USC football among Top 10 of ESPN's initial FPI rankings; projects better defense, CFP odds

USC football sat firmly as a Top 10 program in the initial ESPN Football Power Index ratings for the 2023 season on Monday. The Trojans were ranked No. 7, the highest ranked Pac-12 program over Oregon (No. 13) and Utah (No. 15). ESPN's Bill Connerly's SP+ initial preseason rankings placed the Trojans at No. 10. 

Here is a quick reminder of how the FPI works: 

FPI is our season-long ratings and projections system. In the preseason it relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, resulting in our projections.

The FPI also gives odds for big season markers, such as winning a conference championship, making the College Football Playoff and winning a national championship. USC was given a three percent chance to win the 2023 national championship along with Clemson. 

Despite the low national title odds, the FPI is bullish on the Trojans competing for a playoff spot, giving them a 25 percent shot to make the CFP, the best chance in the Pac-12. The only schools with a better shot are Michigan (25 percent), Texas (34 percent), Alabama (62 percent), Georgia (63 percent) and Ohio State (82 percent). Overall, FPI gives the Pac-12 a 34 percent chance of sending a representative to the playoff, up from eight percent in 2022. 

In terms of the Pac-12, USC has the best chance to win the conference at 50.2 percent via FPI, the third-best odds in the country. The next best odds in the Pac-12 go to Utah at 17 percent, just ahead of Oregon at 16.9 percent. It also puts USC's projected win total at 10.3 games. The rating gives USC a 4.6 chance to go undefeated. 

USC is coming off an 11-3 campaign after just four wins in 2021. While USC had some impressive wins, including both Notre Dame and UCLA, the season ended on a painful note with a blowout loss to Utah in the 2022 Pac-12 Championship and a fourth-quarter collapse against Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. The Trojans figure to be a consensus preseason Top 10 team going into next season with the return of 2022 Heisman winner and star quarterbackCaleb Williams.

The biggest factor for the Trojans and a potential playoff run will be on defensive coordinator Alex Grinch and the defense, which ended the year on a bad note. USC head coach Lincoln Riley opted to bring Grinch back for another season. 

"I've been through it enough with that guy to know, don't bet against him. Anybody in a situation like this where we know we need to take a big jump in all areas, and we need to be better as coaches. We need to be better as players. We need to own the things that we did well. We need to own and fix the things we didn't do well," said Riley. "I just know what he's made of. I just do. And I know what's getting ready to happen defensively. And so, I just have a confidence and a belief, and not just Alex, but the other guys in the room. I believe in the quality of people that we have in there."

FPI actually projects a big jump for the Trojan defense in 2023, modeling them with the 36th-best defense in the country; USC finished 86th in defensive efficiently per FPI.