UFC 285: Prelim Picks and Predictions

Derek Brunson's always an upset threat, but Dricus Du Plessis has the goods to end him early. See why our UFC 285 picks for the prelim fights are tabbing a second-round finish — among other great bets!

UFC 285 features the return of Jon Jones as he faces his biggest challenge yet, facing off against Ciryl Gane for the heavyweight title. 

This figures to be one of the most impactful cards of the year, and it happens to be full of fights with tight UFC odds that could go either way. The preliminaries are no exception, and we’re featuring three of the best fights on the early card to boost your winnings this weekend.

Here are our free picks and predictions for the UFC 285 preliminaries on Saturday, March 4.

UFC 285 prelim picks and predictions

Ian Garry vs. Song Kenan
• Prediction: Garry ML (-730)
• Best Bet: Garry by decision (+275)

Derek Brunson vs Dricus Du Plessis
• Prediction: Du Plessis ML (-225)
• Best Bet: Du Plessis by KO/TKO/DQ in round 2 (+500)

Cody Garbrandt vs. Trevin Jones
• Prediction: Garbrandt ML (-175)
• Best Bet: Garbrandt by KO/TKO/DQ (+110)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

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Garry is winning fights, yet he seems so underwhelming. He’s a big favorite against Kenan and is a practical lock on the moneyline. The former Cage Warriors champion has put in two workmanlike decision wins after debuting with the UFC with a first-round KO. We expect Garry to put in another performance in line with his previous victories.

Kenan can get scrappy and has some power, but he’s outclassed in every measurable category. However, those spurts of offense might keep Garry honest, opting to slow the pace down with takedowns and potshots. That should take the fight into the later rounds, where we’ll likely see it go to the cards.

Garry shouldn’t lose this fight. We’re hoping that he doesn’t, but by decision, where we have a juicy +275 line.

Prediction: Garry moneyline (-730 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Garry by decision (+275 at DraftKings)

Many people see this middleweight fight as a trap fight for Du Plessis, and it’s easy to see why — Brunson is notorious for upsetting fighters on an upswing. However, we don’t see it that way. Du Plessis can neutralize Brunson’s groundwork and keep the fight standing, where his superior striking will carry him to victory.

There’s always the chance that Brunson closes the distance and gets inside Du Plessis, yet, his knack for exploiting fighters lacking ground defense won’t work and will get him marked up in short order. Should Du Plessis get too comfortable, he might find himself on his back, but he should be sharp enough to hold Brunson at bay during his early charges.

At this stage of his career, Brunson’s mobility and durability aren’t where they need to be against such a sharp foe on the upswing. Du Plessis should close Brunson up in the second round.

Prediction: Du Plessis moneyline (-225 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Du Plessis by KO/TKO/DQ in round 2 (+500 at DraftKings)

The most intriguing fight on the undercard is the match between skidding bantamweights Garbrandt and Jones. Since stunning Dominick Cruz back in 2016, Garbradnt has only won a single fight, and tried everything to recapture his old form. It’s increasingly clear that he can’t contend with top-tier fighters.

Enter Jones, who is on a three-fight losing streak and a late substitute for Julio Arce. Jones hasn’t looked good in any of his fights with the UFC thus far, and he’s been outlanded in four of his five fights for the promotion. He has a four-inch reach advantage but is overly conservative with his striking and possesses poor defensive instincts. 

Garbrandt has faded, but he isn’t spent to the point where he can’t win here. His boxing and wrestling should still be enough to get back in the win column. If he can protect his chin, he’ll get the win.

Whatever Garbrandt has left should be enough for a win, and we’ll also hedge our bets that he stops the overmatched Jones, too.

Prediction: Garbrandt moneyline (-175 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Garbrandt by KO/TKO/DQ (+110 at DraftKings)