UFC Vegas 80: Dawson vs Green Preliminary Card Predictions & Picks

bettingnews.com

06 October 2023

UFC Vegas 80: Dawson vs Green Preliminary Card Predictions & Picks

Another exciting night of MMA action at the Apex is on the horizon as UFC Vegas 80 invades Las Vegas on Saturday, Oct. 7. While the main card is ripe with betting options, the preliminary card also presents a variety of opportunities to win some scratch.

There’s a lot to keep track of when it comes to the early betting action, but Betting News has you covered. Continue reading for the UFC Vegas 80 preliminary odds and my betting picks ahead of this weekend’s six early fights.

UFC Vegas 80 Preliminary Card Predictions & Odds

The UFC Vegas 80 odds listed below are as of Friday, Oct. 6 at 9:58 p.m.

Philipe Lins (+125) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-150) — Light Heavyweight

Philipe Lins (17-5) is on a roll as of late, winning three consecutive fights ahead of UFC Vegas 80. Ion Cutelaba (17-9-1, 1NC) is coming off a first-round TKO victory over Tanner Boser that saw the former end a three-fight losing streak.

Even though Cutelaba is the favorite, I’m going with Lins this weekend. “Monstro” is 3-0 since returning to the light heavyweight division, picking up two wins via unanimous decision and one victory via TKO.

Could Cutelaba end this fight early due to his power? Yes, but I trust Lins’ defense here. He’ll do a good job at withstanding his opponent’s barrage before emerging victorious in a close-fought scrap.

Lins vs. Cutelaba Prediction: Lins Outright (+125)

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-150) vs. Diana Belbita (+127) — Women’s Strawweight

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (15-7) hopes to keep her momentum going this weekend as she searches for her fourth consecutive victory. Standing in her way is Diana Belbita (15-7), who’s coming off a unanimous decision win over Maria Oliveira at UFC 289.

BetOnline is favoring this fight to go the distance (-350) at UFC Vegas 80 and if that’s the case, I like Kowalkiewicz just a bit more. She has a 73.3% success rate when her fights go the distance, whereas Belbita sits at 62.5% in that regard.

Kowalkiewicz is great at getting her opponents off their feet and I expect her to do the same to Belbita before wearing her down long enough to win. We’ll stick with an outright bet here, but feel free to go after a submission win considering that Belbita has been submitted four times before.

Kowalkiewicz vs. Belbita Prediction: Kowalkiewicz Outright (-150) or via Submission (+600)

Aoriqileng (-109) vs. Johnny Munoz Jr. (-110) — Bantamweight

Aoriqileng (24-10) is out to reverse his fortunes after suffering a knockout loss to Aiemann Zahabi back in June. Johnny Munoz Jr. (12-3) can relate as his most recent outing saw him fall to Daniel Santos via unanimous decision.

In a fight that BetOnline sees going either way, I’m backing Aoriqileng. On top of having two victories in his last three fights, he also lands more significant strikes per minute (6.04 vs. 3.00) with better accuracy (49% vs. 38%). He also has better takedown numbers when it comes to accuracy and defense.

Having said that, if you aren’t feeling confident in either fighter, I recommend backing this fight to go the distance. Aoriqileng has gone the distance 13 times in his last 19 fights while four of Munoz’s last seven bouts reached the time limit.

Aoriqileng vs. Munoz Prediction: Aoriqileng Outright (-109) or Fight Goes the Distance (+120)

Bovada Crypto Sports Welcome Bonus

Before we get to the rest of the UFC Vegas 80 preliminary card preview, let’s take a minute to check out an exciting promotion on Bovada for crypto users.

If you use the code ‘BTCSWB750’ when making your first despite using crypto (Bitcoin, USDT, etc.), you’ll receive a 75% sports welcome bonus of up to $750. That means if you make a $100 deposit, you’ll receive a $75 bonus back!

Again, all you have to do is enter ‘BTCSWB750’ when making the first deposit to your account to take advantage of this bonus.

If you don’t have a Bovada account, signing up is simple. and you’ll be wagering in no time.

Now, back to the octagon…

Kanako Murata (-325) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (+255) — Women’s Strawweight

Kanako Murata (12-2) makes her return at UFC Vegas 80 following a two-year absence. Her opponent in her return is none other than Vanessa Demopoulos (9-5), who saw her winning streak come to an end with a UD loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz almost five months ago.

Murata may have been on the shelf for two years, but she’s only 30 years old and shouldn’t have an issue bouncing back. Her grappling skills are top-tier and she should be able to handle Demopoulos, who only boasts 50% takedown defense.

Having said that, I expect this fight to have a lot of wrestling that results in the round limit being reached. With that being said, take Murata to win via points.

Murata vs. Demopoulos Prediction: Murata via Points (-150)

Nate Maness (+200) vs. Mateus Mendonca (-250) — Flyweight

Luck has not been on Nate Maness’ (14-3) side lately, dropping back-to-back fights to Umar Nurmagomedov (via UD) and Tagir Ulanbekov (via submission). Meanwhile, Mateus Mendonca (10-1) just suffered his first career loss — a unanimous decision defeat against Javid Basharat.

While he struggled in his last outing, I’m confident that Mendonca can rebound at the Apex. Maness starts too slowly for my liking and it’s hard to have faith in him winning when he’s been out-hit 78-6 in his last two fights alone.

With three KO/TKO victories in his last seven fights, don’t be shocked if Mendonca knocks Maness out, too, if another slow start is involved.

Maness vs. Mendonca Prediction: Mendonca via KO/TKO (+125)

Montana De La Rosa (-150) vs. JJ Aldrich (+125) — Women’s Flyweight

Montana De La Rosa (12-8-1) searches for better results after being submitted by Tatiana Suarez back in February. JJ Aldrich (12-6), meanwhile, avoided a third straight loss by knocking Liang Na out at UFC Singapore.

I’m not a huge fan of either fighter at the moment, but I’ll go with Aldrich winning at UFC Vegas 80. She at least owns a respectable 4-2 record in her last six outings, whereas De La Rosa has gone 2-4-1 in her seven previous bouts.

Aldrich has some decent value at +125 on the moneyline, but feel free to take her winning by points if you want a slight boost. At the end of the day, finishes are rare for her, meaning a victory by some form of decision is more likely.