UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs Barboza Odds, Picks & Predictions

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12 October 2023

UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs Barboza Odds, Picks & Predictions

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Edson Barboza was recently upgraded to a five-round main event bout for the upcoming UFC Fight Night card. With Yusuff having never fought a five-round bout before, our UFC picks are looking at Barboza to pull off the upset.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Edson Barboza is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on October 14 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

This should be a fun fight between a pair of Top 15 featherweights who love to stand and strike. UFC odds opened with Yusuff as a -166 favorite with Barboza coming back at +140.

Does the 37-year-old Barboza have enough left in the tank to pick up another victory or is it the younger fighter’s time to shine? I let you know with my best free UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza picks and predictions for October 14.

Yusuff vs Barboza fight odds

Yusuff vs Barboza method of victory odds

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Yusuff vs Barboza picks

Fight prediction: Barboza

Both of these guys are capable grapplers but striking is their bread and butter, so expect this bout to stay standing up. While Sodiq Yusuff has great boxing and power in his shots, he has a tendency to get cracked in the pocket. Edson Barboza also has very good hands and is just as capable at close range: He'll have a significant advantage on the outside due to his four-inch reach advantage and elite kicking ability.

Besides his superiority at range, I'm leaning towards Barboza for two other factors: health and cardio. Yusuff hasn't fought since last October after he herniated two discs in his back. That kept him out of training for half a year, and if that injury has sapped any of his athleticism, it'll be tough for him to look the same.

It's also worth mentioning this fight was elevated from a three-round bout to a five-round main event just a month ago. Yusuff has never trained for a five-round fight before and he has struggled in that past with maintaining a high pace for even 15 minutes. While Barboza has gone past three rounds just once in his career, he has been in several headline events so he has previously trained for 25-minute wars and knows how to conserve his energy.

Prediction: Barboza moneyline (+140 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Barboza moneyline

If it wasn't for his age, Barboza would probably be the favorite in this spot. However, we saw him fight just six months ago and he looked great when he knocked out Billy Quarantillo as a slim +125 underdog.

Sure, he's just 3-5 in his last eight fights... but two of those defeats were close split decisions, another came against elite lightweight Justin Gaethje at 155 pounds, and his most recent losses came against Giga Chikadze and Bryce Mitchell.

Mitchell used his high-end grappling to maul Barboza on the ground but Yusuff doesn't have the wrestling to exploit that vulnerability while Chikadze used his elite kicking to outstrike Barboza at range — another area where Yusuff lacks the requisite skill.

With the exception of that loss to Allen, Yusuff hasn't faced the level of competition that Barboza has. His most recent victory came as a -900 favorite against a guy making his promotional debut and that was 12 months ago. Prior to that, he was outstruck in a bout against Alex Caceres and he also had a recent close win against Andre Fili.

Matter of fact, Caceres had a whopping 43-18 advantage when it came to significant strikes to the head and Yusuff won because he managed to land 34 leg kicks. Good luck with having success in the leg kick department against a former Muay Thai pro in Barboza who excels in that area. Give me the more tested underdog at these odds.

Pick: Barboza moneyline (+140 at DraftKings)

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Yusuff vs Barboza betting preview

Sodiq Yusuff is the No. 11 ranked featherweight contender but hasn't been in a bout since submitting Don Shainis in 30 seconds a year ago. Yusuff has gone 7-1 in the octagon with his only defeat coming in a close decision against current No. 4 featherweight Arnold Allen in 2021.

Yusuff is big for the featherweight division but he won't have his usual size advantage against Barboza who spent much of his career at lightweight. The 30-year-old is a sharp striker with plenty of power and crisp boxing ability.

Edson Barboza is two spots behind Yusuff in the rankings and he's fresh off a first-round knockout win against Billy Quarantillo in April which earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.

That finish also snapped a two-fight slide for the 37-year-old who had previously lost lopsided fights against Bryce Mitchell and Giga Chikadze. Barboza made his UFC debut all the way back in 2010 and has earned a 17-11 record in the promotion.

With a background in Muay Thai, Barboza is a high-end striker who utilizes devastating kicks to every level.