UFC 297 Gambling Preview: Is Sean Strickland here to stay as middleweight champion?
UFC 297 takes place on Saturday at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. Headlined by a middleweight title fight between Sean Strickland and Dricus du Plessis, the card also features a vacant women’s bantamweight title fight between Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva, as well as 10 other fights worth watching. Let’s take a look at the best bets available this weekend.
Straight Bets
Dricus du Plessis, -102
This is a razor-close fight, and if you think Strickland is going to win it, I can’t blame you. He’s much better than some people realize, and his strengths line up well against du Plessis. That being said, I still favor “DDP” to get the win on Saturday. I have a full breakdown of this fight that you can go read. But the short version is that while Strickland’s game lines up nicely against du Plessis, and the same can be said for du Plessis, but it’s DDP who is the better finisher. He’s also shown more of a bespoke approach to tactics, giving him the edge over Strickland in this fight.
I’m a bit surprised Movsar Evloev is this big of a favorite over Allen, especially given how bad he looked against Diego Lopes his previous time out. Evloev is a legitimate problem at 145 pounds, but so is Allen, and the style lines up decently well for him. Evloev really relies on getting his grappling going, and Allen is an excellent defensive wrestler. Furthermore, Evloev can be wild at times and leaves openings, and while Allen isn’t a huge finisher, he has the capability. There’s good value in Allen at this number in a fight that is much closer to a coin flip.
Prop Bets
Mayra Bueno Silva to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission, +130
This one may be wishful thinking, but I’m sticking with it. I have a lot of respect for Raquel Pennington and her abilities, but if she wins this fight, it will almost exclusively be by point-fighting to a decision. That’s just her M.O. “MBS,” on the other hand, has strung together a nice run of finishes that at least makes her a fun watch. Pennington is notoriously durable, but she’s getting older, and like I said, this is more about betting on the outcome we want versus the outcome that’s most likely.
Brad Katona To Win By Decision, +110
Death, taxes, and Brad Katona by decision. It’s the new “Katlyn Chookagian by Decision.” Katona’s last four wins have come courtesy of the judges (or the past six, if you count the two on The Ultimate Fighter) and nine of 14 career wins also. Katona simply does not finish people, even on the regional scene. Now, he’s back in the UFC and taking on a a good-but-not-great Garrett Armfield. I expect a classic Brad Katona showing here.
Parlay of the Week
Mike Malott, -355 + Jasmine Jasudavicius, -380
Y’all know there’s nothing I like more than a gimmick parlay, and in lieu of putting all the Canadian fighters on one mega-parlay this week (incidentally, that pays out at +4451 if you are interested), I’ve opted for the Niagara Top Team Parlay. Neil Magny is on the well-done side of cooked, and while Malott may not be a future champion, he’s probably a top-10 talent.
As for Jasudavicius, her inability to finish opponents is a major weakness, but this is a nice setup fight for her to get a big win on home soil. Priscila Cachoeira isn’t a good enough grappler to stave off Jasudavicius, and she probably loses the striking, too.
Parlay these two bets together for -164 odds.
Long Shot of the Week
Sean Strickland In Round 5, +2000
This is what we call a hedge. Yes, I’m picking and betting du Plessis to win the fight, but there is a clear path for Strickland to win, and I think it’s not just by decision. Strickland’s greatest weapon is his cardio, something that DDP has always been a bit suspect with. If Strickland survives the early rounds, he will likely begin to take over the fight in the third and fourth round, and if he’s putting that patented pressure on du Plessis, the South African fighter can only withstand so much. It’s very possible that if Strickland gets things moving early enough, he can score a late finish on an exhausted du Plessis, so +2000 is tempting.
Wrap Up
We were darn close to hitting the Long Shot last week. What a start to 2024 that would have been. Alas. On to the next!
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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