UFC Austin: Dariush vs Tsarukyan Odds, Prediction & Betting Tips
The first of two consecutive Fight Night cards before December's UFC 296 sees lightweight contenders Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan compete in the main event at the Moody Centre in Austin, Texas.
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In the promotion's fifth visit to Austin and first since June 2022 when Kattar and Emmett headlined, a pivotal lightweight crossroads fight takes centre stage. The Iranian Dariush is looking to bounce back from a devastating KO loss against Charles Oliveira which appears to have eliminated him from the title picture at this current moment. He'd previously been on an eight-fight winning streak, including scalps from Drew Dober, Tony Ferguson and Mateusz Gamrot, and is now hoping he can avoid consecutive losses for what would be the second time during his UFC career.
For Arman Tsarukyan, this weekend's main event offers a chance at being involved in the division's next title eliminator. The #8 ranked fighter fell to a unanimous decision against Mateusz Gamrot three fights ago, winning two straight bouts since then to see him matched up with a man four steads above him in the hierarchy. Having fought the current champion Islam Makhachev in his UFC debut, the Armenian will be desperate to get his shot at gold in a rematch, however, that road can only start to be paved with an impressive performance and finish in the early hours of Sunday morning.
UFC Fight Night Dariush vs Tsarukyan Tips
Three of the last four UFC main events have all ended inside three or fewer rounds, and we think the value lies with backing this outcome once again when Dariush and Tsarukyan meet.
The Iranian UFC vet, who made his debut almost a decade ago, didn't make it out of the first round against Charles Oliveira and showed the levels present in this stacked division. Tsarukyan's last fight also fell under this line, where his scrap with Joaquim Silva was put to an end in the third round. Both fighters have shown their frailties, with Silva buzzing Arman before ultimately being finished, giving plenty of support to the idea that a minor error or two could lead to a costly mistake by either one of them.
On paper, the pair's striking stats are almost identical, and when it comes to their grappling, Tsarukyan shoots more takedowns, while Dariush boasts an 80% takedown defence. This fight is one of the year's most difficult headliners to predict, especially since its implications are monumental for both, with Charles Oliveira the top contender and Justin Gaethje coming off the back of a knockout victory over Dustin Poirier providing quite the logjam at the summit of the division.
Tsarukyan's five-round grind vs Gamrot proved he could be one of few lightweights that can match Dariush's pace and wrestling, making this an extremely intriguing battle. Five of Dariush's six losses have come via stoppage, but he's also finished half of his last eight opponents. With so much on the line for both, it's difficult to look past an early finish to proceedings in the south this weekend.
For what is by all accounts a real 50/50 scrap without a standout A or B side, the odds favour siding with Beneil Dariush, who is a best price of 5/2 with SpreadEx at the time of writing. Although Arman Tsarukyan could be a real tough nut for Beneil to crack, the odds between the two are much wider than we anticipated.
At 34, it's now or never for Dariush to mount a final title challenge, and he can only do that by being unwilling to turn over his opportunity to the next generation of hungry fighters at 155lbs. Despite the ease and severity of that knockout loss to Oliveira, let's not forget just how impressive Dariush has been to get himself into that position in the first place. Following a draw sandwiched between two defeats spanning across March 2017 to March 2018, Beneil then went on a five-year, eight-fight winning streak, finishing half of his opponents before coming unstuck at UFC 289. And make no mistake, he was defeated by an elite fighter in "do Bronx" - the man with the most submission wins (16) most finishes (20) and most bonuses (19) in the organisation's history.
Beneil has proven he's just as capable on the ground as he is on the feet, splitting the difference of finishes by submission and KO/TKO across his last four stoppages, as well as in his entire UFC career (6 subs and 6 KO/TKO victories). He's had 22 fights with the UFC and has won 16 of them, at the same time proving he's able to go the distance and wage war with some extremely talented fighters, like in his last two unanimous decision wins over Ferguson and Gamrot.
Dariush is, in our minds, in a better position to dictate where this fight occurs. Considering that Tsarukyan has three wins by stoppage on the feet and zero on the mat, the Iranian will be comfortable exchanging wherever he wants. If their striking games and wrestling abilties are near identical, then it pays to side with the more experienced fighter, whose odds are much larger than maybe they should be. Tsarukyan has not fought the same volume of high-level opponents that Dariush has, yet he sits at 7-2 in the UFC. Of course, styles make fights, but looking at how Gamrot was given the nod over Arman before then being convincingly defeated by Dariush in his next fight, we fancy the 34-year-old to remind the world that he can still rock it at the top of this division.
