U.S. Women's Open Picks, Odds & Favorites 2023: Roses are Red, Zhang is the Favorite

Minjee Lee will look to defend her U.S. Women's Open Championship at Pebble Beach Golf Links, which she won in dominating fashion last season. However, she'll need to do so against an up-and-coming star in the women's game, Rose Zhang.Read on for our best U.S. Women's Open picks based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.

The U.S. Women's Open Championship will take place at Pebble Beach Golf Links this week, and the betting favorite across the board is LPGA rookie Rose Zhang. Despite being a rookie, Zhang has played in this event four other times, missing the cut twice, and her best finish was a T-40 last year.

We also saw Nelly Korda return from a back injury at the KPMG Women's PGA Championship on June 22, and it was a short week for her as she missed the cut by five strokes, getting an early start on her preparation for the U.S. Women's Open Championship. Korda is trading at the longest price we have seen in a long time for her to win a tournament at +2500. But can we trust the former World No. 1 even at a longer price?

I'll give you a hint. I've placed a bet on Jason Day's pick to win the U.S. Women's Open Championship, and it isn't Zhang, Jin Young Ko, Lexi Thompson, Brooke Henderson, or even the defending champion and fellow Aussie, Minjee Lee.

Let's look at our best U.S. Women's Open picks from our best sports betting sites.

U.S. Women's Open odds

FedEx Cup odds, as well as the 2024 Masters odds, PGA Championship odds, andU.S. Open odds.

U.S. Women's Open picks and predictions 2023

Linn Grant to win (+5000 via FanDuel)

I saw Grant trading at +5000 to win the U.S. Women's Open Championship at Pebble Beach Golf Links, and I couldn't hit the button fast enough to place this bet. Let's see if I can convince you to join me on this bet because I definitely think this price point is worth a unit.

Grant earned her LPGA status in December of 2021, but she hasn't played in many LPGA events due to Covid-19 restrictions and her vaccination status. This has resulted in Grant playing the majority of her events on the Ladies European Tour, allowing her to fly under the radar a bit in this market. I say "a bit" because since March of 2022, she has won five events on the Ladies European Tour, including the Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed, which she won by nine strokes over Henrik Stenson and 14 strokes over the closest women in the field.

I saw quotes from Nelly Korda saying that strokes gained off-the-tee and on approach shots are going to be major keys to being successful this week at Pebble Beach. This plays right into Grant's game, as she is a ball-striking machine. It's only over 12 rounds because they don't have much data on her since she plays on the Ladies European Tour, but so far this season, Grant ranks fourth on the LPGA in strokes gained: off-the-tee with an average of 0.97. Last year, in the five events she played on the LPGA, she gained strokes in all four major categories.

I would also like to highlight that I do believe there's a sense of urgency when placing this bet. Grant opened around +5000 across all of our best sports betting sites, but her price has begun to move.

BetRivers is trading Grant at +2800, DraftKings is at +4000, and BetMGM is at +4500. This movement in her odds is a positive sign that we have identified something with her +5000 price point, but it also means you need to hit the button sooner than later.

Also, watch this video of Grant with the sound on:

I think it's pretty obvious by now that I have a strong stance on Grant this week at the U.S. Women's Open Championship because of the pricing we're seeing available for her in the market. Before I dig deeper into this rogue price, I would also like to point out that Grant has only played in 10 events on the LPGA in the last two seasons and has five top 10 finishes.

This isn't a hedge on the outright ticket, as I know a lot of golf bettors love their each-way bets as a hedge, but I'm not one of those bettors. I'm looking to play offense with my golf bets, not defense. I would be completely comfortable only betting on Grant to win outright at +5000 because I believe she will win and we have an edge in that market.

So why am I also going after her top 10 finish? Simply because bet365 has gone rogue on this pricing, and I can't let them get away with it. DraftKings is trading Grant at +360 for a top 10 finish, PointsBet at +350, and BetRivers is way shorter at +300. It's almost impossible not to hit the button on the +500 when you see everyone else trading Grant's top 10 finish at a shorter price than bet365.

LPGA betting markets heavily rely on recency bias and the "what have you done for me lately" mentality when it comes to their pricing. They simply don't have big enough trading teams paying attention to their markets to dig deeper on all of these golfers. If you don't believe me, just consider the fact that Rose Zhang is the tournament favorite over World No. 1 and two-time major champion Jin Young Ko, who leads the LPGA in strokes gained.

There are always golfers flying under the radar in LPGA betting markets, whether it's Grant playing on the Ladies European Tour or Gabriela Ruffels, who is on the Epson Tour. I don't think many trading teams at sportsbooks are following the Epson Tour, and honestly, it's their loss because Ruffels lost her LPGA card by mistake and is a much better golfer than her current status.

Zhang has been all the rage when it comes to women's golf these last couple of weeks, and she was the 2020 U.S. Women's Amateur Champion. Do you know who she defeated in a playoff to win that title? Ruffels. And Ruffels was also the 2019 U.S. Women's Amateur Champion.

Unlike many of the golfers in the field this week, Ruffels has also played in tournaments at Pebble Beach before. Ball striking will be important this week, as it always is, but that is Ruffels' game, as she averaged 1.62 strokes gained: approach in her last outing at the KPMG Women's PGA Championship.

You can find Ruffels at our best sportsbooks at +25000 to win the US Women's Open, but I prefer to attack her top 20 prop at BetRivers, as I think this is much more realistic for her game. Ruffels has also met the pressure of major championships head-on in her career, with six top 25 finishes in only eight starts at major championships.

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