Twins vs. Red Sox prediction: MLB picks, odds Tuesday Apr. 18

Fresh off a brutal Marathon Monday loss to the Angels, the Boston Red Sox will look to bounce back in a three-game home set against the Minnesota Twins. 

So, naturally, we have Twins vs. Red Sox odds and predictions to break down. 

While the Red Sox have struggled early, the Twins have stormed out to a 10-6 start.

However, Boston just picked up three out of four against the Angels, while the Twins dropped two of three to the Yankees.

So, perhaps the Red Sox will carry that momentum into a home win on Tuesday. 

But I seriously doubt it. 

Twins vs. Red Sox odds

Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

Moneyline: Twins (-110) vs. Red Sox (-110)

Spread: Twins -1.5 (+143) vs. Red Sox +1.5 (-170)

Total: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

Twins vs. Red Sox prediction

Chris Sale is broken – at least for the moment. 

Sale’s command is way off, as he’s regularly missing his spots by feet. And when he does hit his spots, he’s getting barreled up like crazy. 

Through three starts, Sale has a 10.7% walk rate. Meanwhile, his fastball is literally the worst pitch in baseball (by wOBA allowed, minimum 50 pitches), while his sinker isn’t far behind. 

The biggest problem with the left-handed Sale is his inability to pitch to right-handed hitters, which bodes poorly on Tuesday. 

The Twins have six right-handed hitters in their current lineup, including two of the best in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. 

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting

The Twins have yet to post big numbers against southpaws, but they’re top-10 in hard-hit rate against the side, so positive regression should be coming. 

Basically, I expect the Twins to tee off on Sale.

Meanwhile, Twins starter Sonny Gray is putting together a career year, having posted a 0.53 ERA and 2.32 FIP in 17 innings across three starts. 

Gray’s batted-ball profile does show some regression, but it’s minimal compared to Sale’s expected production. 

Gray also put together these stats against the White Sox, Astros and Royals, so his stats have come against solid competition. 

It also helps that Gray is a curveball-slider-sinker pitcher, as the Red Sox have a combined -7.2 weighted runs created against the three pitches this year (for comparison, the Red Sox have a combined +12.1 weighted runs created against fastballs, cutters, and changeups). 

Both bullpens are fully rested, but Minnesota’s relievers have been lights out.

The Twins are fourth in bullpen ERA (2.64) and tops in bullpen WHIP (0.97), with Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala, and Jhoan Duran all boasting a sub-2.50 ERA. 

The Twins are on the road, but the Red Sox might have the rest disadvantage after dealing with six hours of “game” play on Monday if you include three separate weather delays (11:10 a.m. ET and 4:35 p.m. ET). 

That’s a long time to be at the park, and I can’t discard that from my handicap. 

Ultimately, the Twins have the advantage in every area of the game, yet the market is pricing these two teams evenly. 

So, I’ll happily fade Sale and bet on the Twins at anything close to even money. 

Twins vs. Red Sox pick

Twins ML (-110, Caesars) | Bet ML to (-120)