US Open: Ben Shelton vs. Frances Tiafoe odds, pick & prediciton
The first week of the US Open was played in ideal conditions, but the heat and humidity that this tournament is known for have finally shown up. Temperatures on Tuesday are expected to tip over 90 degrees Fahrenheit, adding a new wrinkle to the quarterfinal matches set to take place at the Billie Jean King Tennis Center.
One of those quarterfinals is an All-American affair between World No. 10 Frances Tiafoe and 20-year-old Ben Shelton. Tiafoe, who made it to the semifinals at last year’s US Open, is a -250 favorite over his compatriot.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton Pick: Analysis
A lot was expected out of Shelton in his first full year on the ATP Tour. The Atlanta native has a monstrous first serve and athleticism to back it up, so there were plenty of people around tennis backing the former Florida Gator to make a big impact and perhaps win a title in 2023.
Shelton has certainly had some high moments, but like almost every other young player he’s been inconsistent and, at times, overly reliant on his serve to get him through matches. You can’t get away with that on the ATP Tour, which is why Shelton’s overall record leaves a lot to be desired. In fact, it’s hard to recall a debut season that’s gone like Shelton’s. He made the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, then went 7-18 in ATP Tour events and is now in the quarters at the US Open.
Frances Tiafoe certainly knows a thing or two about the ups and downs of a young player on the ATP Tour, but those days seem to be behind the Maryland native. Tiafoe is now firmly a top-20 player in the world and is looking to put an exclamation point on a year in which he won three titles.
And Tiafoe should fancy his chances to do just that.
While Shelton was able to navigate a tricky matchup with Tommy Paul in the Round of 16, it was clear that Paul was not at his best in that match and made things pretty easy on his opponent through the first two sets, especially on break points. Paul would start to find his game after that, but by then the margin for error was nil and Shelton saw the match out.
Shelton deserves credit for beating Paul, but I think he could end up getting too much respect for that result and his current run in New York. He’s had some highlight moments -- he was terrific against Aslan Karatseve -- but he’s also benefited from a bit of fortune as well.
Tiafoe’s performance on the other hand has been straightforward. The 25-year-old has had a soft draw, but he’s taken care of business without facing much stress. His win over a very competent Adrian Mannarino stood out as a clinical best-of-5 victory after he dropped the first set.
Shelton’s serve could be an equalizer and send us to a tiebreaker or two, but I trust Tiafoe’s experience, fitness and adaptability to get this match on his terms and keep it there.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton Pick
Frances Tiafoe -4.5 Games (+100, DraftKings)
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