UFC 294 odds, predictions: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski headlines epic card

What a spectacular slate we have set up this weekend in Abu Dhabi as Islam Makhachev puts his lightweight title on the line once again versus the current featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. Plus, Kamaru Usman will step up on short notice to fight the destroyer Khamzat Chimaev. It should be an epic card.

I’m going to break down both those fights below, along with one of my favorite undercard bouts in Nathaniel Wood vs. Muhammad Naimov. If you want to chat about any other matchups on the slate, feel free to leave a comment below.

You can find breakdowns to all the fights on this slate on my site DailyFanMMABrettAppley

Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski

Two of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport collide once again on Saturday. Volkanovski will step up on short notice to face Makhachev. These two competed in February, and the result was far closer than many expected, with Makhachev barely edging out a five-round decision.

He’s one of the best wrestlers in the sport, undoubtedly, but was only able to hold Volkanovski down in two of those five rounds, leaving the other three to be largely contested on the feet. While Makhachev had success in that area too, Volkanovski outlanded him 70 to 57, and actually dropped him in the final round, landing ground-and-pound to put a statement on his performance.

In front of a raucous home crowd in Australia, many believed Volkanovski pulled off the upset, but it wasn’t meant to be. Instead, he’ll get his chance for revenge this Saturday in Abu Dhabi.

Heading into that first matchup, I did pick Makhachev to win and it was largely due to the fact that he’s the bigger fighter and the superior wrestler. Volkanovski is a skilled wrestler in his own right, but it doesn’t compare, and Makhachev had the large majority of upside in grappling exchanges.

It’s going to be one of the main reasons why I am picking him to win once again, though, I absolutely respect the defensive grappling of Volkanovski and was extremely impressed by his performance in the first bout.

Makhachev still landed four takedowns on nine attempts, and he turned two of those takedowns into back-takes, in which he held Volkanovski down for the remainder of the round. Now, on less than two week’s notice, having not put in another full camp for Makhachev, can Volkanovski’s defensive wrestling hold up once again?

I think to some degree it will, but Makhachev still proved he was the superior wrestler and his ability to transition to the back gives him considerable win equity in this matchup.

But if Volkanovski is able to keep the fight standing for large stretches of time, he can absolutely win. Not only did he outland Makhachev in the first fight, he hurt him multiple times and he attempted 120 more strikes than Makhachev.

I consider Volkanovski to be the superior technical striker, the more active striker, and likely the more durable fighter of the two. It gives Volkanovski win equity per round, by landing volume, and I think he also has some knockout equity as well.

However, Volkanovski only truly separated himself on the feet in one or two of those rounds. Makhachev landed some big shots as well, and had lots of success in the clinch. He proved he could hang tough with Volkanovski on the feet, and in theory it gives him multiple paths to victory that Volkanovski likely doesn’t have.

I do think the change in venue from Volkanovski’s home crowd in Australia to a crowd in the Middle East which will favor Makhachev is important.

My expectation is that we still get a somewhat competitive fight. Volkanovski has the skills to pull off the upset. It’s a tall task on short notice though, and ultimately, I have to still side with the superior wrestler.

Makhachev sits as a -250 favorite on BetMGM, which I think is a fair line and I don’t necessarily see value on either side. It’s not a spot where I’d consider parlaying the favorite, considering how competitive the first matchup was.

If anything, I’d lean toward the fight going the distance once again, which is a prop you can find as a near pick ’em across the industry. Betting Makhachev to win by decision in the +175 range could be a value as well, considering it’s arguably the most likely outcome of this matchup.

Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Former welterweight champion Usman will test the waters at middleweight on Saturday in another short notice opportunity against the ferocious and talented Chimaev.

Usman lost his title to Leon Edwards with a last-second head kick KO in 2022, and then lost the trilogy fight against Edwards by decision in March, leaving many to believe his best days are firmly behind him. He now sits as a shocking +225 underdog against Chimaev, who, to be fair, will carry the bigger frame for this weight class, had a full camp to train for and has largely decimated his UFC competition. Still, I can’t help but believe Usman is an extremely live underdog given his championship experience and skill set.

Chimaev is 6-0 in the UFC and four of his victories came in Round 1, with two of them finishing inside of one minute. Perhaps the most incredible stat of all, Chimaev actually only absorbed one total strike combined in five of his six wins.

While he’s been an impressive fighter to watch, most of those wins have come against very low-level competition, and he hasn’t faced much adversity. We only really have a one-fight sample in which Chimaev was tested, which came in his decision win over Gilbert Burns in 2022.

