UFC 287 main event pick and an MLB underdog: Best Picks for April 8
Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best pick (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread pick, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.
Here are our best picks for Saturday, April 8:
TOP PLAY
The play: UFC 287, Israel Adesanya over Alex Pereira
The odds/wager: -135 ($40.50 to win $30)
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Time/TV: Fifth fight of the main card, which starts at 10 p.m. (ESPN+ PPV)
Our take: We haven't delved much into mixed martial arts on these bets, but then, we've got to change our luck somehow, right?
This one follows a basic tenet of sports betting: If a line doesn't make sense, check it out. What you'll find here is that even though Adesanya is a slight favorite, he lost a November bout to Pereira, who also beat him twice years ago in kickboxing matches.
Now they meet for the UFC middleweight title in Miami, with Adesanya hoping to avenge that loss, which is just one of two in his UFC career.
Sometimes, certain fighters' styles just don't match up well with others, and that could be the case here. But the oddsmakers don't believe so, giving Adesanya an advantage, especially if the fight goes the distance. A nice hedge could be to take Pereira to win via knockout, particularly via live odds if he's losing the match midway through; Pereira has earned six of his seven UFC victories by knockout, while Adesanya is more likely to use a decision, as he has in eight of his 23 wins.
ASTROS BOUNCE BACK
The play: MLB money line, Astros over Twins
The odds/wager: +100 ($10 to win $10)
The book: FanDuel Sportsbook
Time/TV: 2:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
Our take: The Astros lost a tough one Friday night, 3-2 in 10 innings in the Twins' home opener. Actually, just over a week into the season, it's been a rough go for the defending World Series champions, as they're 3-5 and having trouble scoring runs, scoring 3 or fewer in four of their five losses.
This one could be tight, too, but we like Houston to bounce back against Twins starter Joe Ryan and behind their own underrated pitcher, Luis Garcia. You don't get the Astros as underdogs often, so let's see if we can cash in.
HOW WE’VE FARED
NBA money line parlay: Pelicans/Mavericks/Lakers to win (LOST $36)
MLB money line: Angels over Blue Jays (LOST $12)
Friday's profit/loss: -$48 (0-2)
Total for the week: -$72.40 (4-5, 1 pending)
Total for April: -$138.40 (5-8, 1 pending)
Total for 2023: -$171.50 (70-78, 1 pending)
If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the ticket. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to wager $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to wager $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)
Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).
