USA vs Lithuania Predictions & Odds

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02 September 2023

While Team USA may be double-digit point favorites on Sunday, Jonas Valanciunas will be a rebounding nightmare for Steve Kerr's squad. Read more to find out why the New Orleans Pelicans center headlines our USA vs. Lithuania betting picks.

With the various upsets that rocked international basketball on Saturday, only four teams remain undefeated in the FIBA World Cup. Two of them are Team USA and Lithuania, who face off on Sunday with the top position in Group J hanging in the balance.

Last time out, the USA experienced their first adversity of the tournament against Nikola Vucevic and Montenegro, facing a one-possession game well into the fourth quarter before ultimately pulling away. Meanwhile, Lithuania has blown the doors off the competition but remain a FIBA World Cup odds longshot.

Read along as our FIBA World Cup picks and predictions for USA vs. Lithuania believe the Americans are going to struggle to contain Jonas Valanciunas on the glass.

USA vs Lithuania odds

USA vs Lithuania picks and predictions

“No rebounds — no rings.” This oft-quoted NBA aphorism remains as true today as it did when Pat Riley quipped it back in the 80s. And while Team USA hasn’t abandoned the glass, it does remain one of their only real weaknesses as the knockout rounds loom at the FIBA World Cup.

That weakness is going to be put under a magnifying glance on Sunday, as the Americans face off against Jonas Valanciunas and Lithuania. Valanciunas is one of the best rebounders in the NBA, and he’s been on a tear so far in the tournament. He’s seven feet tall and 265 pounds with great hands, and if boxing out is truly a lost art, he’s one of its few remaining maestros.

On a per-possession basis, Valanciunas was one of the best rebounders in the NBA last season. Per Cleaning the Glass, he gobbled up 28.6% of opponent-missed field goals — both a career-best and in the 99th percentile among all big men. He’s been in the 90th percentile or higher in terms of defensive rebounding in seven of the last eight seasons and was also in the 83rd percentile among offensive rebounders for his position at 11.8%. The guy just eats glass.

JV is averaging 9.8 rebounds per game in the World Cup, but that number is artificially lowered because Lithuania has been hammering the opposition. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 25.2 points, which has allowed them to ease the workload on Valanciunas and their other star players. JV has played 21 or fewer minutes in three of the four games, so to be averaging just shy of 10 boards per contest is mighty impressive.

Lithuania will be afforded no such luxuries against Team USA, and JV’s ability to beat Jaren Jackson Jr. and company up on the boards is going to be one of their few clear advantages.

While a superior player in most respects at this point in his career, Jackson Jr. is a poor rebounder for his position and pales in comparison to Valanciunas. Per Cleaning the Glass, his 16% rebounding rate on the defensive glass and 5.8% clip on the offensive side of the ball last season ranked in the 38th and 29th percentile among bigs.

Against a true rebounding artiste like JV, that gap is likely to prove a serious problem. Walker Kessler is a bit better but still doesn’t hold a candle to Valanciunas. While increasing Josh Hart’s role on the team has mitigated their rebounding issues some, he’s still not going to win many contests on the glass against JV.

Lithuania is going to need to generate extra possessions to have a chance against Team USA, as well as limiting them to a single shot on offense. That should mean a heavy workload for Valanciunas and plenty of opportunity to exceed this prop.

My best bet: Jonas Valanciunas Over 9.5 rebounds (-108 at FanDuel)

USA vs Lithuania same-game parlay

Lithuania +15.5 (-115)

Over 178.5 (-115)

Jalen Brunson 10+ points (-130)

While JV’s rebounding prop is off the board for inclusion in a same-game parlay for Sunday's game, we still have a trio of appetizing options available. I’m going with a Lithuania cover, paired with Over 178.5 total points, as well as Jalen Brunson to score 10+ points.

Lithuania’s advantage on the boards should have material consequences in this matchup that help keep this game competitive. There’s also a non-zero chance that JV’s work on the glass helps put Jackson Jr. into early foul trouble, which would further enable Rokas and the other Lithuanian guards to drive and score on the inside.

The Over seems like the play here because JV is going to have a large role, and his inability to protect the rim at a high level means the driving lanes are going to be open for Brunson and Anthony Edwards. I expect Brunson to use his strength to overwhelm Rokas in the post and don’t believe Valanciunas’ presence will do much to inhibit him in the paint.

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USA vs Lithuania spread and Over/Under analysis

Interestingly enough, the line for Sunday’s game opened at USA -16.5 but has shortened a full point. Bettors are not underestimating Lithuania, which in general I think is smart.

To the uninformed, some might not realize that Lithuania is a basketball country. However, Latvian basketball has been the premier sport in Lithuania for a long time, and they’ve produced a bevy of current and former NBA-affiliated players that dot their national team. That group includes Valanciunas, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Donatas Motiejunas, and Ignas Brazdeikis.

Their lead guard Rokas Jokubaitis was also a New York Knicks draft and stash pick, and the young guard has been tearing it up for FC Barcelona in the Euroleague and has impressed during tournament play. Lithuania have a lot of players with NBA-level skills, possess great continuity, and could very well give Team USA some problems on Sunday.

Given the difficulties the USA suffered closing out Montenegro, I’d lean towards a Lithuania cover here.

The total has moved up a point to 178.5, and that movement is likely to continue on an upward trajectory as bettors realize just how good Lithuania has been on offense at the World Cup.

This is a matchup between the best and the fifth-best offense respectively between Team USA and Lithuania, as well as the top two teams in terms of field goal percentage where Lithuania ranks No. 1 overall. Lithuania has a balanced attack, with a spread floor surrounding Valanciunas on the block.

They’re not a one-trick pony, and they can win without relying on overly hot shooting. That said, they do have legit shooters. They’re taking 25 threes per game and hitting them at a 44% clip, and that level of efficiency is dangerous against any team.

By contrast, the Americans are only shooting 36.4% from downtown, and instead have relied on the driving games of players like Edwards and Brunson. Those players should have great success on Sunday, because though he’s good at a lot of things, Valanciunas is not a plus rim protector at this point in his career.