Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs features 2 potential stars

Of the six Kentucky Downs stakes races on Saturday, the one most likely to produce a Breeders’ Cup winner is probably the Grade 2, $1 million Turf Sprint, which features two intriguing 4-year-olds entering the prime of their careers and who both love to sprint on turf.

Cogburn and Nobals are the two turf sprinters in question. The former runner carries an undefeated record on turf from three tries. If Cogburn can pick up his fourth win in a row in the Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs this week, he will head to Santa Anita in November as a potential star in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.

But Nobals will provide a test for Cogburn in this spot, and possibly in the Breeders’ Cup as well assuming their year-end goals are the same.

Both runners exit the Troy Stakes (G3) at Saratoga last month. In that race, Nobals set a fast pace under pressure from Remuda, with opening fractions of 21.92 and 45.19 seconds. Those numbers might not seem very fast at first glance, but the track was in a soft condition, which usually slows the fractions.

Initially, Nobals burst clear of Remuda at the top of the stretch. But that is the exact moment when Cogburn tipped outside of Remuda to set up his final move. Despite Nobals’ attempt to break free, Cogburn ran him down for the win.

Cogburn completed the 5 1/2-furlong race over soft ground in 1:03.70, which resulted in a 100 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form and a 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He also posted his third straight turf win in three tries after winning the Chamberlain Bridge Stakes and Grand Prairie Turf Stakes in his first two attempts over the green surface at Lone Star Park.

Following a decent career running in dirt sprints, the son of Not This Time has been a new colt on turf. Forget his speed figures on either surface. Cogburn’s newfound will to win on turf is exciting to watch, considering his last two dirt races resulted in off-the-board finishes.

To give Nobals credit though, he endured the fast pace while leading the field under pressure in the Troy, and then he lost by only 3/4 of a length. Even though he lost, Nobals arguably worked harder than Cogburn.

If Nobals could slip away with an advantage in the Turf Sprint this week instead of enduring pressure, then he might turn the tables on Cogburn.

But to establish the advantage, Nobals will need to outfoot two other speed horses in Noble Reflection and One Timer on the rail. Another challenge for Nobals is the slight stretchout to six furlongs in this race.

If Nobals cannot get the job done in this spot, the cutback to five furlongs in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint might help. Even though the race has been held on the 6 1/2-furlong downhill turf course before at Santa Anita, the official web site for the race indicates they will run five furlongs on the main course.

In a five-furlong Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint on the main Santa Anita turf course, Nobals can avoid the traffic with his speed. Cogburn made use of stalking tactics in the Troy, but in a larger field, he will need to avoid becoming shuffled back early and then having to navigate through traffic later on.

For the Turf Sprint this week, Cogburn holds the advantage from a pace-scenario standpoint. In a six-furlong race, Cogburn can sit close in a stalking position and then fire when needed. If forced to pick from Cogburn and Nobals in the Kentucky Downs race, Cogburn is the one.

Regardless, both Nobals and Cogburn give the impression of high-quality turf sprinters who should contend for the win this week. Bettors can expect them to enter the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint in November as legitimate contenders, assuming they both go there.