UFC Mexico City main card predictions: Predicting who will win each fight, odds, picks
UFC Fight Night returns to Mexico City live from the CDMX Arena this Saturday, February 24. The prelims are scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET followed by the main card getting going at 10 p.m. ET. ESPN+ will have coverage of both cards.
A pair of top-five featherweights, #3 Yair Rodriguez and #4 Brian Ortega face off in the co-main event. The main event will feature a rematch between two flyweights as #1 Brandon Moreno takes on #3 Brandon Royval.
DraftKings Sportsbook. Royval is betting at +235. The favored method of victory is Moreno to win by decision (+140).
Let’s break down the main card and make some predictions for the main card of UFC Mexico City.
UFC Mexico City predictions
Manuel Torres (-192) vs. Chris Duncan (+160)
These lightweights come in with three combined losses, as Torres has won five straight by first-round stoppage while Duncan has won his last two at the UFC level. Torres is a buzzsaw who presents plenty of offensive firepower, he mixes in leg kicks and strikes at a good rate. Duncan is very poised in the octagon and earned a contract after an impressive Contender Series showing.
Prediction: Torres to win by KO or Decision (-135)
Yazmin Jauregui (-550) vs. Sam Hughes (+410)
Jauregui is coming off her first career loss to Denise Gomes at UFC 290, prior to that she was 10-0. Hughes has won three of her last four after a brutal 0-3 start to her UFC tenure. Jauregui likely uses this as a bounce-back opportunity and goes for the knockout.
Prediction: Jauregui by KO (+200)
Raul Rosas Jr. (-218) vs. Ricky Turcios (+180)
Rosas Jr. makes his third appearance in the octagon, as “El Nino Problema” defeated Terrence Mitchell by way of first-round TKO last September. The 19-year-old will be fighting in front of a hometown crowd for the first time in his young career. Turcios returns after a year off, in his last fight he prevailed over Kevin Natividad by split decision. This one will be full of action as both fighters like to mix it up and keep the opposition on their heels.
Prediction: Rosas Jr. by Submission (+200)
Daniel Zellhuber (-270) vs. Francisco Prado (+220)
Two contrasting styles as Zellhuber is a very calculated fighter who can dictate pace well. He defeated Christos Giagos by way of second-round submission in his last fight. Prado is a lethal power striker who likes to apply pressure early and often. He scored a first-round TKO win over Ottman Azaitar last July. Zellhuber is the taller fighter and has a better reach, I see him out-maneuvering Prado toward a win.
Prediction: Zellhuber to win by Submission or Decision (-105)
Yair Rodriguez (-155) vs. Brian Ortega (+130)
A rematch from July 2022, when Ortega lost by TKO due to a shoulder injury. A lot has changed since that fight as Rodriguez ultimately earned his title shot, but lost to former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. Before being sidelined Ortega was on a bit of a decline, it’s unknown how he’ll respond after such time away.
Prediction: Rodriguez by decision (+250)
Brandon Moreno (-290) vs. Brandon Royval (+235)
Moreno and Royval know what’s at stake here, as a win would nearly guarantee a title opportunity against Alexander Pantoja in the near future. They both fell short to Pantoja in their respective title chances last year. Royval has a chance at redemption but I simply think Moreno has him beat in all aspects. While this may be more of a contested fight compared to the first-round finish last time. I like Moreno to seal the deal by utilizing his grappling ability.