That fight was exciting, and back-and-forth, but I didn’t come away thinking Chimaev would be a dominant champion because of it.

The main reason why is because his opponent Burns is a world-champion submission grappler, and we have a large sample of fight history to suggest Burns isn’t an efficient striker. Burns only lands strikes at a career 48 percent rate, and he only lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute, which equates to 50 strikes landed per 15 minutes.

When Burns fought Usman, Usman disposed of him as you would expect. Burns only landed strikes at a 41 percent rate. He only landed 18 head strikes in 10 minutes, and Usman knocked him out in Round 3.

When Burns fought Chimaev, Burns became an efficiency master, landing strikes at an incredible 59 percent rate. He landed a whopping 89 head strikes on Chimaev in 15 minutes, and landed nearly 120 total significant strikes.

This isn’t a case of Burns suddenly learning how to strike between February of 2021 and April of 2022. Chimaev showed very questionable striking defense and allowed Burns to tee off at will.

Burns even hurt Chimaev in the second round, and arguably won that matchup over 15 minutes, though I had no problem with the decision either way.

Ultimately, I’m not convinced Chimaev is an elite technical striker. He’s powerful, he’s aggressive and he’s offensively potent for sure. But if Burns can have success like that, I do think it’s very much in the realm of possibility that others like Usman can as well.

Additionally, Chimaev has mostly had success on the mat with his grappling. He’s an elite wrestler and a very dangerous submission grappler, but Usman is a great wrestler too, and defends takedowns at 97 percent.

Of the two, I think Chimaev has more submission upside, but I’m not certain either even lands or attempts a takedown in this matchup. It seems very likely that these two stand and trade on the feet. Both can win that type of matchup.

Many question Usman’s durability at this stage of his career, but Usman has been through some five-round wars that Chimaev has not experienced. Even on short notice, up a weight class, and in enemy territory, I think Usman can win this fight. I wouldn’t label him a heavy favorite like I have in most matchups, but I don’t view this as an easy matchup for Chimaev by any stretch, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Usman fought very competitively or got his hand raised on Saturday.

I nabbed some Usman early in the week at +300, but I still think he’s a value at his current line of +260, and I think the betting line should be closer to a pick’em personally.

Nathaniel Wood vs. Muhammad Naimov

This is ine of my favorite fights on the undercard. It should be a fast-paced matchup.

Wood has long been a fan favorite due to his high-action style, and he’s almost never in a boring fight, win or lose. He lands strikes at a very high pace of 6.24 per minute, and he’s willing to wrestle a bit as well, landing 1.70 takedowns per 15 minutes.

It makes Wood a very tough out over three rounds, and the only man to beat him in a decision was Casey Kenney, who needed 123 significant strikes and two takedowns to get the job done.

The one concern I’ve always had with Wood is that because he’s so offensively potent, he will often leave himself vulnerable defensively. He’s been hurt several times both inside the UFC and prior to joining the promotion. He’s a tough guy though, and getting hurt doesn’t usually mean the end of the night.

Take his last fight against Andre Fili, for example. Fili knocked Wood down in the second round and jumped on top to try to get the finish. Wood survived, and still did enough in Rounds 1 and 3 to take a decision.

I’m hoping for a cleaner performance this weekend against the prospect Naimov, who is 1-0 in the UFC with a second-round knockout win against Jamie Mullarkey in his debut. Mullarkey had Naimov pressed against the cage, but ate a big right hand from Naimov that sent him to the canvas.

Personally, I didn’t have high expectations for Naimov when he came into the UFC, and I’m willing to bet on Wood being the first man in the UFC to beat him.

Naimov does have power, and that’s always a cause for concern against Wood, but I think Wood is a far more technical striker, and he should have the volume edge as well.

I’m also very concerned about Naimov’s defensive wrestling and grappling. In his DWCS fight, he was taken down a few times and simply didn’t react well once he hit the mat. His opponent was able to easily transition to mount, and I fear other wrestlers will take advantage of Naimov there too. Even Mullarkey landed three takedowns in the first eight minutes.

While Wood doesn’t always pursue the wrestling attack, he can shoot takedowns at times and recently landed five against Charles Jourdain. This would be a good spot for him to test Naimov on the mat.

Given his potential advantage on the ground, and his technical ability on the feet, I think Wood is a firm favorite in this matchup.

BetMGM has Wood lined as a -350 favorite, so he is expected to earn the win by the public. There are very few competitive fights this week, for what it’s worth, but Wood is someone who I feel relatively comfortable using as a parlay piece. I also have some hope that he can win inside the distance, which I’ve seen priced up to +185.