UMass-New Mexico State prediction, odds, pick, how to watch College Football

It is a week zero match-up in college football as UMass travels to play New Mexico State. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a UMass-New Mexico State prediction, pick, and how-to watch.

Last season was one to forget for UMass. Don Brown returned to UMass as the head coach last season. He was there from 2004-2008, when UMass was an FCS program, and led them to the playoffs twice, including an appearance in the 2006 FCS National Title game. Last year was his worst season as a head coach though. UMass went 1-11, with the only win coming against FCS Stoney Brook in week three. This was one of the worst offensive units in the nation last year, and expectations are not high this year, with their win total set at 2.5 games and the under being favored.

Meanwhile, New Mexico State, led by Jerry Kill, is coming off just their second bowl appearance since 2000. It was a six-win season regular for the Lobos followed by a victory in the Quick Lane Bowl. Kill improved one of the worst defenses in FCS to one that was respectable. Meanwhile, the offense was efficient in running the ball and did a solid job on the ground. Expectations are for another six-win season, but with 13 games on the schedule, New Mexico State needs seven to make a bowl.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: UMass-New Mexico State Odds

UMass: +7 (-110)

New Mexico State: -7 (-110)

Over: 44.5 (-115)

Under: 44.5 (-105)

How to Watch UMass vs. New Mexico

TV: ESPN

Stream: ESPN App

Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT

*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why UMass Will Cover The Spread

For UMass to make this a game it has to start with Taisun Phommachanh. Last year, UMass was 125th in passing offense and last in scoring, averaging just 12.5 points per game. Phommachanh comes in from Georgia Tech after spending three years at Clemson. He does not have a ton of experience, but he beat out three others for the job and will get the first chance to hold onto the job here. In his career, is about a 50 percent passer and has thrown an interception in each of his appearances.

UMass will also need a step up from their running back. Kay'Ron Adams is back, but he ran just 84 times for 297 yards last year with a score. He did this as a backup last year to Ellis Merriweather, who is now with the New Orleans Saints. Still, as a team, UMass ran for just 1.786 yards on the ground, with a 3.6 yards per carry average. Gino Capiotti could also see some carries in this game. He started games at quarterback last year and ran for 390 yards and three touchdowns. He has moved to tight end this year but can play an H-back role that will allow him to get some carries.

To get this win though, UMass has to play the field position game. They had a fairly average special teams unit last year. The return games were ranked in the bottom third of the nation on kick-offs, but a little higher on punt returns. The defense was solid last year. They were top 15 in the national against the pass and on third-down. They bring back eight starters on that defense as well. Cameron Carson returns as the kicker, and he was 13 for 18 last year with a long of 47 yards. If UMass can get some positive field position, they should be able to stay in this one.

Why New Mexico State Will Cover The Spread

Winning starts with Diego Pavia. He threw for 1,450 yards and 13 touchdowns last year with six interceptions. He was a major reason the Aggies were bowl-eligible. In the last four wins, over UMass, Lamar, Liberty, and Valparaiso, he threw 12 of his 13 touchdowns without throwing an interception. Meanwhile, he also ran for four scores in those games. Pavia ran for over 500 yards and eight scores last year, including 65 yards in the bowl game last year. Against Liberty last year he ran for 125 yards and scored six total touchdowns. Pavia also gets back four of his top five receivers to throw to.

That includes Kordell David and Jonathan Brady. They both were over 300 yards receiving last year with three or more scored each. The offensive line is solid this year, with three returning starters, so Pavia should have time to get the ball down the field to him. If not, he can go to Star Thomas. The running back was a threat out of the backfield with 151 yards receiving and three scores. He also had 525 yards on the ground last year and scored five times. He is part of a tandem with Jomoni Jones. Jones had 383 yards last year and scored six times. He is a solid short yardage back, who if Pavia and company can get into third and short, will convert.

This defense was also very improved last year and brought back a lot of their starters. The defense was 127th in the nation in total defense and 128 in scoring before Kill got there. Last year, they finished 30th in total defense, 57th in third-down defense, and 47th in scoring defense. They allowed just 23.92 points per game last year. If they can snag a turnover or two in this game, it could be a blowout.

Final UMass-New Mexico State Prediction & Pick

The New Mexico State defense does not need to be perfect in this game. The better they are, the more there will be a blowout. UMass does not have a good offense and struggles to move the ball. Meanwhile, their defense will struggle with the shift movements of Star Thomas and Diego Pavia. Those two will have a huge game in this one, and that will help the Aggies control the field position game. Further, the Aggies bring back almost all of their offensive production from last year. This was an offense that improved as the season went on and will continue to get better. Take them to win this one.

Final UMass-New Mexico State Prediction & Pick: New Mexico State -7 (-110)