UFC 295 picks and odds: Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira best bet
The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden on Saturday and I've got two picks for the co-main and main event.
The pregame narrative: Jiri Prochazka defends his light heavyweight title against Alex Pereira, who earned his shot after beating Jan Blachowicz in July. I'm expecting a tightly-contested main event which should last past the second round and am also backing Tom Aspinall to beat Sergey Pavlovichi in the interim heavyweight title fight.
UFC oddsas of 1:02 a.m. ET on 11/10/23.
UFC 294 parlay picks
Best Bet: Aspinall to win (-122)
If you want fireworks, look no further. Aspinall and Pavlovich are two of the scariest men on the UFC's roster with a combined 25 knockouts in 35 fights.
Each of Pavlovich's past eight fights has ended in the first round (7-1) as have nine of Aspinall's past 10 (9-1). The over/under is set at 1.5 rounds and is heavily shaded (-210) towards the under. Basically, someone is getting put to sleep — and I don't think it's Aspinall.
The Englishman is 9-1 in his last 10 fights and his only loss came via doctor's stoppage after a freak knee injury against Curtis Blayes in 2022. It took him over a year to rehab from that but he rebounded with a first-round knockout against Marcin Tybura in July.
Aspinall lands a blistering 7.65 significant strikes per minute and his opponent puts forth an even better 8.72. But Pavlovich isn't as stout defensively, absorbing 4.33 sig. strikes per minute to Aspinall's 2.90.
The Russian also doesn't have a ground game. He has never recorded a takedown in the UFC — partly because he hasn't had to — while Aspinall lands an average of 3.7 per 15 minutes.
That's a huge advantage he should exploit.
Key stat: Aspinall recorded three wins via submission to pair with his 10 knockouts.
Other picks
Prochazka/Pereira to start Round 3 (-105): The two men fighting in the main event are no strangers to knockouts, either, but I'm expecting this one to last at least 10 minutes. Prochazka has 28 finishes in 33 fights and plenty of them have occurred in the first two rounds.
But Pereira is a very solid defensive striker and I don't expect him to go down easily. The Brazilian kickboxer-turned-UFC-champion beat Blachowicz via decision in his last fight after being knocked out in the dying seconds of round two against Israel Adesanya before that.
He absorbs just 3.7 significant strikes per minute and three of his six UFC fights have entered the third round.
As for Prochazka, it took him nearly the full 25 minutes to beat Glover Teixeira at UFC 275, as the veteran dominated ground control for most of the event. Pereira doesn't have that in his bag, but his length and experience as a kickboxer should give Prochazka something to think about when trying to score a KO.
