Transaction Analysis: Frost Deal Works for Both Sides

Restricted free agent Flyers center Morgan Frost agreed to a new two-year contract with the team on Wednesday. Last week, the organization's President of Hockey Operations, Keith Jones indicated that the organization was close to reaching a deal with Frost's agent, Darren Ferris, of Quartexx Management. The final agreement came a couple days after Labor Day weekend.

The new deal carries a $2.1 million average annual value (AAV). With the AAV, the contract is structured to pay Frost a $1.45 million base salary in 2023-24 plus a $350,000 signing bonus. In the all-important second year of the contract, Frost will receive a $2.4 million salary (no signing bonus installment).

Come July 1, 2025, Frost will be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent. His qualifying offer, set by salary in the second year of his current two-year deal will be $2.4 million. Barring a longer-term deal that preempts unrestricted free agency or the Flyers declining to tender a qualifying offer, Frost can become an unrestricted free agent for the first time on July 1, 2026.

Frost, who celebrated his 24th birthday on May 14 of this year, turned his 2022-23 season around last December. Over the final 55 games of the campaign, Frost led all Flyers in total points (40), even strength points (36). and assists (24). He was third on the club in that span with 16 goals, of which 15 came at even strength (one fewer than co-leaders Travis Konency and Tippett, although it should be noted that Konecny missed 16 games due to injury).

Overall, Frost had 19 goals, 27 assists and 46 points in 81 games. Overall, however, the center's 2022-23 season was one of polar opposites: the final 55 games versus the first 26.

Contract negotiations are largely based on leverage. Frost did not have much leverage entering the 2023 offseason. For one, he was not eligible for arbitration. (By contrast, coming off his entry-level deal, Noah Cates filed for arbitration this summer before agreeing to a new two-year deal with a $2.625 AAV).

Frost only earned $800,000 in 2022-23, because he was a 10.2(c) restricted free agent (RFA). This is a category of free agency, caused by insufficient service time to gain full RFA rights (typically due to injury-related time missed while the player was on his entry-level deal). In Frost's case, a season-ending shoulder injury in his second game of the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season, was the primary factor. A 10.2 (c) free agent is ineligible to receive an offer sheet from other teams in addition to ineligibility for salary arbitration.

At Frost's salary level last season, the Collective Bargaining Agreement required a qualifying offer of $880,000 on a one-year contract. There was never a question over whether the Flyers would issue the qualifying offer or that a final agreement would be for a significantly higher amount.

The question was when the deal would be reached. That the agreement came shortly before the start of training camp was not really a surprise. Frost could hardly have risked missing the start of camp. By the same token, the Flyers need Frost for the entirety of camp, given that Sean Couturier is coming back from two back surgeries and and 18-month gap since his last game. Meanwhile, following an offseason trade, Kevin Hayes is now a member of the St. Louis Blues.

Ultimately, this is a deal that makes sense for both sides. From the Flyers standpoint, it's one that carries a team-friendly AAV for the next two seasons. For Frost, it means his 2021-22 salary has more than doubled and it was accomplished without arbitration eligibility. A year ago, Owen Tippett similarly signed a two-year deal (expiring after the 2023-24 campaign) at a $1.5 million AAV.

There is also some shared risk. Frost is essentially betting on himself. He's gambling that he will not only maintain but build upon what he did in the final 55 games of last season that he'll be in line either for a more significant raise and a UFA-preempting deal come the summer of 2026 or a UFA payday in a higher cap-ceiling market come the following summer. The Flyers, meanwhile, are risking being the side that lacks leverage in a future negotiation with the Frost camp if the player produces to his full potential.

Ultimately, the key questions to be answered are whether Frost can build off the final two-thirds of last season, and what his role will be in the Flyers' lineup with Couturier returning and Cates coming off a strong rookie season. Frost's even strength production last season was strong but he only had five power play points (1 PPG, 4 PPA) last season. He'll need to boost his power play production while maintaining similar five-on-five out, but he'll also need sufficient ice time and skilled regular linemates to accomplish that goal.

Last season, player's surge came shortly after head coach John Tortorella moved Frost up in the lineup in the final days of November 2023. From October 27 until the latter half of November, Frost was primarily deployed on the fourth line with a revolving cast of linemates that included Nicolas Deslauriers, Zack MacEwen, Kieffer Bellows, Wade Allison, Max Willman and Scott Laughton.

Over a 10-game stretch in that span, Frost produced only a single point (0g, 1a) and skated a season low of 7:43 of ice time against Florida on Oct. 27 and 8:37 against Columbus on Nov. 10. The nadir, however, came on Nov. 2 in Toronto. With family and friends in attendance, the Aurora, Ontario, native scratched in the building where his father, Andy, was the Maple Leafs longtime public address announcer.

Frost's confidence in his game was at a low ebb. A fortuitous goal in Washington on Nov. 23 -- his first since a two-goal outburst on opening night against New Jersey -- helped the player to stop pressing so noticeably. By the time of the Black Friday matinee, Frost was back regularly in the top nine of the Flyers lineup. However, it took a couple more weeks for the points to start coming.

Through 26 games, Frost had just three goals, two assists and six points to show for the season. The turnaround started when Frost began to regularly center a line with Tippett and veteran winger James van Riemsdyk; a trio that stayed together for a span of five weeks.

On Dec. 9, the Flyers began a four-game road trip with a match against the Vegas Golden Knights. Frost did not get on the scoresheet but had three prime scoring chances and set up three others in 14:06 of ice time. The explosion came two nights later in Arizona as Frost had a four-point game (1g, 3a).

Combining the months of December and January, during which time the Flyers surged enough to arrive at the NHL All-Star break at "hockey .500" (21-21-9), Frost posted seven goals and 13 assists for 20 points. Regular linemate Tippett had 18 points (8g, 10a) in that stretch.

February was a brutal month for the entire Flyers team, especially after the club's best season-long offensive performer, Konecny, went down with an injury in a road game against Calgary. As a team, the Flyers went 2-7-1, and scored a meager 1.80 goals per game. No one was immune. Frost (1g, 3a) and Tippett (3g, 1a) had four points apiece for the month, and spent some time on separate lines as the Flyers tried out different combinations in the search for goals.

In March, the Flyers went 6-4-3 and averaged 3.08 goals per game. The Flyers reunited Frost (5g, 5a, 10 points) and Tippett (6g, 4a, 10 points) during portions of the month, most commonly with Joel Farabee (4g, 4a, eight points) on left wing.

In April, the Flyers finished out the season with a 2-6-0 record in the final eight games. Frost (3g, 4a, seven points) and Tippett (4g, 3a, seven points) tied each other in points for the third straight month. Returning from injury, Konecny also had seven points (4g, 3a) in the final eight games, and was centered by Frost in the final four games. Farabee closed out with five points (3g, 2a) in the final eight matches.