UFC 296 predictions, odds, best bets: Breaking down Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington and more

We are back for the final UFC event of the year, and it’s a great one — we’re set to see two championship fights in an action-packed card.

In the welterweight division, Leon Edwards and Colby Covington will square off for the belt, as will Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval in the flyweight division. I’ll break down both of those fights below, as well as one of my favorite undercard bouts.

If you want full breakdowns for every fight on the UFC 296 slate, we posted that and a two-hour podcast on my site DailyFanMMA. Feel free to check that out or reach me on Twitter/X at BrettAppley

Also, once again, thank you for the support this year! Have a happy holiday season, and enjoy the fights!

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington

The welterweight championship is back up for grabs as Leon Edwards will defend his belt against Colby Covington on Saturday.

Edwards has now won back-to-back fights against Kamaru Usman, a result I did not see coming. Usman was less than 60 seconds away from winning the rematch, and Edwards only managed a majority decision at home in London in the trilogy fight.

Still, I have to credit Edwards’ ability to neutralize Usman in that third fight, limit the striking and grappling exchanges, and point-fight his way to a victory at home. It was a good gameplan and it was well executed.

And while I have no choice but to consider Edwards among the best in the division, I still have trouble picking him with confidence, especially against an opponent who can produce offense at a higher rate, as Covington will.

Edwards still only lands 2.8 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.4 per minute, which is an extremely low rate. Most of his career success has come on the mat, where Edwards lands 1.26 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Against the upper echelon of this division, however. That offensive wrestling game won’t be very impactful. In three fights against Usman, for example, Edwards was only able to land one takedown, while he gave up 15 takedowns in return.

A lack of wrestling output and striking output puts Edwards in a tough conversation, to the point where he may need a miracle last-second head kick KO to win a championship or a complete neutralizing performance like we saw last time.

Edwards only landed 34 head strikes against Usman in London, absorbing 57 in return. He was taken down four times but could not land any takedowns himself. Ultimately, that win came because Edwards landed an additional 50 leg strikes, while he danced around the outside of the Octagon and avoided confrontation.

I’ll be curious to see whether Edwards can duplicate that result against Covington this weekend, who has him beaten in nearly every possible metric.

Covington lands 4.1 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.05 per minute. Covington lands 4.05 takedowns per 15 minutes. Even in terms of striking defense, Covington rates out better at 55 percent versus 53 percent for Edwards.

Technically, I do favor Edwards as a striker. He is simply the sharper kickboxer, which is his base.

And because Covington may rush into the pocket here, forcing exchanges, I could see Edwards landing a big shot. Covington was dropped four times by Usman, and even though he fought through adversity well, he can be hurt.

Edwards could also win in another neutralization performance, defending takedowns and scrambling free when necessary, making Covington uncomfortable at a distance and kicking him in the legs.

However, based on Covington’s history, my gut feeling is that he will fight super aggressively against Edwards, forcing him backward and wrestling at a high pace.

I’m unsure if Covington will get Edwards down easily — he probably will not — but he is excellent at grinding on opponents, mat-returning them and mixing in strikes in the clinch. Climbing on Edwards and forcing him to get up repeatedly will wear Edwards down and give Covington an advantage in rounds.

Usman did not do this. Maybe he was nervous or uncomfortable with burned-out knees. I expect Covington to pressure far more.

Even on the feet, Covington can compete based on pure volume. Remember, Edwards landed a TOTAL of 71 head strikes against Usman in three fights. Covington landed 103 head strikes against Usman in their first matchup, and 79 head strikes in the rematch.

Covington is better at producing offense, even at boxing range.

On BetMGM, Covington is the underdog at +130, which is a line I think has value, and he’s my preferred play in the matchup.

Granted, I don’t think he’s a guarantee to win. Edwards has multiple paths to victory, and early damage wouldn’t surprise me. I favor Covington to produce more offense and wrestle at a higher rate over 25 minutes, though.

I also think a decision win is the most likely result for Covington, a prop you can find at +210 or better across the industry.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval

We have a rare occurrence in the flyweight division, as neither Brandon Moreno nor Deiveson Figueiredo will be fighting for the championship. Instead, it’s newly crowned Alexandre Pantoja taking on the dangerous finisher Brandon Royval on Saturday.

Pantoja put on an excellent performance against Moreno in July, landing six takedowns and more than 120 significant strikes; it was a taxing war throughout.

And it was a performance we needed to see from Pantoja, who had previously slowed down in some big spots, like in his matchup against Figueiredo in 2019.

Another matchup where Pantoja looked to be tiring was in his first matchup against Brandon Royval in 2021, which Pantoja won by submission in the second round. He aggressively pursued the takedown in that fight and had some intense scrambles with Royval early on.

Ultimately, it ended with back takes and Pantoja locking in the RNC, but there were some shaky moments on the feet before the finish. Royval would not be held down easily, and his willingness to fight back caused Pantoja to use much energy early on.

That’s Royval’s style, though. He weaponizes his pace and pressure, and he tends to break opponents.

