game, a dominant 117-101 win at Utah.
If the season ended today, the #9 Clippers would find themselves in the 9-vs-10 Play-In Tournament game in the NBA playoff bracket. But they’re only 1.5 games behind the #6 Sacramento Kings and their +4.0 point differential is actually third-best in the Western Conference, portending better results moving forward.
Another great omen for the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard had a season-high 41 points against the Jazz, the ninth time in his last 11 games he’s hit at least 20 points. He failed to reach that plateau in five of the first ten games this season, and he’s still sporting a 20.7 Player Efficiency Rating, which is 1.3 lower than his PER in any of the last eight seasons, and 2.6 lower than his career average.
Leonard (22.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 3.6 APG) is now just behind Paul George (23.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.0 APG) for the team-lead in scoring.
Head coach Ty Lue is still struggling to work James Harden into the LAC offense. The ageing superstar is averaging just 15.8 PPG in 16 games with the team and has a PER of just 18.3, which is 3.3 lower than he recorded last season and 6.0 lower than his career average. He has been more reliable from beyond the arc this season, though, hitting at 40.4% from three. He’s never averaged better than 39% in any previous season and is a lifetime 36.3% from three.
Blazers Fading Due to Injuries
From Nov. 22 to Nov. 30, Portland won three of four, and their only loss in that span was a 108-102 setback to Milwaukee in which they blew a 26-point second-half lead. In other words, in the middle of November, the revamped, Damian Lillard-less Blazers looked like they had turned a corner.
But injuries continue to plague the young Portland roster, and they enter Monday on a three-game losing streak. Only one of their top-eight scorers has played all 21 games this season. The other seven have missed an average of 7.5 games each.
On the bright side, Anfernee Simons (25.2 PPG, 5.3 APG) has returned from a two-month absence, Utah to overtime in a 118-113 road loss and easily covered the 12.5-point spread during a 110-106 loss at Golden State. They lost to Dallas by 12 last time out, but they battled back from a 19-point first-half deficit and trimmed the lead to one in the fourth quarter before fading late.
Blazers vs Clippers Player Props
Player props and odds from the DraftKings Sportsbook app on Dec. 11.
With the Blazers’ lineup still a question mark, Monday’s NBA props only list LAC players for this game. Kawhi Leonard has the highest over/under point total at 23.5, one higher than Paul George (22.5).
Blazers vs Clippers Prediction
Portland is in a tough spot if Ayton and Brogdon are both sidelined. But either way, this is a big spread against a team that’s been nothing short of competitive in each of its last seven games, injuries and all.
LAC’s 9-12 ATS record is the seventh-worst in the NBA. They have only been double-digit favorites one other time this season- at home against the Nikola Jokic-less Nuggets – and they lost straight-up (113-104).
This spread is as high as 13 at FanDuel and I’ll take the Blazers to cover.
POR vs LAC pick: Blazers +13 (-110)
Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:
- 7-5-2 ATS (+1.35 units)
- 3-2 ML (+1.42 units)
- 3-7 player props (-4.27 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
