UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Pyfer Odds, Picks & Predictions

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08 February 2024

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Pyfer Odds, Picks & Predictions

Joe Pyfer enters Saturday's UFC Fight Night main event on the back of five consecutive wins by stoppage. Find out why we expect the rising middleweight grappler to stay hot by reading our Hermansson vs. Pyfer betting picks.

Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday.

It's rare to see an unranked fighter headline a main event, but Pyfer is a rising star and this will be his first real test as he takes on the No. 11 ranked middleweight contender in Hermansson. UFC odds opened with Pyfer as a -200 favorite and money has come in on the younger fighter, shifting his line to -270 while Hermansson comes back as a +215 underdog.

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer picks and predictions for February 10 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Jack Hermansson vs Joe Pyfer fight odds

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Hermansson vs Pyfer picks

Fight prediction: Pyfer ML

This is a big step up in competition for Pyfer, and there's got to be some concern that he could be fraud-checked by a well-rounded veteran like Hermansson who has experience in five-round main events.

That said, Hermansson has struggled against more athletic fighters like Pyfer, and the younger fighter has a big advantage in speed and power. When Hermansson isn't able to implement his grappling early, he gets drawn into extended striking exchanges, which is going to be a big problem against the heavy-handed Pyfer.

At 35 years old, Hermansson is on the downslope of his career and he doesn't have the physical attributes to hang with Pyfer here.

Prediction: Pyfer moneyline (-270 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Pyfer inside the distance

Pyfer is a finisher and his last 10 wins (including all four of his victories in the octagon) have come by stoppage inside of the first two rounds. He has devastating power in his mitts, resulting in knockout victories against Gerald Meerschaert, Alen Amedovski, and Osman Diaz. However, Pyfer also possesses dangerous grappling ability, as demonstrated in his last fight when he put Abdul Razak Alhassan to sleep with an arm triangle choke.

Keep in mind that not only did Pyfer starch a UFC veteran in Meerschaert in the first round last April, but he also defeated Meerschaert in a professional grappling competition the following month. That well-rounded skillset gives him the ability to win by knockout or submission against a basic kickboxer like Hermansson.

While Hermansson is a durable fighter, he's taken a lot of punishment over the last few years and has been finished four times in his UFC career. Expect a similar result again on Saturday.

Pick: Pyfer by KO/TKO or submission (-160 at Bet99)

Hermansson vs Pyfer betting preview

Jack Hermansson hasn't fought since losing to Roman Dolidze by TKO in December of 2022. Hermansson was picking apart Dolidze at range but was caught in a calf slicer leg lock and defeated via ground and pound.

Hermansson has compiled a 10-6 record in the UFC but has alternated wins and losses over his last eight fights. He picked up wins against Chris Curtis, Edmen Shahbazyan, and Kelvin Gastelum during that span along with a competitive split decision loss to former champ Sean Strickland, but he was also knocked out by Jared Cannonier and Dolidze while losing a lopsided decision to Marvin Vettori.

The Swede is a well-rounded fighter who combines excellent BJJ ability with crafty kickboxing.

Joe "Bodybagz" Pyfer is the former Ring of Combat middleweight champion, but his career hit a snag when he lost to Dustin Stoltzfus on Dana White's Contender series in 2020 after suffering a gruesome arm injury while getting taken down.

Since that defeat Pyfer has been on a roll, winning five straight fights by stoppage inside of eight minutes. In his previous bout last July, he submitted Abdul Razak Alhassan to earn his second Performance of the Night bonus. The 27-year-old is an explosive striker with dynamite in his hands and strong grappling ability.