USA vs Germany Predictions & Odds

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07 September 2023

Team USA and Germany will meet in the semifinals, but it's the Germans who enter as the undefeated team. Rebounding has been a struggle for the Americans, but our FIBA betting picks expect Josh Hart to make an impact on the glass.

While their loss to Lithuania had many fans and pundits making much of Team USA’s flaws, they rebounded in the quarterfinal and made short work of a spirited Italian side. The concerns about the American team were legitimate but overblown, and it may even benefit them in the long run to have known the sting of defeat as they turn now to a semifinal matchup against Germany.

As the only undefeated team remaining in the tournament, the Germans have been one of the most impressive teams in the World Cup. Germany have never beaten Team USA in the World Cup, and they’ll be heavy FIBA World Cup odds underdogs to do so on Friday, September 8.

My FIBA World betting picks and predictions for USA vs. Germany believe Josh Hart will be a difference-maker on the glass.

USA vs Germany odds

USA vs Germany picks and predictions

After a brief glimpse of mortality against Lithuania, Team USA restored order in their dominant 100-63 victory over Italy. But that lone win isn't enough to make the world forget that USA had shown a real crack in their armor, a weakness on the boards that any team with the right personnel should aim to exploit.

That weakness is in part why Brandon Ingram, an All-Star player, was shuttered to the bench in favor of Josh Hart, a superb role player but a role player nonetheless. Not only is Hart’s team-first tendencies a better fit with Anthony Edwards and Jalen Brunson’s preference to play the role of on-ball scorer, but he shored up Jaren Jackson Jr.’s weaknesses on the glass

Hart is simply an outstanding rebounder for his size and position, with his presence of mind on the offensive glass being one of the key reasons that the New York Knicks finished second in offensive rating per Cleaning the Glass last season. If rebounding is the work of a garbage man, then Hart turns garbage into high art.

At just 6-foot-5, Hart gobbled up 18.2% of opponent misses for the Knicks (97th percentile among wings) and added an 8.8% offensive rebounding rate (97th percentile). As Erik Spoelstra noted about Hart “'Some people get 50-50 balls, but he gets the 30-70 balls.”. And Hart’s ability to play big will be needed against Germany.

Germany are not Lithuania, but they do present challenges at the forward and center spot that Italy simply did not. They have several key contributors — Daniel Theis, Johannes Thiemann, Moritz, and Franz Wagner — who are 6-foot-9 and taller and mobile as well.

Franz had missed every game since Germany’s opening tilt against Japan due to an ankle injury but looked himself as he turned in a well-rounded performance against Latvia — adding 17 points, eight boards, and three assists. With another day off and further time to rebuild his conditioning, Franz could play closer to 30 minutes on Friday. That makes Hart a good candidate to play north of 20 minutes, as he’s one of the bigger players on a fairly diminutive USA roster.

Hart’s averaging six rebounds per game in the tournament, and a pair of out of character performances against Italy and Lithuania has depressed this prop line. I’m expecting increased opportunity and a return to form to see him through here.

My best bet: Josh Hart Over 4.5 rebounds (-115 at DraftKings)

USA vs Germany same-game parlay

Hart Ovr 4.5 rebounds

Schroder Over 17.5 points

Under 179.5

For my same=game parlay, I’m taking the Over on Dennis Schroder’s points prop as well as the Under at 179.5 to pair with Hart’s rebounding prop.

Schroder is coming off his worst game of the tournament — a 4-for-26 disaster where he scored just nine points — but Schroder had been dynamic in the tournament until that point, and just the fact that his team empowered him to take that many shots in a do-or-die game is a strong point in this props favor.

Schroder could also be a problem because Team USA don't have any amazing small guard defenders. It’s possible Anthony Edwards could do it, but Schroder's speed and smaller stature will make him a tough cover. Edwards can also get lost off the ball at times, and Schroder at his best is perpetually moving and cutting off ball around Germany's skilled passing bigs.

This total has also moved significantly higher since opening, so I’m inclined to take the 3.5 free points and bet against the public here yet again.

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USA vs Germany spread and Over/Under analysis

The line opened with the Americans getting a 10.5 to 11.5-point edge before dropping around -10.5 and -9.5 at most sportsbooks, and I’d be surprised to see any major movement here. While the line for the game against Italy was set in the same range out of a misperception of Italy’s quality and the magnitude of USA’s flaws, this line is much closer to on the money.

Germany are the only remaining undefeated team in the tournament, with wins over Latvia, Slovenia, and Australia being their most impressive. Australia were one of the teams considered most likely to medal and Slovenia are always dangerous with Luka. That Germany went undefeated largely without the services of their best player speaks to their depth, and Franz will be a focal point of Steve Kerr's defensive game plan.

While Lithuania was able to expose Team USA’s key weakness on the glass, Italy had no such advantage to speak of. Germany are more akin to Italy in that regard than Lithuania, but an altogether better team.

The German bigs aren’t snipers, but they’ll take enough 3-pointers between Wagner and even Daniel Theis that Team USA will have to decide between letting them shoot and having JJJ or Walker Kessler roam to the perimeter. That’s where Schroder's ability as a driver could really be unlocked.

The total meanwhile opened in the range of 176 to 177.5 but has risen as high as 179.5 at some sportsbooks. For all the criticism that Team USA's offense has received throughout their tournament run, they still own the No. 1 overall ranking in points per game and the second highest field goal percentage. USA have scored about 10 points more per game on average than Germany.

The Germans are going to struggle to contain the Americans, as while they have a lot of good forwards and bigs, Schroder and Isaac Bonga are not on the level to defend Brunson, Edwards, or Tyrese Haliburton.