Trail Blazers vs Thunder Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Covers

23 January 2024

Trail Blazers vs Thunder Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Trail Blazers are understandably long-shot underdogs against an Thunder team that has outscored them by more than 100 points in two meetings this season. It's no surprise that we're fading Portland tonight once again.

The Portland Trail Blazers probably don’t want to be reminded of what happened the last time they faced off against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

But don’t worry, they probably won’t read this, so I can remind you that the Thunder obliterated the Trail Blazers 139-77 for the fifth-largest margin of victory in NBA history.

And while covering another -61.5 alternate spread is unlikely, the NBA odds think there is a good chance of another blowout between these two Northwest Division foes as OKC is favored by nearly two touchdowns.

But is there any chance there is value in Portland as underdogs? I break down this division matchup and bring you the best bet, plus a same-game parlay in my NBA picks and predictions for Trail Blazers vs. Thunder.

Trail Blazers vs Thunder odds

Trail Blazers vs Thunder predictions

While a 62-point evisceration is certainly uncommon in the NBA, the poor play from the Portland Trail Blazers is not.

While the team knew it was going to go through a rebuild following the trade of Damian Lillard, I’m not sure the Trail Blazers expected to be this bad. Portland is 12-30 with the worst net rating in the Western Conference.

The Trail Blazers' biggest problem? Getting buckets. Youngsters Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson have struggled with their shooting. And while veterans like Malcolm Brogdon and Jerami Grant are fine, they are not game-changers on a team like this. As a result, the Blazers offense stinks. Portland ranks dead last in offensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and scoring offense, putting up just 107.5 points per game.

To make matters worse, it sounds like Brogdon could be on the move via a trade as soon as today.

Tonight’s matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder should be fun for the Blazers then, right?

The Thunder just keep rolling. They have pulled out of a mini-slump, earning solid victories over a red-hot Utah Jazz team and then against the Western Conference-leading Minnesota Timberwolves in their last two games.

OKC now sits at 29-13 thanks, of course, to the MVP-level play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. But more importantly, this group has depth behind SGA and plays as a team, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. The Thunder are so long and athletic that it feels like they can get a hand in the face of every shot. As a result, they enter this matchup ranking fifth in defensive rating and third in opponent eFG%.

The Blazers team total is sitting at 109.5. Portland has played below this number in seven of its last 11 games and has scored 168 points (pause for dramatic effect) COMBINED in TWO games against the Thunder this season.

If you want to get crazy, Under 99.5 (something the Blazers have done in five of their last 11 games) for an alternate team total can be found at +400 but I’ll happily take Under 109.5 for tonight’s best bet.

My best bet: Trail Blazers team total Under 109.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Trail Blazers vs Thunder same-game parlay

Trail Blazers team total Under 109.5Deandre Ayton Over 8.5 rebounds

Anfernee Simons Under 21.5 points

But it’s not all doom and gloom for the Blazers. One thing OKC isn’t overly good at is rebounding. Despite the Thunder’s athleticism, they are not a traditionally "big" team and that has cost them on the glass where they rank next-to-last in rebounding rate.

That means I’m looking at Trail Blazers center Deandre Ayton. He averages 10.4 rebounds per game and our Covers Prop Projections has him at 9.3 tonight with a rebounding total of 8.5.

OK, back to piling on the Blazers. Let’s close this SGP out with Anfernee Simons to go Under 21.5 points. Simons averages 22.8 points per game this season, but has stayed below this number in seven of his last nine games and gets a tough matchup tonight against the Thunder.

No-sweat 3+ leg SGP every day

Bonus bets back if you don’t win! Claim Now

Get a 33% boost for one NBA bet

eg. -115 BOOSTS to +116! Claim Now

Trail Blazers vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis

The Thunder opened as 14-point home favorites, and, a little stunningly, they’ve come down to -13.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.

I say stunningly because the Thunder and Trail Blazers have played twice this season. Once in Portland, where the Thunder were 6.5-point road favorites, and then more recently in OKC in that infamous meeting where they closed as 13.5-point home favorites. That’s not the stunning part. The stunning part is that the Blazers have a -105-point differential in those two games. Two. I can’t get over that.

This is a lot of points to lay in any NBA game. But this is a lay’em with the favorite spot or stay away.

Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 237 and the Under has been hit hard, moving the line down to 233. And that makes sense. The previous meeting in OKC had a closing total of 237 and fell well below the number because the Blazers couldn’t score. I would tend to agree with the early money because of that but I’ll stick to the Portland team total Under instead.

Trail Blazers vs Thunder betting trend to know

The Trail Blazers and Thunder have played 10 times since January 2022. OKC is 9-1 ATS in those 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Thunder.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.