Twins vs. White Sox prediction, odds: Chicago may have shed the demons

We have a Twins vs. White Sox prediction as the Pale Hose try to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. However, there wasn’t anything ordinary about Chicago’s victory on Sunday.

Not only did it come against a Rays team with the best record in the game at 23-6, but the White Sox rallied from a 9-5 deficit in the final inning to win 12-9 on an Andrew Vaughn walk-off, three-run home run.

Chicago probably could’ve done without the day off on Monday to avoid cooling off. It’ll now host the division-leading Twins for the final three games on this home stand.

Michael Kopech will get the start for the home side as he gets another shot to pick up his first win of the year. In contrast, Minnesota’s Joe Ryan has won all five decisions and is pitching exceptionally well ahead of this contest.

While the discernible play would be to back Ryan blindly, the circumstances with which Chicago won its last time out give me some reason for pause.

I’ll expand on that further and explain why I prefer to target the total as the best bet in this matchup.

Moneyline: MINN (-164) vs. CHW (+138)

Spread: MINN -1.5 (-102) vs. CHW +1.5 (-118)

Total: Over 8.5 (-118) | Under 8.5 (-104)

Over 8.5 runs

Twins — Joe Ryan (5-0, 2.81 ERA) vs. White Sox — Michael Kopech (0-3, 7.01 ERA)

Is there a chance that the White Sox have somehow snapped out of their funk? In some ways, it’s possible that Chicago’s come-from-behind victory on Sunday was some sort of exorcism that could only be fulfilled with the most unpredictable of scenarios.

And now the White Sox can pull off another surprising result against a pitcher such as Ryan, who remains perfect on the year.

I’m not trying to push any conspiracy theory, but I’ve always believed the baseball gods have a good sense of humor, and I don’t want to get caught under their spell if they already have shenanigans in store for this game.

While there’s no question that Ryan has been spectacular this season, he’ll be facing a White Sox roster that, according to Baseball Savant, is hitting .500 in 15 plate appearances with a .611 wOBA, a .727 xSLG and an average launch angle of 23.5 degrees.

If we turn to Kopech, his numbers are flat-out woeful, given his 7.44 FIP and 9.86 xERA, that point to further regression. The White Sox right-hander has struggled mightily with his command, issuing 5.61 walks per nine innings.

As a result, Kopech is often behind in the count, which forces him to pitch more inside the zone, resulting in an elevated 2.81 HR/9 ratio, according to FanGraphs.

Kopech has never been much of a ground-ball pitcher, as evidenced by his 0.77 GB/FB mark. However, it’s ridiculous when 25% of your fly balls leave the park as a souvenir for a lucky fan.

According to our Action Labs Weather Report, the forecast calls for 12-13 mph wind gusts blowing out to right field at U.S. Cellular Field. Thus, given the windy conditions combined with a Twins lineup that ranks eighth with a .176 ISO rate, we could be in store for a high-scoring affair.

And if you’re still unconvinced, our Action Labs database shows that the over is a perfect 5-0 this season with Ryan on the mound.

After shopping around, you can still grab the capacity to go over 8.5 runs at FanDuel.