UFC betting tips: Preview and best bets for UFC 290
MMA betting tips: UFC 290
2pts Alexander Volkanovski to Win by Submission or Decision at 20/21 (bet365)
2pts Robert Whittaker to Win by Decision at 39/20 (Unibet)
1pt Robbie Lawler to Win by TKO/KO or Submission at 5/1 (bet365)
Aussie Rules
ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI came incredibly close to achieving double-champion status earlier this year when his 25 minute showdown with Islam Makhachev went right down to the wire. Given the Australian was stepping up in weight against arguably the most dominant and feared fighter in MMA today, it seems to many that his stock has actually risen despite that loss.
The 145lbs champion returns to defend his title this weekend, against the interim champion who was crowned in his absence, Yair Rodriguez. The Mexican fighter has been a prospect to look out for for many years now, and has showcased some of the most exciting and unorthodox striking we have ever seen in the UFC. In my opinion, his knockout of Chan Sung Jung remains the best finish in UFC history (well worth a watch if you’ve never seen it!)
There has long been a narrative in the UFC’s Featherweight division that both Volkanovski and Max Holloway are a cut above the rest, and that the latter’s unofficial role within the division these days is to filter out the prospects who are unworthy of challenging for the title. In November 2021, Holloway faced Rodriguez in a 25-minute main event and came away with a hard-earned victory. Despite the loss, no fighter aside from Volkanovski has managed to compete so fiercely with Featherweight Holloway since Conor McGregor in 2013.
Although that performance highlighted that Rodriguez is ready and worthy of the title shot against Volkanovski, it also demonstrated some stylistic issues that are very likely to significantly hamper the Mexican’s chances of winning on Saturday night. Holloway has always been seen as an elite striker, but was able to have an astounding amount of grappling success in that fight, giving credence to a wider narrative that Rodriguez’s skillset in bottom position on the mat is lacking. Long term fans of the sport may remember the Mexican’s 2017 loss at the hands of Frankie Edgar, which followed a similar trend of grappling dominance.
Volkanovski is potentially the most well-rounded fighter in the UFC today, and should be able to win rounds wherever the fight takes place. His ability to dissect his opponents mid-fight, as well as execute a pre-conceived gameplan, should see him eventually utilise takedowns to negate Rodriguez’s unpredictable striking and nullify his opponent. From there, Volkanovski’s superiority should shine through, whether the potential for an uncharacteristic submission victory could present itself.
Aside from that, Volkanovski is always a reliable fighter to win on the scorecards, as eight of his 12 UFC victories have demonstrated. Backing Alexander Volkanovski to Win by Submission or Decision at 20/21 is therefore a great way to downsize a 1/4 favourite into more appealing odds.
Don’t Fear the Reaper
At this stage in his career, ROBERT WHITTAKER probably deserves to be on the podium when ranking the best UFC Middleweights of all time. A former champion of the division with the joint-most performance bonuses in 185lbs history, Whittaker has continued to operate at an elite level even after being dethroned by current champion Israel Adesanya. The Reaper has competed against almost every notable name in the division’s modern history in his 19 fight UFC stint, and is still as motivated as ever to maintain his place as the division’s right hand man (very similarly to the aforementioned Featherweight dynamic between Holloway and Volkanovski).
The latest of these up-and-coming challengers is South Africa’s Dricus Du Plessis, who has made a name for himself with recent stoppage victories over the likes of Derek Brunson and Darren Till. Despite looking relatively dominant in those fights, the general consensus is that Stillknocks is yet to truly prove he has what it takes to be a commanding force in the Middleweight title picture. Despite du Plessis’ controversial efforts in antagonising Adesanya, the UFC have given the South African the chance to earn his title shot with a win over the division’s gatekeeper in Whittaker.
The Reaper opened as a 1/4 favourite in the betting, with very little objection from UFC fans. Whittaker should simply be too well-rounded and experienced to fall into the trap of being outmuscled by the explosive and powerful du Plessis. Whittaker has made a career out of being the more elusive and faster striker compared to many of his hard hitting opponents, and his durability has mostly held up whenever he has found himself in trouble. Should du Plessis fail to find a finish, this fight should ultimately look one-sided by the end.
In many instances in MMA, the more dominant a fighter is expected to be, the higher the perceived chances that they find a finish along the way. Whilst there are fair examples of this earlier in the card in the cases of Bo Nickal, Jack Della Maddalena and Tatsuro Taira, Whittaker has always demonstrated his dominance with a mature and calculated approach that prioritises being risk averse. The Reaper has been fighting at the division’s highest level for six years now, and has been the distance in seven of his last eight bouts (with the sole outlier being his stoppage loss to Adesanya).
It was therefore surprising to see that oddsmakers expect this fight to finish inside the distance, deeming Whittaker more likely to win via TKO/KO than on the judges’ scorecards. Given that du Plessis’ reputation as a one-punch knockout artist should prompt his Australian opponent to fight more cautiously, I think a great opportunity has presented itself to back Whittaker to Win by Decision at a very appealing price of 39/20.
Lawler and Order
After a 45 fight career that began in 2001, ROBBIE LAWLER is expected to retire from MMA after Saturday night’s bout with Niko Price. Having captured the UFC Welterweight title in 2014 and winning back-to-back Fighter of the Year accolades, the now 41-year-old Lawler has seen a distinct decline in performance in recent years. Despite always fighting with tenacity, resilience and a warrior’s spirit, Ruthless has lost five of his six most recent bouts, against a declining calibre of opposition each time.
When looking beyond the surface though, Lawler is still very much the same fighter that clawed his way to the summit of the sport, with his scrappy and hard-hitting style still very much befitting someone with the nickname Ruthless. The style of opponents that he has been booked against in his declining years have also been unfavourable, as many of them have taken a grappling based approach and have actively looked to avoid entering into a brawl with the Welterweight legend.
Lawler finally got the fight he was looking for in his most recent loss to Bryan Barberena and, despite ultimately suffering a knockout, he was still very much in the fight. Lawler landed a multitude of clean shots throughout the contest that could easily have hurt and finished an opponent with less durability, but Barberena’s seemingly granite chin has always been very difficult to crack. Against Price this weekend, Lawler gets the best opportunity he could possibly ask for to end his career in vintage Ruthless fashion.
Price may be eight years younger and have only competed in half as many bouts as Lawler, but there is a fair argument to be made that The Hybrid is on somewhat of a rapid decline himself. Having suffered four knockout losses across his last nine fights, Price’s defensive negligence can no longer be disguised behind impressive durability. Simply put, if Price was to absorb some of the strikes that Barberena took against Lawler last year, I would certainly expect him to be finished.
Given that the oddsmakers have graded the younger Price as a steeper favourite than he should justifiably be, it has presented the opportunity for much bigger and appealing odds on Robbie Lawler to Win by TKO/KO or Submission at 5/1. Lawler’s style makes it difficult for me to ever see him winning a decision on the scorecards, so backing him to win inside the distance provides much better odds than his outright selection.
Posted at 1610 BST on 05/07/23
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