UFC 298 Best Bets

UFC 298 is taking place on Saturday from Anaheim, California, and the card is headlined by a featherweight title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria. Volkanovski is undefeated at featherweight in the UFC and has gone 6-0 in featherweight title fights.

Other notable fights on the card include a bantamweight contender bout between Merab Dvalishvili and former champion Henry Cejudo, along with a middleweight contender bout between Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa.

DraftKings is hosting a huge fantasy UFC 298 tournament that pays out $750,000 in total prizes, including $200,000 to first place. Enter the contest for only $25 here.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria

Volkanovski is coming off the only knockout loss of his UFC career, but it was a short-notice fight that was up a weight class against lightweight champion Islam Makhachev in a matchup that Volkanovski was largely unprepared for. Volkanovski admitted he was barely training before he got the call to take the fight vs. Makhachev on short notice, and said he was drinking frequently. This fight is at featherweight, a division that Volkanovski has dominated in the UFC, and Volkanovski has had ample time to prepare for this matchup against Ilia Topuria.

Volkanovski’s striking is elite, and it is supported by elite striking metrics. Volkanovski has the best striking differential in the history of the featherweight division, landing three more significant strikes per minute than his opponents. Volkanovski’s striking output is fueled by excellent volume, landing over six significant strikes per minute, a very high number. Volkanovski also ranks in the top three in the history of the featherweight division in significant strike accuracy, landing 57% of his significant strike attempts.

This matchup is interesting because of Ilia Topuria’s striking defense. Topuria is excellent at hiding his chin behind his lead shoulder and blocking strikes, and it shows up in his striking metrics. Topuria has avoided 67% of opponent significant strike attempts, the sixth-best rate among all active UFC fighters regardless of weight class and the third-best in the history of the featherweight division.

Volkanovski has been very durable at featherweight—his KO loss to Islam Makhachev was due to a combination of taking the fight on short notice along with fighting a much larger opponent in a higher weight division. Volkanovski’s major weakness is open-side head kicks, largely because he is shorter than most of his opponents at 5’6. Makhachev is a 5’10 southpaw, and his significantly longer legs allowed him to successfully land a power head kick on Volkanovski’s open side that many of Volkanovski’s opponents at featherweight haven’t been able to execute. Topuria is only an inch taller than Volkanovski and fights from an orthodox stance, which creates a different attack angle than the one Makhachev had.

The fact that Volkanovski is only slightly favored could create some value on Volkanovski. Volkanovski has dominated this division for years, and although he is coming off a KO loss, it was against a significantly different style of opponent than the one he will be facing at UFC 298. Volkanovski should also be coming in significantly more prepared than he was in his last fight. Topuria’s strong striking defense could make this fight a good candidate to not have a quick finish, and pairing the Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline with Over 1.5 Rounds in a Same Game Parlay (SGP) is a way to get plus-money action.

Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline

• Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline (3 Way)
• Over 1.5 Total Rounds

• Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline (vs. Ilia Topuria)
• Mackenzie Dern Moneyline (vs. Amanda Lemos)

Mackenzie Dern enters her fight against Amanda Lemos as the underdog, but this is a matchup that Dern could find success in. Lemos does not have strong takedown defense, stopping just 55% of opponent takedown attempts. In Lemos’ most recent fight against Zhang Weili, she was physically manhandled and taken down six times on seven attempts. Lemos’ subpar takedown defense could create an opportunity for Dern to successfully get this fight to the ground, where she can utilize her world-class jiu-jitsu and either finish Lemos on the mat or win a decision through takedowns and her top game.

Rinya Nakamura ($9,600) has displayed explosive fantasy scoring upside due to a blend of power striking and grappling volume. Nakamura is averaging over four takedowns per 15 minutes, a heavy rate, and has landed more than twice the amount of strikes he has absorbed. Defensively, Nakamura has good movement, which is reflected in his striking metrics. Nakamura has absorbed under two significant strikes per minute while avoiding 70% of opponent significant strike attempts, which is sparkling defensive metrics. Offensively, Nakamura is very athletic and powerful, and is capable of recording quick finishes, which was on display in his 33-second KO win over Toshiomi Kazama.

Nakamura enters his fight against Carlos Vera as a titanic favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, carrying a moneyline of about -1200. It is rare to see a fighter this heavily favored on a UFC PPV, and the lopsided odds create a very safe floor for Nakamura in a fight he is widely expected to win. Nakamura’s explosive power and ability to generate grappling volume also create big fantasy scoring upside.

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UFC 298: Volkanovski vs Topuria, live from Honda Center in Anaheim, California. Prelims start at 8pm ET/5pm PT, while the main card kicks off live on PPV at 10pm ET/7pm PT.