It’s led to five victories inside the distance for Royval in six total wins, and he’s coming off back-to-back first-round stoppages against Matheus Nicolau and Matt Schnell.

Royval isn’t a fighter who rates out super well on a per-round basis, so I tend to believe his victories will continue to come inside the distance. He lands 3.45 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 2.63. He lands only 0.66 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at a poor 39 percent.

One issue has been on the defensive end for Royval, as he gets hit hard and can’t defend takedowns. He will never quit and will continue fighting back, but Royval often climbs uphill, given his defensive lapses.

That was the case against Pantoja the first time, and I expect it to be the case again on Saturday.

Pantoja is the superior distance striker, and his volume is more consistent than Royval’s. Pantoja lands 4.41 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 3.81 per minute. He lands 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and is one of the better back-takers in the sport.

Royval doesn’t have enough physicality to prevent initial wrestling shots on him, so I expect Pantoja to succeed in that area again. It may take a few minutes of scrambling, but Pantoja will likely find the back again, which gives him both round-winning and submission upside in this matchup.

The best case for Royval is for him to survive some early exchanges, wear Pantoja down, and continue to pressure until Pantoja breaks. That outcome is possible.

BetMGM has Pantoja as the favorite, lined at -190, which I think is a fair number and arguably still a potential value given the matchup dynamic.

Royval has yet to eclipse 40 significant strikes in a fight, so it’s tough to favor him over a more experienced volume striker in Pantoja over 25 minutes. Pantoja also has the clear wrestling upside, and I think he will likely find a submission again at some point.

If I were backing Royval, I’d look closer at his ITD line, which you can find at +180 or better around the industry. I feel somewhat confident that Royval will find a finish if he gets his hand raised at all, though I have to back the more well-rounded, superior round winner in Pantoja to retain his title.

Casey O’Neill vs. Ariane Lipski

One of my favorite preliminary matchups, we should expect a high-action fight in the women’s flyweight division between Casey O’Neill and Ariane Lipski.

O’Neill is 9-1 professionally with a 4-1 record in the UFC, and she’s coming off a striking-based loss to veteran Jennifer Maia. Prior to that defeat, O’Neill carried a lot of hype, as she’d finished three of her past four opponents.

Although I do think there is some cause for concern regarding the current ceiling of O’Neill, I still hope her success in this division and this matchup against Lipski is one I think could be favorable.

Mostly, O’Neill is super aggressive in all areas of the game. She’s landing a whopping 8.77 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.90 per minute. She’s also averaging nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes.

Her real upside will come on the mat though, where O’Neill is aggressive in advancing position, and capable of landing lots of ground strikes. Her submission game is also formidable, and ultimately her pace on the canvas will break a lot of opponents.

The downside is twofold. One aspect relates to technicality: I don’t think we can call O’Neill an elite technician in any area. Her pure wrestling ability and distance striking game still need developing, so she may get shut down when she runs into more experienced opponents.

Despite dominating her first three opponents on the mat, O’Neill has only attempted three total takedowns in her two most recent fights, which spanned 30 minutes of cage time. That is a concern, and if she continues to ignore that part of her game, O’Neill won’t win fights at as high of a rate.

Her opponent on Saturday is a striker in Ariane Lipski, who is coming off two decent performances against Melissa Gatto and JJ Aldrich.

Before those wins, though, back in 2020-21, Lipski had a couple of awful performances, and she was finished on the mat in back-to-back fights against Montana De La Rosa and Antonina Shevchenko.

It was her lack of a get-up game that was the biggest issue. When taken down, Lipski had no answer, and easily gave up position.

Since then, she’s defended takedowns well. So part of this matchup comes down to how much faith we have in O’Neill to wrestle aggressively and how much faith we have that Lipski is truly improved.

I have mixed feelings, and wouldn’t be shocked by any result, but I will say that if O’Neill does get on top of Lipski, the fight could be over. O’Neill has clear finishing upside on the canvas, and I think that alone makes her deserving of being the favorite in this fight.

Should the fight take place purely on the feet, Lipski can win. She is likely the more technical striker here and potentially hits harder as well.

However, her distance striking metrics aren’t even that great. Lipski lands 5.6 sig. strikes per minute at distance, absorbing 5.1 O’Neill lands 11.9 per minute, absorbing 8.3.

While Lipski can win that fight, O’Neill is still so offensively potent that she will likely stay competitive in rounds. Even Gatto outlanded Lipski at distance 70 to 53.

I wouldn’t be as confident in O’Neill’s betting line if this fight takes place solely on the feet, but even then, I think O’Neill can compete and potentially win rounds on volume. Overall, I like her chances to get her hand raised this weekend.

On BetMGM, O’Neill is -190 to win, an implied win rate of 65.52 percent. While it’s potentially a fair line given the uncertainty in O’Neill’s wrestling, the fact that she has multiple paths to victory and a dominant path on the mat give her a high floor and ceiling win equity combination, and I don’t mind her as a play.