UFC 280: Chookagian vs Fiorot Picks and Predictions

Manon Fiorot is riding high and has an opportunity to jump into the title picture with a win over Katlyn Chookagian. Our betting picks don't anticipate a knockout, but still think Fiorot will stand tall in dominant fashion.

Katlyn Chookagian vs. Manon Fiorot is scheduled for three rounds in the flyweight division as a featured attraction on the UFC 280 undercard. Chookagian is clawing her way back to a rematch with Valentina Shevchenko, but the rising star from France is ready to derail her hopes and secure her own shot at the legend.

UFC odds have Fiorot favored at -205 to come up big in the toughest fight of her career. Chookagian will have to keep her title hopes alive against a tough opponent as a +175 underdog.

Chookagian vs Fiorot fight odds

Chookagian vs Fiorot method of victory odds

Chookagian vs Fiorot picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Chookagian vs Fiorot betting preview

The going theme of the UFC 280 card is divisional mainstays facing off against their generational replacements, and this bout fits squarely into that narrative. Chookagian has been one of the best fighters at flyweight for a long time, and a title reign might have been a possibility if Shevchenko never existed. Fiorot is blazing hot going into the biggest fight of her career. She’ll find herself on the shortlist for a title shot if she wins in impressive fashion.

Fiorot is a strong striker who hasn’t lost since dropping her pro debut in 2018. She’s won two of her four UFC fights inside the distance and based on the strength of her recent performances, Fiorot is a fighter poised to make some noise. She was tested in a back-and-forth battle with Jennifer Maia last March where she was rocked, but she never stopped taking forward steps, bullying Maia to win a clear decision.

Her heavy hands and aggressive style make her a tremendous offensive fighter. She lands 6.60 significant strikes per minute and lands 1.91 takedowns per 15 minutes with six knockouts. The karate black belt delivers big shots and has solid BJJ skills, and she’s put up some impressive numbers so far by outlanding her opponents 311-119 and scoring six takedowns across her last four fights.

A disciplined striker who has tested her mettle with the best the division has to offer, Chookagian remains a legitimate force. She lands 4.56 significant strikes per minute and defends 63% of incoming strikes. She will also have a two-inch height advantage and a three-inch reach advantage to go along with her established experience against top-tier opponents.

Being a very good fighter doesn’t necessarily equal being exciting, which has been the case with Chookagian. Regardless, the blonde battler has been a difficult task for all but the very best in the division. After getting stopped by Jessica Andrade in 2020, Chookagian has rallied back by winning her last four fights. Most recently, she edged out Amanda Ribas last May with some clutch counter-striking. 

It’ll be up to Chookagian to use her veteran resources and upper-body movement to avoid getting pinned up against the cage and counter effectively to slow Fiorot down. Otherwise, Fiorot will work her over to the head and body. If Fiorot can establish an early striking advantage, Chookagian doesn’t have the power or submission credentials to change her fortunes later on.  

Chookagian vs Fiorot tale of the tape

Chookagian vs Fiorot UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Prediction: Fiorot moneyline

Chookagian has been the class of the division for what feels like an eternity, but her talent has a ceiling and it’s hard for us to see how she wins here. Fiorot is on a tear and Chookagian might not be able to keep the fight at the tepid pace she likes to set. 

What we saw from Fiorot in the Maia fight was her working through real adversity, fighting while hurt, and still putting on a commanding performance against an opponent who has been around the block. Maia might have been a sterner match style-wise than Chookagian, but winning here will validate Fiorot as a true challenger to Shevchenko.

Chookagian has been stopped twice and sometimes gets caught up trying to trade blows. She’s also been taken down four times in her last two fights, which doesn’t help her chances here. We can see Fiorot’s heavier strikes mark her up and do more damage, putting her in retreat and liable to eat a takedown or two. There’s too much here to not go with Fiorot, so don’t mind if we do.

Prediction: Manon Fiorot moneyline (-200 at DraftKings)

Best bet: Pick

Chookagian and Fiorot tend to go deep when they fight as Chookagian’s fights last about 14 minutes while Fiorot’s are just under 12. Should Fiorot find a way to stop her durable opponent at any point, it would be quite the statement to make. 

While Fiorot is fully aware of Chookagian’s less-than-scintillating entertainment value, she’ll be content with bullying her and taking shots at her body to slow her down. We can see Fiorot beating her up, but we can’t see her taking her out. The best bet here is Fiorot winning a dominant decision over an overmatched Chookagian at -110.

Pick: Manon Fiorot to win by decision (-110 at DraftKings)