UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill

rotogrinders.com

01 January 0001

MMA Expert Survey – UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill

Who is your favorite fighter for optimal lineups?

Who is your favorite fighter for tournaments?

eys819: Hill
Moneyball16: McKinney
h3budda: Hill

Which stud fighter are you fading in tournaments?

eys819: Stamann
Moneyball16: Burns
h3budda: Andrade

Who is your favorite chalky value play?

eys819:
Moneyball16:
h3budda:

Who is your favorite low-owned value play?

eys819: Craig
Moneyball16: Ferreira
h3budda: I. Bonfim

Which fighter are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

eys819: McKinney
Moneyball16: Andrade
h3budda: Walker

Which fighter are you looking to avoid the most?

eys819: Burns
Moneyball16: Dalby
h3budda: Andrade

Who do you think will have the highest score of the week?

eys819: Almeida
Moneyball16: Almeida
h3budda: Almeida

What are your thoughts about stacking the five-round fight in cash?

eys819: I would definitely stack Figueiredo/Moreno, as the pace and volume has been incredible in each of the previous three meetings, and it is nearly a pick ‘em. Hill/Teixeira is a tougher decision, but either fighter could smash at their mid-range salary. The stack guarantees you have the winner who should score very well, but you also are locking in two losses by stacking both fights. I lean to the floor/safety of stacking both as my preferred route for cash games.

Moneyball16: All four of the fighters in the five-rounders are good cash plays. Figueiredo/Moreno is a favorite to go the full five rounds, and at this point, we have a three-fight sample size saying that these guys are pretty close and this fight should provide a nice floor. The Hill/Teixeira fight I expect to be pretty lopsided, but the issue is that I don’t know if it’ll be Glover’s grappling or Hill’s striking coming out on top, and Vegas expects it to before decision. I’d want at least three of these fighters.

h3budda: Two five-round fights offer more stacking. Start by stacking the flyweights, as you will be locking a lot of striking points, and they are dead heat in the middle pricing. Both guys have the ability to score 8-10x over five rounds. Don’t overthink the flyweight stack. The light heavyweight fight is difficult to stack, because one fighter may score zero and the other a high score. It’s hard to ignore the age difference and upside potential for Hill.

What is the fight you are most likely to avoid and why?

eys819: Stamann/Lacerda – Stamann is a sizeable favorite expected by Vegas to win over 75% of the time, but I have concerns about the ceiling with him only +275 to +300 to win inside the distance. Lacerda is making his debut and does not have much win equity, although if he is able to pull the huge upset, he does come at a very attractive price.

Moneyball16: Stamann/Lacerda – This is easily the fight most likely to go to a decision, which is a big problem on a 15-fight slate where we should see some huge scores. It is going to be really hard for Stamann to pay off his price.

h3budda: Andrade/Murphy – This fight is more about a price play than anything. Andrade is a very aggressive fighter and fighting at home. I think that Murphy will have the ability to hang in there and limit the finish upside. This means Andrade would bust at her price.

Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

eys819: Hill – He is a favorite to win inside the distance at a mid-range price tag. Hill is the far more athletic and powerful fighter at this stage of their respective careers, but he needs to avoid the ground with the far more experienced Teixeira. If Hill is able to do that, he should be able to secure the KO and smash value at his price.

Moneyball16: McKinney – On a 15 fight slate, the name of the game is upside. A solid win isn’t gonna cut it. McKinney is the ultimate boom or bust upside play because according to the betting markets, around 2.3 of his wins are expected to come in the first round.

h3budda: Moreno – It’s hard to ignore the small ML value on him and five rounds to work with. His work rate is very high, and his opponent requires slow-paced striking. He should win this fight over five rounds and has constant fantasy upside.