USA vs Italy Predictions & Odds

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04 September 2023

Following a surprise loss to Lithuania, are cracks showing in Team USA's armor? Does Italy stand a chance? Our betting picks don't expect the Italians to put up much of a fight and the early lines may have been set a bit too low.

The FIBA World Cup just keeps delivering stunner after stunner. Two days after Canada and Spain suffered upset defeats that put their tournament hopes on life support, the heavy FIBA World Cup odds favorite, Team USA, fell to Lithuania. While the loss didn’t prevent the Americans from advancing to the quarterfinals — where they’ll face off against Italy on Tuesday, September 5 — it showed that this USA team can be beaten.

Will Team USA rally in a do-or-die game against an experienced Italian side? Or will Italy pull off the mother of all upsets?

Our FIBA World Cup picks and predictions for USA vs. Italy believe that the Americans will right the ship entering the knockout rounds.

USA vs Italy odds

USA vs Italy picks and predictions

While many people were still rubbing the sleep from their eyes on Sunday morning, Team USA fans were in for a rude awakening when they got around to checking the box scores. Lithuania jumped out to an enormous first-quarter lead and though Anthony Edwards and the rest of the squad did their best to close the gap, they never quite managed the comeback.

Team USA suffered their first defeat of the tournament to Lithuania, and it’s the last game they can afford to lose as they enter the knockout rounds of the FIBA World Cup, beginning with a fixture against Italy on Tuesday.

But while the loss exposed the Americans' very real weakness on the glass, I believe the odds are overreacting to this one defeat. Not only do I expect a better version of Team USA to arrive on Tuesday, but Italy is not nearly as complete a team as Lithuania.

Size was a problem for Team USA, as was expected. And Lithuania had a combination of players in Jonas Valanciunas and Tadas Sedekerskis who helped beat Jaren Jackson Jr. and Walker Kessler up on the boards. Team USA was afraid to send help when Lithuania had advantageous switches, and the Lithuanians promptly punished them by repeatedly posting up mismatches inside.

But it should also be said that the Lithuanians did benefit from some absolutely insane shot-making. Every time Team USA threatened to close the gap down the stretch, one of their players made a ridiculous shot despite outstanding defensive pressure.

If Team USA allowed Lithuania those same shots again over 40 minutes, the odds would be against them shooting nearly as well. Italy is also a much poorer shooting team than Lithuania and will be more susceptible to Team USA’s length and ball pressure from guys like Edwards and Mikal Bridges.

Italy ranks in the Top 5 in the tournament in 3-point attempt rate, and that’s typically a big feature of their attack. But they just haven’t been falling during the World Cup, hitting only 31.4% from deep. They’ll be facing much more difficult ball pressure against Team USA, and perhaps more importantly, will struggle to draw two to the ball to create open looks from the corner. Team USA can just trust Jackson or Kessler to stop anyone who touches paint without the need to panic and leave open shooters.

Another major reason to be bullish on Team USA’s chances to cover is the free throw shooting disparity. Unlike 3-point shooting that waxes and wanes, free throws are not only one of the most efficient ways to score, but they’re also one of the most reliable. All things being equal, differences in FT attempts can be decisive.

Team USA leads the tournament with a whopping 27.6 free throw attempts per game, which is a full 10 more than Italy, who manage just 17.6 per game. That alone would suggest a close to 10-point margin of victory for Team USA without accounting for other factors.

This line is likely going to balloon before tip-off on Tuesday, but right now I think the spread is far too favorable to Italy. Jump on it while you can.

My best bet: USA -15.5 (-115 at bet365)

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USA vs Italy spread and Over/Under analysis

Team USA’s shocking defeat saw this spread open at a modest -12.5 favoring the American side, and that has steadily climbed as high as 16.5. While I’m normally an advocate for betting against the public and taking the free points, this line just seemed poorly set. As more bets pour in over Monday, the gap is only going to keep growing.

Italy is the 10th-ranked team in the World, but they didn’t have to go through a murderer's row to get to this point of the tournament. They eventually beat Angola and were dominated by Karl-Anthony Towns and the Dominican Republic. They did eke out a two-point win over Serbia, but they should be thoroughly outclassed here.

A lot of Italy’s offense begins by pressuring the post, but that’s only to trigger off-ball movement for a perimeter shot. And like many European teams, they make liberal use of Stack or Spain pick and roll at the top of the arc to get their ballhandlers attacking downhill, that’s usually with a mind to drive and kick.

When they freelance, it’s forwards like Simone Fontecchio working for the inside position or blowing by their man to attack the rim. This is solid enough stuff, but it’s nothing Steve Kerr and his staff can’t account for. There isn’t a single area where Italy has a glaring advantage to the degree that Lithuania did.

The total for Tuesday’s tilt has come in between 176 and 176.5 at most sportsbooks, though it's now ticked up to around 178.5. This total depends on a few aspects to my mind. For one, do the Italians discover their pre-tournament shooting touch?

While they haven’t shown much to write home about so far at the World Cup, Italy’s offense should not be totally discounted either. They had the best offense by a mile in the European qualifiers ahead of the World Cup. Italy is a high-volume 3-point shooting team, and just that fact creates a level of variance even if they’ve been on a cold streak.

I’m much more of a believer in Team USA’s offense, and expect they’ll dominate this one from the line and inside the arc. What might see this go Under is if Kerr decides to lean into their more defensive lineups if they get off to a cold start again.