Ulster aren't as good as people think and Marcell Coetzee should take the money if it's on offer, claims Stephen Ferris

Stephen Ferris believes that Ulster's European defeats have been a huge wake-up call ahead of their return to Guinness PRO14 action when they travel to Connacht on Sunday.

And the former Ulster, Ireland and Lions flanker also reckons that the odds very much remain stacked against Dan McFarland's side finally ending their lengthy silverware drought this season by winning the PRO14.

"It's a bit of a reality check as to exactly where Ulster are," Ferris said after the back-to-back losses to Gloucester and Toulouse have effectively ended their interest in the Champions Cup.

He also is not convinced that Ulster's eye-catching form in the PRO14 - where they have won all eight games to sit top of Conference A and are already in a two-horse race with champions Leinster to ultimately top the group - is a fair indicator of what is to come as league opponents up to now have been heavily diluted by Test commitments.

"I don't believe Ulster are as good as people think, and I think the last two games have shown that," said TV pundit Ferris.

"You look at this Ulster side, unbeaten and everything going their way in the PRO14 and then to suffer two defeats in Europe, they could easily now be beaten at Connacht, then you've Munster at home and Leinster away," he added of the festive Irish derbies.

"If things don't go your way then that could be five losses in a row. This weekend is going to be a huge test."

Ferris added: "The last couple of games have shown that things can quickly turn around in professional sport."

Though by no means sounding alarm bells regarding a potential slump in Ulster's league form, Ferris feels that the province can only realistically aim at lifting the Guinness PRO14 title if they have their big hitters fully fit and firing.

"When Ulster miss one or two players, they are still better than an average side, but I don't think they're going to win trophies," said Ferris, who was part of the province's last title-winning team back in 2006 when they conquered the then Magners League.

"But that's where Dan has got to take this team, he's got to have his vision on winning a PRO14.

"He'll certainly think that he's got the side to be able to do that this season.

"But if there are one or two injuries, I certainly don't think they will be able to win a PRO14 this season," added the 2009 Grand Slam winner with Ireland.

Skipper Iain Henderson's injury woes are hugely damaging in that regard, while Ulster without Marcell Coetzee - who missed last weekend's European loss at Gloucester and left the field early against Toulouse - do not appear to operate at the same level.

With Henderson potentially out of contract at the end of this season and Coetzee rumoured to be being heavily courted over a move back to South Africa, even though his deal runs until 2022, Ferris does not sound confident that Ulster can hang on to their big names in these financially straightened times.

"With no fans for the foreseeable future, it's going to be very tough to pay guys big money going forward," said a concerned Ferris.

Referring specifically to Coetzee, Ferris added: "I think it's going to be extremely difficult to keep him.

"If I was Marcell Coetzee and had his talent, and the money he can potentially earn to set up his family, I think if the numbers don't add up at Ulster then I'd certainly be making the move."

Stephen Ferris will be bringing rugby supporters all the inside track and analysis when Ulster take on Connacht at the Sportsground in Galway, alongside Andrew Trimble and Bernard Jackman with presenter Graham Little, this Sunday, December 27, on Premier Sports 1 from 7pm