UFC Austin odds: Sean Brady a slight favorite over Kelvin Gastelum

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) has several fights in Austin, Texas this weekend headlined by Beneil Dariush (22-5-1) and Arman Tsarukyan (20-3) facing off on the main card. One of the other bouts features Philly-based fighter Sean Brady, who trains at a Frankford gym, which at one point last year had four undefeated mixed martial arts fighters.

Brady, 15-1 in his four-year UFC career, will face Kelvin Gastelum in what will be Brady’s first bout in more than a year, after he lost to Belal Muhammad in October 2022. In his last two scheduled fights, one in March against Michel Pereira and another at UFC 290 in July against Jack Della Maddalena, Brady was forced to withdraw due to separate injuries.

Gastelum has an 18-8 record, winning his last bout in April against Chris Curtis in a three-round decision in Gastelum’s first fight since 2021. For the first time in seven years, the 32-year-old will return to the 170-pound welterweight division after previously fighting at 185.

Here’s a look at the odds when these two fighters meet inside the octagon in Austin’s Moody Center Saturday night.

1. Fight result: Brady to win: -120; Gastelum to win: +100

2. Winner by round betting:

1. Brady in Round 1: +450; Round 2: +700; Round 3: +1100

2. Gastelum in Round 1: +500; Round 2: +800; Round 3: +1200

3. Method of winning (7-way)

1. Brady by KO/TKO/DQ: +650; Brady by submission: +300; Brady by decision: +275

2. Gastelum by KO/TKO/DQ: +275; Gastelum by submission: +1400; Gastelum by decision: +275

3. Tie/technical tie: +5000

While Brady is a slight favorite to win the match overall, his lowest odds are winning by a three-round decision (+275) or winning by submission (+300) at BetMGM. That’s because all four of his UFC wins have come by way of unanimous decisions or by submission. His lone loss came by way of KO/TKO last year.

Gastelum won two of his matches by KO/TKO at 170 pounds earlier in his career. Over his last four fights though, each have gone the distance, with Gastelum finishing with a 2-2 record in that stretch.

If this bout does end in a decision, oddsmakers see it as a toss up, with each fighter trading at +275 to win by decision.