UFC 285 Betting Preview And Picks: Jon Jones Vs Ciryl Gane

Saturday’s UFC 285 event in Las Vegas comes with two title fights. The UFC Heavyweight Championship is up for grabs when Ciryl Gane welcomes back the GOAT, Jon "Bones" Jones in the main event. And in the co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko looks to continue her reign of the flyweight division, as Alexa Grasso challenges the bullet for the Flyweight Championship.

Five early prelim bouts begin at 6:15 p.m. ET / 3:15 p.m. PT from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas with four preliminaries kicking off at 5 p.m. PT. Finally, at 10 p.m. ET and 7 p.m. PT, the two-title bout main card drops in Las Vegas.

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A look at the two big bouts odds on FanDuel Sportsbook shows a more competitive fight that might be expected in the Heavyweight Championship.

• Jon Jones (-168) vs Ciryl Gane (+142)

Method of Victory

• Jones by Points (+200) - Jones by KO/TKO (+390), Submission (+550)
• Gane by Points (+320) - Gane by KO/TKO (+500), Submission (+1300)

At BetMGM, Jones has attracted 70% of the bets and 87% of the money (handle)

• Valentino Shevchenko (-770) vs Alexa Grasso (+540)

The fight between Grasso and huge favorite Shevchenko is nearly split 52/48% money with Grasso taking 75% of the bets.

Here is fight insight from Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) sports betting contributors Lou Finocchiaro and Reed Kuhn:

Finocchiaro: I’ve long maintained that Jones is the most complete, lethal mixed martial artist to date when one considers aggression, size/length, athleticism, fight arsenal, and level of opponent faced.

Entering this fight, hesitation around the currently unranked Jones centers on his being away from competition for some three years, the fact that he’s now thirty-five years old as well the added weight he’s acquired to compete as a heavyweight.

Jones, a former championship Juco wrestler, will be an inch taller than Gane and will hold a three-inch reach advantage. He enters with a superior fighting pedigree, and he possesses a more complete fight arsenal founded in wrestling but completed with a black belt in Gaidojutsu and a purple belt in BJJ.

Jones is the complete fighter, but after three years away, with this added weight and against this formidable foe, what can we expect? How will Jones navigate in this new weight class if/when this fight goes into the championship rounds?

Gane, ranked number one in the heavyweight rankings has been quite active, climbing the heavyweight ranks the last three years while Jones has been away. A fighter with a kickboxing base, Gane is a unique specimen. He moves like a middleweight, yet he possesses the striking power of a heavyweight delivered with precision, speed, ferocity and intent.

Gane is relatively new to the UFC and combat sports overall. He relies on deft footwork, evasive defense and precision volume striking, often set up by the employment of damaging kicks which effectively maim opponents. From there, damaged foes become somewhat immobile, which allows the nimble Gane to close in for the stoppage.

I firmly believe leg kicks will be foundational to Gane’s attack in this bout.

Pick: Jon Jones

Kuhn: It wasn’t long ago that we saw Ciryl Gane get outwrestled by former champion Francis Ngannou. And now, Jon Jones returns with dominant grappling performances through many years of facing top talent. But Jones has never faced a striker like Gane, who combines true heavyweight power with precise and technical striking.

Ignoring the complicated and massive layoff, and further questions about Jones jumping weight classes, it’s the type of matchup where I’d lean toward the wrestler. Even assuming Jones can’t outstrike Gane, Jones has proven he can frustrate his opposition and avoid big threats. If it’s the same Jones, that should include finicky striking at long range, then crafty takedowns from the clinch. If he gets the fight down, he’ll clearly win rounds and perhaps threaten submissions. But given all the uncertainty, this will be one of my smallest Jones plays ever.

Pick:Lean Jones (Moneyline)

Additional championship fight stats, insight and analysis from FiveThirtyEight for the Jones-Gane bout.

Kuhn: There’s no arguing with the performance metrics of Shevchenko. She looks every bit the dominant champion on paper as she does in the cage. One day, a challenger will come that’s just a little faster, younger, and less damaged, enough to dethrone the champ. And perhaps Grasso fits the profile, but even at such steep odds I don’t really expect her to win.

Grasso’s stats are solid. Her boxing has propelled her to victory standing up against decent opposition. Yet she’s fallen short against good grapplers, and that hints at Shevchenko’s best path to victory.

On the feet and on the mat, Grasso is competent enough to hang in there and stretch rounds. The same could be said for Shevchenko who, even in uphill losses against a superior striker like Amanda Nunes, still hung in for five full rounds. There’s no value in Shevchenko’s price, and if anything, there’s some small value if you can find an extreme Grasso return, but we can at least expect Grasso to put up a good fight and force the Over.

Pick: Over 3.5 rounds

The heavyweight fight so many fans have been waiting for has arrived in Las Vegas.